EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical

#301 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun May 31, 2015 4:19 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 203000 UTC
Lat : 15:14:53 N Lon : 118:35:42 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 946.3mb/117.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +6.6C Cloud Region Temp : -67.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.0 degrees

#302 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sun May 31, 2015 4:39 pm

6.5, Evan?

#303 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun May 31, 2015 4:40 pm

Kingarabian wrote:

6.5, Evan?

Almost. If the eye can warm a hair more, possibly. Historic day here.

#304 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun May 31, 2015 4:47 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 15:15:00 N Lon : 118:38:40 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 946.3mb/117.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +5.3C Cloud Region Temp : -68.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 26.0 degrees

#305 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun May 31, 2015 5:19 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 31 MAY 2015 Time : 213000 UTC
Lat : 15:15:09 N Lon : 118:47:50 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 944.1mb/119.8kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +6.6C Cloud Region Temp : -68.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 102km
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 25.8 degrees

WeatherGuesser · #306 Postby **WeatherGuesser** » Sun May 31, 2015 5:20 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE

Some of these pages those are about half the posts on a page, some maybe more.

At least it makes it easy to get though the page faster, rapidly scrolling by all those.

xtyphooncyclonex · #307 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Sun May 31, 2015 5:31 pm

Amazing Andres, Good Morning from our place!! (6:30 AM)

I think this should be a category 4 next update

#308 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sun May 31, 2015 5:37 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE

Some of these pages those are about half the posts on a page, some maybe more.

At least it makes it easy to get though the page faster, rapidly scrolling by all those.

Yes, we're posting observations and updates on an on-going storm.

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #309 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Sun May 31, 2015 5:53 pm

Andres is teetering on the Category 4 threshold, but I'd like to see -70C convection become more sustained before an upgrade.

#310 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sun May 31, 2015 6:10 pm

Latest MW imagery from AMSR and GMI:

#311 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun May 31, 2015 7:05 pm

Looks good enough now for me to think this is at Cat 4.

xtyphooncyclonex · #312 Postby **xtyphooncyclonex** » Sun May 31, 2015 7:05 pm

Andres

#313 Postby **Ntxw** » Sun May 31, 2015 7:12 pm

See hyping up always works here :lol:

Very impressed

#314 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun May 31, 2015 7:26 pm

TXPZ26 KNES 010022
TCSENP

A. 01E (ANDRES)

B. 01/0000Z

C. 15.3N

D. 119.0W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...EYE BETTER DEFINED AND WARMER BUT ONLY OFF WHITE EMBEDDED
IN BLACK WITH A RING OF WHITE FOR A DT=6.0. MET ON SLOW CURVE IS 6.0
AND PAT=6.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...SWANSON

#315 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun May 31, 2015 7:27 pm

01/0000 UTC 15.3N 119.0W T6.0/6.0 ANDRES -- East Pacific

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #316 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Sun May 31, 2015 7:40 pm

120kt!

EP, 01, 2015060100, , BEST, 0, 153N, 1190W, 120, 943, HU, 34, NEQ, 140, 90, 80, 100, 1007, 250, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ANDRES, D,

#317 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun May 31, 2015 7:45 pm

EPAC continues to work its magic.

#318 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun May 31, 2015 7:58 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JUN 2015 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 15:16:43 N Lon : 119:02:33 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.2 / 944.1mb/119.8kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +7.0C Cloud Region Temp : -70.1C

Scene Type : EYE

#319 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sun May 31, 2015 7:59 pm

I knew it!

#320 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sun May 31, 2015 8:20 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 JUN 2015 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 15:17:12 N Lon : 118:59:17 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 941.0mb/122.2kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.6 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : +6.4C Cloud Region Temp : -70.8C

EPAC: ANDRES - Post-Tropical

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