ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

Wx_Warrior · #301 Postby **Wx_Warrior** » Mon Jun 15, 2015 1:49 pm

Are we comparing this to Ike now? 8-)

#302 Postby **BigA** » Mon Jun 15, 2015 1:54 pm

tolakram wrote:New burst of convection near what may be the center.

Some studies have indicated that "hot tower" bursts near the developing center of a disturbance can be critical in concentrating the vorticity into a closed low. Not sure if the case here, and there is no way to know for sure, but something to watch.

#303 Postby **Tireman4** » Mon Jun 15, 2015 1:54 pm

Wx_Warrior wrote:Are we comparing this to Ike now?

ha ha ha...no....just saying the models cannot all be trusted. Remember when the GFS was downright laughable. Everyone thought it was garbage and the Euro was king. Then another year, it was reversed. I am just saying, let us get a defined center. Let us get all the information ingested into the models, then we start to make trends and strategies.

stormlover2013 · #304 Postby **stormlover2013** » Mon Jun 15, 2015 1:57 pm

Still no true center for models to intialize

EasyTiger · #305 Postby **EasyTiger** » Mon Jun 15, 2015 1:57 pm

Wouldn't this storm essentially have to go due west at this point for the Euro to verify?

#306 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:01 pm

EasyTiger wrote:Wouldn't this storm essentially have to go due west at this point for the Euro to verify?

If it went due west and the center is actually where it appears to be on satellite at the moment, it would hit Brownsville.

#307 Postby **NDG** » Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:03 pm

Not sure if anyone mentioned that at 18z Buoy 42002 which is located at 26.1N & 93.7W reported winds from the NW at 13.6 knots and a pressure of 1007.8 mb. At 18z the best track position of 91L was placed at 25.5N & 93W which does not make sense with the buoy north west of this position reporting NW winds.

EasyTiger · #308 Postby **EasyTiger** » Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:03 pm

Portastorm wrote:
EasyTiger wrote:Wouldn't this storm essentially have to go due west at this point for the Euro to verify?

If it went due west and the center is actually where it appears to be on satellite at the moment, it would hit Brownsville.

Ok. Sounds like we're seeing the same thing.

#309 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:04 pm

Cirrus clouds appear to be moving north to the west of the disturbance and south on the east side. As far as the last few years go this looks to be in a pretty darn good (and rare) set of conditions to develop.

Live WV loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-94&info=wv&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=92&type=Animation&palette=wv2.pal&mapcolor=gray&numframes=20

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#310 Postby **Nederlander** » Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:05 pm

EasyTiger wrote:Wouldn't this storm essentially have to go due west at this point for the Euro to verify?

WNW. Based on current movement looks more like Port Lavaca to me.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

tropicwatch · #311 Postby **tropicwatch** » Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:05 pm

Looks like high pressure building above 91L. This afternoons recon could be interesting.

#312 Postby **wxman57** » Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:09 pm

I'm stuck at Chicago O'Hare waiting for my return flight to Houston. Delayed 2 hrs so far, maybe more delays.

Meanwhile, Bill appears to have formed...

TeamPlayersBlue · #313 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:10 pm

Are they trying to be 100% politically correct on this? So strange. I could throw out 3 or 4 storms that hit the texas coast that was way worse than this. Im seeing this burst of convection, maybe this will help center the circulation.

#314 Postby **Tireman4** » Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:11 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm stuck at Chicago O'Hare waiting for my return flight to Houston. Delayed 2 hrs so far, maybe more delays.

Meanwhile, Bill appears to have formed...

I thought you had a private jet? What the heck? Hurry and get back here. We need you here and on the KHOU Weatherboard. I mentioned you and the famous "Ike" lines you had made about the models.....

#315 Postby **Portastorm** » Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:12 pm

wxman57 wrote:I'm stuck at Chicago O'Hare waiting for my return flight to Houston. Delayed 2 hrs so far, maybe more delays.

Meanwhile, Bill appears to have formed...

Once you eventually get airborne, see if you can talk the pilots into a ride into the Gulf and do some obs for us?! :wink:

Safe travels home, sir.

#316 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:13 pm

Looks to be organizing to me looking at the latest loop plus seems to be growing in size (anticyclone is building right over top of it allowing the clouds to fan out more). Also looks to be gaining some latitude.

TeamPlayersBlue · #317 Postby **TeamPlayersBlue** » Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:13 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm stuck at Chicago O'Hare waiting for my return flight to Houston. Delayed 2 hrs so far, maybe more delays.

Meanwhile, Bill appears to have formed...

I thought you had a private jet? What the heck? Hurry and get back here. We need you here and on the KHOU Weatherboard. I mentioned you and the famous "Ike" lines you had made about the models.....

I need to go visit that board as well!

Im ready for the recon at 4pm, gets there around 530. It could open up at 50 MPH. Strange situation

Edit: Check out the burst in the last few frames http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

#318 Postby **Tireman4** » Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:14 pm

Portastorm wrote:
wxman57 wrote:I'm stuck at Chicago O'Hare waiting for my return flight to Houston. Delayed 2 hrs so far, maybe more delays.

Meanwhile, Bill appears to have formed...

Once you eventually get airborne, see if you can talk the pilots into a ride into the Gulf and do some obs for us?!

Safe travels home, sir.

Oh yeah, they will "love" that. Pilots are cowboys at heart...

galvestontx · #319 Postby **galvestontx** » Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:14 pm

Nederlander wrote:
EasyTiger wrote:Wouldn't this storm essentially have to go due west at this point for the Euro to verify?

WNW. Based on current movement looks more like Port Lavaca to me.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I was thinking Freeport to East Matty

#320 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Mon Jun 15, 2015 2:17 pm

Where is the center?

ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

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