ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Steve]

8.8" in an hour most likely isn't a world record, but that's crazy. Buckets x 3 or where you could extend your arm and not see your hand. Fortunately the system is moving somewhat quickly across the island. Thoughts out to everybody down there in the islands.

[CourierPR]

I have the NRL satellite loop going. Will it update automatically or do I need to refresh?

[ozonepete]

I have the NRL satellite loop going. Will it update automatically or do I need to refresh?

Haven't used it since last year but I always had to refresh....

[Hurricaneman]

With the animated loops, seems like she is putting out a gust front on the W/SW side. Almost like an MCS/Derecho over land as it bows out and weakens the convection behind it. You can see wind gusts in the range of 50-70mph+ range with those events near the gust fronts.

Probably caused by the convection around 16N earlier in the day and isn't connected with the current convection

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[psyclone]

One thing is certain...it remains a vigorous ball of nasty weather.

[Bocadude85]

Look at the shap of the deep reds over the gulf of gonave on the AVN loop. Very similar shape to that mw pass. I'm sure it's just the convection weakening but still interesting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif

[Hurricaneman]

Look at the shap of the deep reds on the AVN loop. Very similar shape to that mw pass. I'm sure it's just the convection weakening but still interesting.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/05L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif

I put it at 19.2N 72W or just in the Windward passage

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ericinmia]

[ericinmia]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/nexsat.cgi

[rolltide]

Still seems to be moving west or slightly north of west. Will be interesting when it comes into view of the cuban radars. Going to be a tough go if it goes over the middle half of eastern Cuba though.


[i]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/i]

[tropicwatch]

The wind shear map has really changed tonight compare to earlier today. The thing that caught my eye, was the High in the Atlantic.

[emeraldislenc]

That high in the Atlantic could have helped explode the storm had it moved north of PR like the models was indicating last night we have had a bad storm
Moving up the east coast!

[rolltide]

Still seems to be moving west or slightly north of west. Will be interesting when it comes into view of the cuban radars. Going to be a tough go if it goes over the middle half of eastern Cuba though.


[i]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/i]

However. if Erika skirts the south coast of Cuba (which she seems inclined to do per PR and DR) it may be a different ball game.


[i]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/i]

[floridasun78]

look like center coming out of haiti soon plane going fly into it that be over water

[ericinmia]

Look what shear has done to Erika now:


She didn't want to be a hurricane, so she became a BOX!

I don't think this bodes well for her health..... based on past experience with other storms.

[rolltide]

Eastern Cuba rader showing a possible rotation just south of Les Cayes Haiti. Wish Cuba radar was a little better. Should be able to tell in a few hours.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[bamajammer4eva]

Based on current satellite trends I am inclined to believe even this is incorrect but here is the NHC's cone of uncertainty westward slide dance over the past 48 hours every 12 hours ending at the 10pm advisory tonight. No discredit intended to the pros but it Shows that even with the knowledge and tools today, storms can be troublesome to predict!

[rolltide]

Based on current satellite trends I am inclined to believe even this is incorrect but here is the NHC's cone of uncertainty westward slide dance over the past 48 hours every 12 hours ending at the 10pm advisory tonight. No discredit intended to the pros but it Shows that even with the knowledge and tools today, storms can be troublesome to predict!

Keep in mind that the NHC will hardly ever shift the track dramatically one way or the other. They normally step it a little each update. The last thing they want to do is the "wind shield wiper" thing.

[Alyono]

Based on current satellite trends I am inclined to believe even this is incorrect but here is the NHC's cone of uncertainty westward slide dance over the past 48 hours every 12 hours ending at the 10pm advisory tonight. No discredit intended to the pros but it Shows that even with the knowledge and tools today, storms can be troublesome to predict!

It is NOT a cone of uncertainty. A cone of uncertainty would take into account the atmospheric flow dependent uncertainty. It is a historical error cone, nothing more

[AdamFirst]

Dvorak rated Erika a 3.5 at 53 knots? Is this real life?