ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[hiflyer]

Possible low level circulation forming at 21.5N 74.5 W or just N of the eastern most Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Yup...but came off Haiti under the cloud cover which now appears has been mostly stripped off to the ene....sorta nekked out there right now.

[xironman]

This has to be one of the worst jobs done by the Nhc in a
Long time in predicting the projected path not being critical just being honest they have tried but off big time !

This is a nino high shear environment, so intensity is really hard to predict. And if you can't predict intensity it is hard to guess the correct level for steering currents. The have mentioned the low confidence in their discussions.

[northjaxpro]

Thanks for posting that imagery above xironman. I am confident looking at that imagery and you can clearly see a low level swirl moving due north of west just off the easternmost coast of Cuba. There is convection beginning to pop in that area as well. I think Erika has survived her trek over Hispaniola. Recon will be in there in a short while and I am confident they will verify this area as the main LLC.

[emeraldislenc]

That is what was surprising the edge if the ridge they just never knew where it was they have been talking about the edge of the ridge for a long time that is what I find amazing

[jlauderdal]

This has to be one of the worst jobs done by the Nhc in a
Long time in predicting the projected path not being critical just being honest they have tried but off big time !

weak disorganized systems are really tough to predict, seen it many times...that being said its very surprising to see how off they have been on the ridging in place..they keep talking about a turn that until maybe now hasnt materialized

[Nimbus]

This has to be one of the worst jobs done by the Nhc in a
Long time in predicting the projected path not being critical just being honest they have tried but off big time !

This is a nino high shear environment, so intensity is really hard to predict. And if you can't predict intensity it is hard to guess the correct level for steering currents. The have mentioned the low confidence in their discussions.

There are at least 2 vortices the northern vortice appears headed over eastern Cuba and the southern vortice *should* become dominant since it will have the convective lift.

[jinftl]

Erika has done a decent job at avoiding land so far....she may just miss southeast cuba at this rate and hit 20N closer to 78W to 80W

[jlauderdal]

This has to be one of the worst jobs done by the Nhc in a
Long time in predicting the projected path not being critical just being honest they have tried but off big time !

This is a nino high shear environment, so intensity is really hard to predict. And if you can't predict intensity it is hard to guess the correct level for steering currents. The have mentioned the low confidence in their discussions.

yes its el nino...they know the current intensity and they knew the intensity was going to be weak in the carib...the problem is there has been a real lack of understanding of the flow and that is shocking, they are running planes out their constantly doing drops...if the computers cant handle the data correctly then go old school...maybe they have too many resources at their disposable..sometimes low tech is better than high tech

these weak systems are tough but the error in direction is really disconcerting

i have posted many times how great it is to be close to or at landfall on a 5 day nhc forecast and that holds true more than ever after erika..at 5 days it was a hurricane landfalling around boca..10 miles up the road from me..where are we at today

[hiflyer]

from 5am NHC discussion
"There is a significant chance that no
watches or warnings for Florida will be required."

Guess they can start taking the patio furniture out of the pool?

[xironman]

I just want Erika to have twins! Never seen that before. Who gets what name?

[wzrgirl1]

Thanks for posting that imagery above xironman. I am confident looking at that imagery and you can clearly see a low level swirl moving due north of west just off the easternmost coast of Cuba. There is convection beginning to pop in that area as well. I think Erika has survived her trek over Hispaniola. Recon will be in there in a short while and I am confident they will verify this area as the main LLC.

What will this mean in terms of the overall track? Will it be shifted more to the east if convection builds over this LLC?

[emeraldislenc]

I agree maybe common sense old school
Would have worked better i am not being critical but mistakes were made and I am worried about the next time and how it might affect the next one being taken seriously.

[Nimbus]

Thanks for posting that imagery above xironman. I am confident looking at that imagery and you can clearly see a low level swirl moving due north of west just off the easternmost coast of Cuba. There is convection beginning to pop in that area as well. I think Erika has survived her trek over Hispaniola. Recon will be in there in a short while and I am confident they will verify this area as the main LLC.

What will this mean in terms of the overall track? Will it be shifted more to the east if convection builds over this LLC?

Overnight the trough that extended into the gulf cut off into an ULL centered over NOLA.
Models handle Troughs differently than ULL's the stronger upper level high circulation tends to move ULLs like a pin ball..

[jinftl]

NHC moved south florida out of the cone before even a ts watch had been issued - I think that was a smart move. Not like folks were boarding up or schools had been closed yet. Worst case, folks got some water and batteries which they probably didn't get in June since the media hyped the slow season ahead.

[xironman]

I does kind of look like the north of Cuba vort is gaining convection while dyeing in the south. An all water track could make things a bit more interesting.

[NDG]

There's not much left of Erika this morning and now her vorticity is getting under a weak upper level low, not the UL environment needed for a tropical disturbance to strengthen.
Nothing but more heavy rains for FL over the next few days.
The blazing El Niño wine again. Somebody tell 99L not to come anywhere close to the Caribbean lol.

[Frank2]

What`s left is encountering the ULL over eastern Cuba...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

P.S. Local media learned a hard lesson - never trust a computer model (no wonder HitchBOT ended up in the garbage can)...

[jlauderdal]

CraigSetzer3 mins
Also, interesting swirl near Great Inagua. It's probably nothing... http://t.co/RHymJRn1kz

cbs local miami met

[Airboy]

Any chance/risk that what is left of it continues the west-ward trend of the track and it will end up going between Yucatan and Cuba in to the gulf?

[jlauderdal]

What`s left is encountering the ULL over eastern Cuba...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

P.S. Local media learned a hard lesson - never trust a computer model...

the news directors really need to get with the weather dept and get some guidance on how to report these systems..this special erika coverage is beyond ridiculous, i feel bad for the anchors and reporters that have to be on board