Global model runs discussion

[hurricanetrack]

I bet not many people, with the exception of the seasonal naysayers no matter what the season is forecast to be, thought that September would turn out like this. I am amazed at the lack of anything strong, whether or not it will affect land. I wonder if Katia will be the only hurricane to exist in September this year? I guess it's possible though seemingly not likely considering climatology. We're a little over two weeks from finding out and then the sand really starts to move through the hourglass.

[cycloneye]

If there is one factor to blame for the lack of activity is the MJO. It looks like it will turn favorable by the end of the month and going thru the first two weeks of October.

[Ixolib]

......and then the sand really starts to move through the hourglass.

Yeah, it seems like there's surely a spell on the tropics this September...

[psyclone]

I bet not many people, with the exception of the seasonal naysayers no matter what the season is forecast to be, thought that September would turn out like this. I am amazed at the lack of anything strong, whether or not it will affect land. I wonder if Katia will be the only hurricane to exist in September this year? I guess it's possible though seemingly not likely considering climatology. We're a little over two weeks from finding out and then the sand really starts to move through the hourglass.

I have to keep reminding myself that despite the dearth of activity out there now, the highest risk time of year for my geographic region is just now getting underway with climo showing the overwhelming majority of hurricane landfalls around here take place from mid september through october. it is difficult to imagine the western caribbean not hurling one or two whoppers over the next few weeks, especially if cycloneye's mjo graphic comes to fruition. after late october is mostly over so one way or another we're getting a verdict in the next 6 weeks or so.

[BigA]

I'm not sure how easily the MJO can be forecasted, given the developing La Nina. I have heard that ENSO events can really mess around with the MJO's propagation.

That said, I still expect at least one, possibly more big storms out of the western Caribbean before the season ends. It happens in almost every La Nina year.

[Macrocane]

The MJO forecasts have been really really bad this year, the MJO signal has been pretty weak and it never has strengthened, I think that (with or without MJO) we could see a few more hurricanes and possibly several weak TS.

[rainstorm]

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
ACE index/storm this year at 5..12th LOWEST average in past 60 yrs!

nothing too impressive on any model for sept so far.

[psyclone]

BigJoeBastardi Joe Bastardi
ACE index/storm this year at 5..12th LOWEST average in past 60 yrs!

nothing too impressive on any model for sept so far.

it's been a big drag for storm tracking weather geeks like myself. that said i believe long term models at least partially exist to make fortune tellers look good. most of the projections are a joke (think irene to texas and countless other examples) so i wouldn't bet the ranch on nothing happening the rest of sept. things can change quickly, especially in the heart of hurricane season. having said that, at this point i'm kinda relieved that we're on the downslope...either something happens relatively soon (6 weeks or so) or we're done and we can relax until next year.

[WeatherEmperor]

00Z Nogaps @ 180hrs:



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00Z GFS @ 180hrs:



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The 00Z GFS eventually hits Tampa at 348hrs:



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[tampastorm]

Funny this is shown. Every year, this time a yr a storm or 3 is showing a Tampa hit. And as we know never pans out, I just find this interesting.

[cycloneye]

GFS continues with it's flip-flop for the Western Caribbean.

06z GFS loop

[rainstorm]

I said a few weeks ago i think the season ends early. pattern just isnt changing.

[dwsqos2]

Of the four analogs Gray and Klotzbach gave, three had healthy lulls in TC genesis during the month of September.

1952:

Baker formed on August 31; Charlie did not form until September 22.

1966:

Greta formed on September 1; Hallie did not form until September 20.

2008:

Josephine formed on September 2; Kyle did not form until September 23.

Even 2005, another Klotzbach and Gray analog, had an eleven day lull between the genesis of Ophelia and Philippe.

This really should have been expected.

[gatorcane]

I said a few weeks ago i think the season ends early. pattern just isnt changing.

Hmmm, not so sure about that. We are certainly in a very quite period, but with La Nina reemerging -- I think it starts to get going again in about a week or so, definitely towards the end of September and I think October will be active.

I do think we are going to see a couple of big ones crank out in the Western Caribbean before this season is done. Question is does the East Coast trough scoop them up or do they move into Central America.

[psyclone]

Of the four analogs Gray and Klotzbach gave, three had healthy lulls in TC genesis during the month of September.

1952:

Baker formed on August 31; Charlie did not form until September 22.

1966:

Greta formed on September 1; Hallie did not form until September 20.

2008:

Josephine formed on September 2; Kyle did not form until September 23.

Even 2005, another Klotzbach and Gray analog, had an eleven day lull between the genesis of Ophelia and Philippe.

This really should have been expected.

really good info. thanks for posting. considering we're just a few days past climo peak, it is definitely too soon to throw in the towel yet. i think we'll squeeze out a few more storms and possibly one or two majors.

[cycloneye]

Dr Jeff Masters talks briefly about the present lull.

Even the busiest of hurricane seasons have lulls, and we're hitting one this week during what is traditionally the busiest week of hurricane season. The models are backing off this morning on the development of a tropical depression or strong tropical disturbance late this week off the coast of Africa. The NOGAPS model continues to predict the Western Caribbean could see the development of a tropical depression 6 -7 days from now, but the other models are showing little support for this idea.

[LarryWx]

Folks,
Prior to any possible W Caribbean excitement, I still feel that the area off of the SE coast should be closely monitored for potential tropical development next week. Today's 0z Euro is rather intriguing in that it both the NE US high hanging around longer just offshore, more 500 mb high pressure near and just offshore the mid- Atlantic, and even weak sfc low pressure forming off the SE US coast by the middle of next week. Let's see what today's 12z models do, especially the Euro.

I'm currently going with about a 50% chance for a named storm to form in that general area next week.

[bohaiboy]

And WOW, there is even a touch of green over Texas. What's with that?

GFS continues with it's flip-flop for the Western Caribbean.

06z GFS loop

[Stormcenter]

The cold fronts are coming early this season and will be stronger so the waters will cool some sooner then usual so whatever forms will have obstacles to deal with. JMHO

I said a few weeks ago i think the season ends early. pattern just isnt changing.

Hmmm, not so sure about that. We are certainly in a very quite period, but with La Nina reemerging -- I think it starts to get going again in about a week or so, definitely towards the end of September and I think October will be active.

I do think we are going to see a couple of big ones crank out in the Western Caribbean before this season is done. Question is does the East Coast trough scoop them up or do they move into Central America.

[underthwx]

Crown Weather excerpt:


Possible Development In The Western Caribbean & The Southwest North Atlantic Next Week:
As has been mentioned several times over the past few days, the overall pattern from this weekend into next week of a large high pressure system pushing eastward across New England will result in us watching to the south of that high pressure system for tropical development. The model guidance has been on and off regarding the idea of tropical development in the western Caribbean next week. Given that the overall setup in the atmosphere is fairly classic for tropical development, I think we will see the air start to converge in the western Caribbean starting later this weekend and especially next week and tropical cyclone development is very possible in the western Caribbean sometime next week.

The global model guidance have been on and off regarding this type of development and are having a tough time grasping the overall pattern setup. The latest GFS model guidance is forecasting low pressure to develop in the western Caribbean right around Monday or Tuesday of next week and forecasts this system to slowly develop as it tracks slowly northward from the western Caribbean into the southern Gulf of Mexico by about September 26. The European model is not very keen on the idea of tropical development next week and actually forecasts development in the eastern Pacific instead in about 9 to 10 days from now.

New Orleans NWS F.D.:

THE ECMWF DOES FORECAST THE
EVOLUTION OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS NEXT
WEEK...BUT IT BASICALLY PARKS IT THERE THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF
THE WEEK. SO, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS. HOWEVER...IN EITHER CASE A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA NEXT WEEK AS WAS ONCE ADVERTISED.

So IF a cyclone develops in the Caribbean(Lets hope it won't)...if the trough doesn't dig down south as much as previously thought...where does the potential system track..how will the new model runs respond I wonder???...




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