EPAC: GUILLERMO - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

[img] * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* GUILLERMO EP092015 08/01/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 89 87 83 80 72 67 62 55 47 40 35
V (KT) LAND 90 90 89 87 83 80 72 67 62 55 47 40 35
V (KT) LGE mod 90 88 85 80 76 70 66 62 60 56 52 48 45
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 7 6 10 9 9 10 10 10 18 27 31 37
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 13 11 7 7 10 7 1 4 2 2 1 0
SHEAR DIR 298 296 318 315 328 339 298 305 273 267 268 261 260
SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2
POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 147 146 143 139 137 136 134 133 134 134 135
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -53.3
TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 7 7
700-500 MB RH 64 67 68 67 67 67 67 64 62 59 57 55 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 23 23 22 21 20 22 20 20 19 19 18 17 16
850 MB ENV VOR -2 -3 8 9 1 21 29 39 41 47 37 29 20
200 MB DIV 29 40 31 19 15 26 12 26 17 20 18 13 24
700-850 TADV 9 9 7 7 7 8 10 5 6 8 4 7 2
LAND (KM) 1874 1732 1590 1468 1347 1148 999 841 660 478 304 156 75
LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.5 18.4 19.3 20.0 20.6
LONG(DEG W) 138.4 139.7 141.0 142.1 143.2 144.9 146.1 147.4 148.9 150.4 151.9 153.4 154.9
STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7
HEAT CONTENT 18 13 14 16 17 14 10 9 16 16 17 20 14[/img]

[NDG]

Not that bad looking.
BTW, I am surprised that disturbance ahead of Guillermo is not an invest this morning.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015
800 AM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015

The cloud pattern is not as impressive as it was yesterday when
there was a hint of an eye on satellite imagery. However, Dvorak
T-numbers from all agencies still support an initial intensity of 90
kt. It appears that Guillermo has already peaked in intensity, and
the hurricane is heading toward an environment no longer favorable
for strengthening. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for a
steady state during the next 12 hours or so, and a gradual weakening
thereafter. By the time Guillermo approaches the Hawaiian
Islands, the upper-level winds are forecast to be even more
unfavorable, and by then, Guillermo is expected to have weakened to
a tropical storm. The NHC forecast is very close to the intensity
consensus model ICON.

The steering currents have begun to weaken, and Guillermo is slowing
down. The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or
280 degrees at 12 kt. The hurricane is already located on the
southwestern edge of the subtropical ridge, and there is a large
weakness of the ridge to its northwest. This pattern should force
the cyclone to slow down even further and turn more to the
west-northwest. The GFS insists on a more northwesterly component
bringing the center of Guillermo north of the Hawaiian Islands. The
ECMWF, on the other hand, brings the cyclone south or near the
Islands. The NHC forecast is very similar to the previous one,
and is basically on top of the consensus of the ECMWF and the GFS
models.

Due to uncertainties in longer-range track predictions, it is
important for users not to focus on the exact track forecasts at 96
and 120 hours. Given the large spread of the models beyond 72
hours in this case, the forecast uncertainty is particularly high at
those time periods.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 13.5N 139.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 13.9N 141.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 14.5N 143.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 15.3N 144.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 16.2N 146.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 17.5N 148.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 19.0N 151.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 20.7N 155.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[TheStormExpert]

Not that bad looking.
BTW, I am surprised that disturbance ahead of Guillermo is not an invest this morning.

That was former TD-8E, some of the models were showing it regenerating down the road.

[Yellow Evan]

looks like we have a Geneieve situation all of again.

[Kingarabian]

Structure looks better. CDO is better defined. This is probably its last chance.

[Kingarabian]

12z GFS and ECMWF have identical Hawaii landfalls.

[Kingarabian]

Eye appearing in the last couple of frames.

[Yellow Evan]

It's consolidation appears to be successful. I've seen it happen where the eye clears and the storm resumes intensifying.

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                    * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  GUILLERMO   EP092015  08/01/15  18 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    90    89    86    82    79    70    61    53    47    40    32    27    22
V (KT) LAND       90    89    86    82    79    70    61    53    47    40    32    27    22
V (KT) LGE mod    90    87    83    78    73    64    56    51    46    43    41    39    36
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)        11    10    14    16    11    17    17    17    17    15    25    26    35
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    14    13     8     5     8     4     1     0    -2     0     1     4     0
SHEAR DIR        295   294   304   312   314   304   298   286   285   256   263   253   257
SST (C)         28.3  28.2  28.1  28.0  27.8  27.4  27.2  27.1  27.0  27.0  27.1  27.1  27.1
POT. INT. (KT)   148   147   146   144   142   137   135   134   133   133   135   135   134
200 MB T (C)   -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.4 -52.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C)       8     8     8     8     7     7     7     7     7     7     6     7     7
700-500 MB RH     67    69    68    69    71    70    70    68    67    64    62    59    55
MODEL VTX (KT)    23    21    20    20    20    19    19    17    16    14    13    12    11
850 MB ENV VOR    -4    -2     0    -2     4    17    21    31    30    39    27    25    -3
200 MB DIV        45    34     5    12    27    -1    10     9    10    33    37    47     5
700-850 TADV      17    13    11     7     6     4     3     1     2     2     0     4    -1
LAND (KM)       1752  1632  1512  1403  1294  1106   960   807   649   472   293   144    53
LAT (DEG N)     13.7  14.0  14.2  14.6  14.9  15.8  16.7  17.3  17.8  18.6  19.6  20.4  21.1
LONG(DEG W)    139.5 140.6 141.7 142.7 143.6 145.1 146.2 147.5 148.9 150.4 152.0 153.8 155.6
STM SPEED (KT)    12    11    11    10     9     8     7     7     8     8     9     9     9
HEAT CONTENT      13    13    16    17    17    11     8     9    15    14    17    18    15

Has 24 hours left.

[Kingarabian]

HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092015
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 01 2015


The cloud pattern has begun to deteriorate, but it is organized
enough to keep the same Dvorak T-numbers with an initial intensity
of 90 kt. Guillermo is heading toward a shear environment, and on
this basis, the NHC forecast calls for a gradual weakening. By the
time Guillermo approaches the Hawaiian Islands, the upper-level
winds are forecast to be even more unfavorable, and by then,
Guillermo is expected to have weakened to a tropical storm. The NHC
forecast continues to be very close to the intensity consensus model
ICON.

Guillermo is moving toward the west-northwest or 285 degrees at 12
kt. The hurricane is already located on the southwestern edge of
the subtropical ridge, and there is a large weakness in the ridge to
its northwest. This pattern should force the cyclone to slow down
even further and turn more to the west-northwest or northwest. The
most reliable track models are now in better agreement, and the
multi-model consensus brings Guillermo just north or very near
the Hawaiian Islands. The NHC forecast follows the consensus and is
very similar to the previous one.

Due to uncertainties in longer-range track predictions, it is
important for users not to focus on the exact track forecasts at 96
and 120 hours. Given the large spread of the models beyond 72
hours in this case, the forecast uncertainty is particularly high at
those time periods.

Since Guillermo is now moving into the Central Pacific, future
information will be provided by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center at Honolulu, Hawaii.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 13.8N 140.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 14.3N 141.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 15.1N 143.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 15.9N 145.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 16.7N 146.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 18.2N 149.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 19.7N 152.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 21.0N 155.5W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Kingarabian]

Granted it'll be on Recon life support, either the SHIPS shear output is wrong or all the global models are wrong when it gets closer to the Hawaiian island; don't see how it'll stay a tropical storm with 17-35kts of shear over it for 2+ days and cool waters + dry air.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Alyono]

cool water isn't an issue this time. It stays over 27C. Much warmer than Iselle had.

This is pure shear

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS same as the 12Z run. TS Hawaii landfall.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like a minimal hurricane at this point. Mid level shear has no chill.

[Kingarabian]

TXPN23 KNES 012355
TCSCNP

A. 09E (GUILLERMO)

B. 01/2330Z

C. 13.7N

D. 140.5W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.5/5.0/W0.5/12HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWED AN INTERMITTENT CLOUD-FILLED
EYE. MHS DATA FROM METOP-A AT 1914Z SHOWED A PARTIAL EYEWALL IN THE
EASTERN HEMISPHERE BUT NONE TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. AT 2330Z, CENTER
IS ESTIMATED TO BE EMBEDDED IN LG, WHICH RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.5. MET
AND PT ARE ALSO 4.5. FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN PRECISE
LOCATION OF THE CENTER.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[Kingarabian]

Code: Select all

                     UW - CIMSS                     
              ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE       
                  ADT-Version 8.2.1               
         Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm       

             ----- Current Analysis -----
     Date :  01 AUG 2015    Time :   233000 UTC
      Lat :   14:09:55 N     Lon :  140:32:09 W

     
                CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                4.8 / 971.4mb/ 84.8kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                4.6     4.8     4.8

 Center Temp : -75.1C    Cloud Region Temp : -75.4C

 Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

 Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

 Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC 
 Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC 

 Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
                   Weakening Flag : ON   
           Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF   

 C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
  - Average 34 knot radii :   92km
  - Environmental MSLP    : 1008mb

 Satellite Name :  GOES15
 Satellite Viewing Angle : 17.8 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

Looks 75-80 ish to me.

[Kingarabian]

20kts on CIMSS already set to increase to 40kts.

No idea how this will survive until Thursday and be anything but a remnant low.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Kingarabian]

CPHC keeps it at 90kts lol.