ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[deltadog03]

Looks like Danny continues to book west, but it seems the model guidance consensus is for it to be heading WNW by now. I wonder if we will see some west shifts with the models to account for the more west movement?

I agree...I still think this **could** get all the way back to the EGOM obviously have to develop first..lol

[tolakram]

When we need it, it always misses. /pessimist.

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I'm not sure I see the LLC in the RAMDIS nighttime visible, too low resolution and many times a mid level circulation is what is showing up.

It's a sheared system at the moment so the only thing that really matters is some confirmation of west winds. Very hard to get when a system is also moving to the west at such a high rate of speed. IMO.

[northjaxpro]

Looks like Danny continues to book west, but it seems the model guidance consensus is for it to be heading WNW by now. I wonder if we will see some west shifts with the models to account for the more west movement?

If the models are underestimating the strength of that ridge currently steering 98L into tomorrow, it is possible you may see a shift with thr models. We obviously have a rather potent ridge out there currentlywith the system being steered 20-25 mph westward at this current time. 98L sounds struggling to get vertically stacked with this fast movement right now.

[cycloneye]

New pass is here.Not closed yet.

[northjaxpro]

Yep, not closed yet.

[EquusStorm]

Aaaand wow. If this thing weren't moving so quickly I suspect it would have closed off long ago with how organized it seems to be.

[WPBWeather]

Is it just me or does it seem that the NHC is often a little more conservative recently with pulling the trigger to initiate advisories? Not that this is a bad thing, and I'm sure it's always been the case to a certain extent, but this year particularly.

Edit, aaaand wow. If this thing weren't moving so quickly I suspect it would have closed off long ago with how organized it seems to be.

Some of these decisions have become politicized, unfortunately. If you are a GS 12 or something forecaster at the place you mention, your (wrong) decision can affect millions of people and cost billions of dollars. And your decision will need to be vetted by non weather politicos now too. Everything is different after Katrina.

PS this may need to be in a non 98L thread.

[Alyono]

Is it just me or does it seem that the NHC is often a little more conservative recently with pulling the trigger to initiate advisories? Not that this is a bad thing, and I'm sure it's always been the case to a certain extent, but this year particularly.

Edit, aaaand wow. If this thing weren't moving so quickly I suspect it would have closed off long ago with how organized it seems to be.

Some of these decisions have become politicized, unfortunately. If you are a GS 12 or something forecaster at the place you mention, your (wrong) decision can affect millions of people and cost billions of dollars. And your decision will need to be vetted by non weather politicos now too. Everything is different after Katrina.

PS this may need to be in a non 98L thread.

make that a G14 forecaster and a G15 supervisor

[Blown Away]

ASCAT shows almost closed low with winds to support a TS... Tough call for NHC because if the committ they will likely have to issue a "Watch" for the NE Caribbean and the 5 day cone will be pointing towards the SE Bahamas and SFL... What symbol do you put at the 5 day?? Conservative with TS or Hurricane and freak out SFL... Not an easy situation with 98L moving so fast...

[gatorcane]

ASCAT shows almost closed low with winds to support a TS... Tough call for NHC because if the committ they will likely have to issue a "Watch" for the NE Caribbean and the 5 day cone will be pointing towards the SE Bahamas and SFL... What symbol do you put at the 5 day?? Conservative with TS or Hurricane and freak out SFL... Not an easy situation with 98L moving so fast...

I think they will show the track hinting at a recurve east of the Bahamas for their initial track which is close to the latest TVCN track.

[tolakram]

Please stick to 98L and not on the opinions of the NHC. There's really no room for that here or at Storm2k as a whole.

[Blown Away]

Please stick to 98L and not on the opinions of the NHC. There's really no room for that here or at Storm2k as a whole.

Ok, but this is normal fun chatter for this situation... Many times in the past we start guessing when they pull the trigger and the initial track... I'll respect your request.

[MGC]

Still a strong wave at the surface...no upgrade tonight I think....MGC

[Bocadude85]

ASCAT shows almost closed low with winds to support a TS... Tough call for NHC because if the committ they will likely have to issue a "Watch" for the NE Caribbean and the 5 day cone will be pointing towards the SE Bahamas and SFL... What symbol do you put at the 5 day?? Conservative with TS or Hurricane and freak out SFL... Not an easy situation with 98L moving so fast...

I think they will show the track hinting at a recurve east of the Bahamas for their initial track which is close to the latest TVCN track.

That would be my guess also. No need to create an immediate media frenzy.

[Hammy]

Looks like no upgrade until tomorrow evening at the earliest, when the plane gets there, and it'll probably be even less organized by then given what models are showing. I think it missed it's chance for about a week and will either have to manage a recurve, slow down, or end up in favorable conditions in the Gulf in order to develop, and none of these really seem particularly likely.

[floridasun78]

nhc like issue watch at 5am or ask gov of islands to do it then 11pm alot people islands at bed

[chaser1]

Please stick to 98L and not on the opinions of the NHC. There's really no room for that here or at Storm2k as a whole.

True enough, plus no one here is technically liable for the decisions that NHC need/need not make. Having said all that, plus the fact that the Ascat did show a plethora of West winds (even if they were 3-4 degrees removed from the center of an apperant circulation center)... hands down, "i'd" be classififying this a tropical depression. Ultimately though, this entire conversation is mute anyway. More importantly, how much will it intensify and where will it go will be the only factors that will really impact the lives and safety of others.

[Hammy]

Having said all that, plus the fact that the Ascat did show a plethora of West winds (even if they were 3-4 degrees removed from the center of an apperant circulation center)... hands down, "i'd" be classififying this a tropical depression.

I think it may be the lack of northwest winds in this particular case that are preventing an upgrade.

[tolakram]

Please stick to 98L and not on the opinions of the NHC. There's really no room for that here or at Storm2k as a whole.

Ok, but this is normal fun chatter for this situation... Many times in the past we start guessing when they pull the trigger and the initial track... I'll respect your request.

Sorry Blown Away, my comment was not directed at normal chatter but rather the so called politicization of NHC decisions. We choose to specifically avoid those kinds of subjects. Thanks.


So, to 98L, how many times have we seen systems racing west unable to close off? I really don't think it will be upgraded any time soon, but of course I could be wrong.

[JPmia]

Looks like Danny continues to book west, but it seems the model guidance consensus is for it to be heading WNW by now. I wonder if we will see some west shifts with the models to account for the more west movement?

I was thinking the along the same lines. Models had Danny north of the islands and he went south. Could they be underestimating the ridge strength?