EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Both UW-CIMSS ADT and TAFB are currently at T6.0/115kt, whereas SAB is at T5.5/102kt. A perfect blend of the three estimates would yield 110kt. I'm not sure it's quite there yet, but it may be by 21z if intensification continues.

[Kingarabian]

How'd you get TAFB numbers?

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 15:14:36 N Lon : 118:26:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 948.4mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : -9.8C Cloud Region Temp : -69.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.1 degrees

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

:uarrow: How'd you get TAFB numbers?

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 180000 UTC
Lat : 15:14:36 N Lon : 118:26:59 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 948.4mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : -9.8C Cloud Region Temp : -69.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.1 degrees

Link

Scroll all the way down.

[Kingarabian]

Scroll all the way down.

Ohhh nice! For the longest time I thought they were private.

Edit:

TAFB provides the National Hurricane Center with position estimates of tropical cyclones every three hours and intensity estimates every six hours. Intensity estimates use the Dvorak technique, which is a statistical system using observed satellite cloud pattern and a set of rules to produce a current estimate of a cyclone's strength. Estimates can be made from both visible and infrared satellite imagery. The Dvorak technique is the main tool for determining tropical cyclone strength when it is out of range of reconnaissance aircraft.

TAFB also provides NHC with position and intensity estimates for subtropical cyclones (a hybrid between tropical cyclones and frontal or extratropical cyclones) using the Herbert-Poteat technique.

TAFB's position and intensity estimates are not currently available to the public. However, the intensity estimates (called T numbers, CI numbers, and ST numbers), are often referred to in NHC's Tropical Cyclone Discussions and Preliminary Reports. The following table (taken from the reports mentioned below) gives the approximate wind and pressure values for the CI and ST numbers.

[Yellow Evan]

Honestly, I'd go 110, but I can understand going 105.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it can push for Cat. 4.

[Yellow Evan]

Agreed but on the Dvorak satellite, the W band needs to wrap around .5 degrees before I can be convinced it is one.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 15:15:32 N Lon : 118:23:43 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 948.4mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -9.3C Cloud Region Temp : -69.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.2 degrees

[Kingarabian]

Really looking good.

[Yellow Evan]

Current Intensity Analysis




UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 15:14:49 N Lon : 118:35:58 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 946.3mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +0.6C Cloud Region Temp : -67.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.0 degrees

[cycloneye]

Historic perspective about having a major in May west of 118W.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 44m44 minutes ago
#Andres could be the farthest W a May MH has ever developed ~118W-can only even find 1 in June that far W--Douglas 84

[Yellow Evan]

Historic perspective about having a major in May west of 118W.

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 44m44 minutes ago
#Andres could be the farthest W a May MH has ever developed ~118W-can only even find 1 in June that far W--Douglas 84

Also the 5th May major ever, all after 2001, and 3rd in 4 years.

EPAC has a lot of quricks pre-1995 that is recently getting exposed.

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like Andres is developing a stadium to me.

Also don't see any signs of weakening and its outflow is still good. This should make it to Category 4.

[Yellow Evan]

ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE ANDRES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
2100 UTC SUN MAY 31 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 118.8W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 118.8W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 118.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 15.5N 119.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 16.3N 121.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 17.2N 122.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 18.2N 124.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 95NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.5N 126.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 20.0N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 20.5N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 118.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Yellow Evan]

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Andres are affecting portions of the west
coast of the Baja California peninsula. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE ANDRES DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012015
200 PM PDT SUN MAY 31 2015

The satellite presentation of Andres has improved considerably since
this morning. The eye has become more distinct and warmed in
infrared imagery, and is now surrounded by a ring of cloud tops of
about -60C to -70C. Objective and subjective Dvorak estimates have
increased, and currently range from T5.5/102 kt to T6.1/117 kt. The
initial intensity has been raised to 110 kt for this advisory.
Beyond the observed intensity increase today, the overall intensity
forecast reasoning has not changed. The cyclone will be moving over
cooler waters during the forecast period, and should cross the 26C
isotherm in about 36 hours, which should result in weakening. More
rapid weakening forecast at 48 hours and beyond, with Andres
forecast to become a remnant low in about 4 days as the shear
increases over very cool SSTs. The new NHC intensity forecast is
higher than the previous one through 48 hours to account for the
initial intensity, and is similar after that. The official
forecast is generally close to the IVCN intensity consensus.

The hurricane has jogged to the left since this morning, with an
initial motion of 270/07. Andres should gradually turn poleward
during the next several days as a weakness develops in the
subtropical ridge around 125W. There remains a fair bit of spread
in the track guidance throughout the period. The UKMET and ECMWF
are initially to the left of the rest of the guidance for the first
12 to 24 hours, and the NHC forecast trends towards those aids given
the more westerly initial motion. Late in the period, all of the
dynamical models now show a turn toward the north and northeast, but
significant spread remains. Given that Andres should be sheared
apart by days 4 and 5, the NHC forecast shows only a slow northward
drift, in better agreement with the ECMWF and GEFS ensemble mean.
The GFS remains an outlier with a track that appears to go too far
to the northeast for such a weak system. Beyond 24 hours, the new
NHC track is similar to or a little to the right of the previous
one, adjusted for the initial position and motion, and lies
a little to the left of the multi-model consensus.

The initial 34-kt and 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on a
recent ASCAT pass.

Andres is only the fifth major hurricane to form in the basin in
May since reliable records began in 1970. Previous May major
hurricanes were Adolph (2001), Alma (2002), Bud (2012), and Amanda
(2014).

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 15.3N 118.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 15.5N 119.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 16.3N 121.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 17.2N 122.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 18.2N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 19.5N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 20.0N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 05/1800Z 20.5N 126.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 15:14:50 N Lon : 118:38:57 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 946.3mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.1 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : -2.8C Cloud Region Temp : -67.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.0 degrees

[Kingarabian]

Eye is clearing out and that red circle is almost complete. Closing in on Cat. 4.

[Yellow Evan]

I'd like to see slightly more balanced cloud tops though.