ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Next recon mission is scheduled to depart at 5pm EDT.

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
A. 15/2330Z, 16/0530Z
B. AFXXX 0302A CYCLONE
C. 15/2100Z
D. 26.8N 95.2W
E. 15/2315Z TO 16/0530Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php

[Tireman4]

I'm having doubts at this point that they'll upgrade it at all if they say it doesn't qualify, as the models don't really show it getting any better organized than it currently is, and if we wait for the next plane (tomorrow correct?) it'll probably be inland by then.

Oh it is getting better organized. Look at it. Each frame the wraparound is becoming tighter...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[psyclone]

I suspect this will get an upgrade. Regardless, the NHC has been warning of TS conditions coming to the TX/LA coast for several forecast cycles. I think they're (as usual) doing a fine job. I like a steady hand at the controls.

[Hammy]

I'm having doubts at this point that they'll upgrade it at all if they say it doesn't qualify, as the models don't really show it getting any better organized than it currently is, and if we wait for the next plane (tomorrow correct?) it'll probably be inland by then.

Oh it is getting better organized. Look at it. Each frame the wraparound is becoming tighter...

Thing is, the last several runs of all the models have shown weakening during the last 24 hours prior to landfall.

[ROCK]

Thanks good to be back and hope to contribute to the conversation some....

[Houstonia]

Interesting article http://mashable.com/2015/06/15/texas-floods-brown-ocean-storm/?utm_cid=mash-com-Tw-main-link

Not sure how reliable the source is or how true the statements are. It is relevant to this storm. Some quotes:

In a fascinating but unwelcome twist, the record wet month of May — and more recent rains in June — may give rise to a rare meteorological event, known as a "brown ocean" storm.

In short, the tropical system trying to organize over the Gulf of Mexico may defy the common knowledge about hurricanes and tropical storms. The storm may actually intensify as it moves inland, rather than fall apart.

and

There are exceptions to the rule because these storms can feed off unusually moist soil, which provide the necessary heat for tropical weather systems, according to studies by University of Georgia meteorologists Theresa Anderson and Marshall Shepherd.

[Nederlander]

The western part of the system is definitely improving, looking more circular instead of elongated.

What does that mean concerning the track? Would it make it more of a S. TX hit instead of what's been said about a middle or upper TX coast hit?

Thanks.

It means the models can initialize better. Track is still looking toward middle TX coast with abundant precipitation and gusty winds to the east of there.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Extratropical94]

No hint of an upgrade here:
AL, 91, 2015061518, , BEST, 0, 255N, 930W, 40, 1007, LO

[Stormcenter]

Well it's not like the models could wrong right?

I'm having doubts at this point that they'll upgrade it at all if they say it doesn't qualify, as the models don't really show it getting any better organized than it currently is, and if we wait for the next plane (tomorrow correct?) it'll probably be inland by then.

Oh it is getting better organized. Look at it. Each frame the wraparound is becoming tighter...

Thing is, the last several runs of all the models have shown weakening during the last 24 hours prior to landfall.

[BigA]

So let me get this straight... The NHC can't issue Watches/Warnings until the system is upgraded? Even if they expect it to be named within the next 12 hours? Seems to me that it should be more important to notify the public via watches/warnings when it's certain those conditions will be experienced in the next 24-48 hours rather than be politically correct on defining a tropical cyclone. Am I wrong here?

I don't think you are wrong at all. I find it pretty pathetic they haven't issued watches/warnings yet. Many places of employment are probably waiting on this to make decisions. I would bet a lot of money this is named soon. They have to notify the public. Especially as this is strengthening rather quickly as it approaches. Storms under rapid intensification making landfall are very dangerous and often catch people off guard

Based on the NHC director's Twitter comments, it looks like the NHC is working on developing a way to issue tropical cyclone watches and warnings before a system develops. This is a good idea, despite the confusion it could cause among people who think that tropical storm warnings imply the existence of a tropical storm at that time. This is because what matters is alerting the public to hazardous conditions, not the specific structure of the entity causing the hazardous conditions. So the NHC does a fine job now, and they will likely do even better once the new procedures for warning are implemented.

I think a lot of the hesitance to issue watches/warnings before TC formation is due to the fact that TCs are objectively defined and have names. For example, no one minds when winter storm watches are issued before a winter storm forms; however, with a TC, watches and warnings are expected to be associated with a specific defined storm with a specific name. If this is not the case, people will wonder (or be expected to wonder) why there isn't a specific TC associated with the watches/warnings.

As for 91L, given the 90% chance of development and the ~24 hour proximity to land, this is an excellent example case for when pre-formation watches/warnings would be useful. But hopefully local meteorologists have been alerting folks to the hazards for some time, as this pattern has been reasonably well-forecasted.

[Portastorm]

Quick observation on my part but it does look like 91L is getting its act together in a hurry. Shades of Humberto as it organized on approach. Got to think land friction aids in development. Just my 2 cents.

Hey ... look who woke up!!

Good to see you and concur with your thoughts. How many times have we seen an intensifying storm make landfall along the Texas coast and the frictional effect enhance that intensification? Humberto and Claudette come to mind.

[galaxy401]

Hope Texas won't get a lot of heavy rainfall from "Bill". That area (and the region) has seen enough rain for now.

[Tireman4]

From Eric Berger our Sci Guy at the Houston Chronicle...

I've just had a look at the new run of the European forecast model. While I'm not allowed to share its output in detail, it's safe to say that it is trending west like some other computer models. This brings the core of the heaviest rains west of Houston, generally from Corpus Christi, up to Austin and then up the Interstate 35 corridor.

I'm not saying Houston won't flood significantly, but for those concerned about that possibility I'd be cautiously optimistic.



I told him this was a big system and that is one model...
His response...

It's one model, but it's a very important model and it's seeing what other models are apparently seeing.

Not sure I would go there.

https://www.facebook.com/ericbergersciguy?fref=nf

[mcheer23]

12z EURO only puts 1-3 inches across Houston.

[jasons2k]

I wouldn't trust the models since the center is north/east of where they are initializing. I expect a right shift.

I've also seen a LOT of named storms over the years that were a lot more disorganized than this.

[EquusStorm]

Classified as such or not, this has got to be at least a weak tropical storm at this point. Circulation peculiarities notwithstanding. I echo the many others here who mention that there have been more than a few other tropical storms classified with less organization than this one. That said, even with its very impressive satellite character, perhaps said other storms had a -more- clearly defined low level center, and I doubt recon was available to confirm specifics in some of those cases. But I digress... I shall call 91L Proto-Bill.

[ROCK]

Quick observation on my part but it does look like 91L is getting its act together in a hurry. Shades of Humberto as it organized on approach. Got to think land friction aids in development. Just my 2 cents.

Hey ... look who woke up!!

Good to see you and concur with your thoughts. How many times have we seen an intensifying storm make landfall along the Texas coast and the frictional effect enhance that intensification? Humberto and Claudette come to mind.

Lol I was in exile Port....Alicia and I would even mention Ike in that group to some extent.

[Tireman4]

I wouldn't trust the models since the center is north/east of where they are initializing. I expect a right shift.

I've also seen a LOT of named storms over the years that were a lot more disorganized than this.

Yeah I know...Hello...Ike.....LOL...Remember, models had him to Brownsville, then it started moving right. I do not want this thing, but to say that on a public forum and folks will take it as fact...uughh....

[tolakram]

New burst of convection near what may be the center.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-94&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&mapcolor=gray&numframes=10

[Portastorm]

From Eric Berger our Sci Guy at the Houston Chronicle...

I've just had a look at the new run of the European forecast model. While I'm not allowed to share its output in detail, it's safe to say that it is trending west like some other computer models. This brings the core of the heaviest rains west of Houston, generally from Corpus Christi, up to Austin and then up the Interstate 35 corridor.

I'm not saying Houston won't flood significantly, but for those concerned about that possibility I'd be cautiously optimistic.



I told him this was a big system and that is one model...
His response...

It's one model, but it's a very important model and it's seeing what other models are apparently seeing.

Not sure I would go there.

https://www.facebook.com/ericbergersciguy?fref=nf

Technically he is right. The 12z Euro run shifts to a scenario which the GFS op runs have been suggesting for the last few cycles. That being said, I'm not gassing up the Portastorm Weather Center chaser boat just yet.