ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[RL3AO]

(Btw, could that be why Haiyan had such ridiculously cold cloud tops?)

Yep. Had tropopause temps in the Central Philippines of around -85C during Haiyan.

http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/soundin ... STNM=98646

[Nate-Gillson]

Hopefully this thing doesn't make a beeline for Bermuda or else it's going to be another Fabian for them (or worse).

[txwatcher91]

Pretty incredible this is strengthening like this under 25-30kts of shear. Shear is decreasing near Bermuda too, if they get on the SE side it could be bad.

[cycloneye]

Any news from the Bahamas or about the lost ship?

[Nate-Gillson]

Pretty incredible this is strengthening like this under 25-30kts of shear. Shear is decreasing near Bermuda too, if they get on the SE side it could be bad.

Have there been storms that intensified under strong shear (aka using the shear to their advantage?)

[CourierPR]

Pretty incredible this is strengthening like this under 25-30kts of shear. Shear is decreasing near Bermuda too, if they get on the SE side it could be bad.

Have there been storms that intensified under strong shear (aka using the shear to their advantage?)

I believe Wilma did that in 2005 before crossing the Florida peninsula.

[Slughitter3]

Any news from the Bahamas or about the lost ship?

The only info that I have is that the search was restarted this morning at sunrise. Several coast guard C-130s, a helo, and several boats. There's been no sign of the vessel. The last known location was inside the southeast eye wall Thursday afternoon while I believe J was going through RI. It's not looking good. Company executives have met with all the families of the crew on board.

[CrazyC83]

Pretty incredible this is strengthening like this under 25-30kts of shear. Shear is decreasing near Bermuda too, if they get on the SE side it could be bad.

Have there been storms that intensified under strong shear (aka using the shear to their advantage?)

I believe Wilma did that in 2005 before crossing the Florida peninsula.

Wilma went from 90 kt to 110 kt despite a front nearby and something like 50 knots of shear after leaving Florida as well...

[Craters]

Winds are 180 mph just 700 ft above the surface. This is why you never want to be in a high-rise building during a landfalling hurricane.

Or even near one. A lot of the damage caused by Alicia in 1983 in downtown Houston was from gravel* being blown off the roofs of some tall buildings and through the windows of others like machine-gun fire. And that plate glass isn't very thin. Yowie.

*I think it's used on roofs for UV protection (?).

[wxman57]

Pretty incredible this is strengthening like this under 25-30kts of shear. Shear is decreasing near Bermuda too, if they get on the SE side it could be bad.

It's clearly not experiencing high shear now. Shear looks relatively light over Joaquin now. Look at the satellite loop, not the shear maps.

[Nate-Gillson]

Is it just me or is Joaquin shrinking in size?

[Macrocane]

Wow almost cat 5 and in an El Niño season. Joaquin has been a very very interesting systema to track.

[T'Bonz]

Amazing storm. Lucky for the East Coast that it's staying offshore.

[CrazyC83]

One other thing for sure: this is likely to be racking up ACE - more ACE than the previous 9 storms combined?

[Sanibel]

Pinhole eye.


Kudos to those who were scientifically watching the data last night and calling the intensification.

[crimi481]

Like a large pressure cleaning machine- spraying clouds and energy into S.E states.
Truly a remarkable Cane - typifies modern era of climate changes

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

I am not a Pro

[CrazyC83]

http://northeastweatherwx.com/index.php ... ast-coast/

This was my blog from yesterday (today it appears the East Coast will miss it completely, so Scenario 5 looks to have won out). But in the intensity forecast:

It is likely that there will be fluctuations in the intensity of Joaquin over the next 12 to 24 hours as the eyewall replacement cycle continues, but Joaquin should remain at least a Category 3 hurricane over that time. Once completed, a small window of opportunity for re-strengthening should exist on Saturday as Joaquin moves away from the Bahamas and shear remains low.

(Note that I anticipated it to weaken a bit more, to 100 or 105 kt, which did not happen - at least not operationally.)

[RL3AO]

One other thing for sure: this is likely to be racking up ACE - more ACE than the previous 9 storms combined?

Current NHC forecast would be about 14 additional ACE units which would be pretty close.

[Macrocane]

We still don't know if the AMO is already changing but the North Atlantic is actually pretty warm and Joaquin found the right spot at the right time even with El Niño.

[Hammy]

Anyone think this can keep strengthening long enough for the next plane to arrive?