ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3021 Postby Ntxw » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:32 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:Freezing and boiling points of items are expressed as 'exact' because they have been measured with calibrated instruments and verified repeatedly.

Wind speeds are estimates. If they sample and 'declare' a speed in this or any system at 156, it is very likely that speed was somewhere between 150 and 160 and no one will ever be able to state exactly. They have to pick a number for the documents.


Since the NHC rounds things out by 5, a Cat 5 advisory would essentially state 160mph. Not 157mph or 155mph though. That is not an easy feat for any storm and would require very good evidence
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3022 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:33 pm

WPBWeather wrote: responded to ozonepete:
Ok, I will bow to your points. However, if it turns out on reanalysis that it reached 157+ mph, I will call you. :D


Did you see my earlier post today that I think it probably reached cat 5 at some point this morning and it might make it to cat 5 in the reanalysis? I'm guessing you missed that. Anyway, don't worry. I will be waiting for the end of year wrap-up of the season to see, so I will probably call you first. :)
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#3023 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:34 pm

Previous vortex had no eye description. Going back to the last vortex from the last mission which was at 10:51am Saturday morning, the eye was closed and circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles. Now it is over twice the diameter, 48 nautical miles, still circular, and open in the SW.

947mb with 25 knots of surface wind.
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#3024 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:40 pm

URNT15 KNHC 040332
AF303 1411A JOAQUIN HDOB 30 20151004
032330 2713N 06951W 6964 03068 9945 +100 +082 290050 051 036 000 00
032400 2712N 06952W 6970 03066 9937 +108 +076 291053 053 034 001 00
032430 2711N 06953W 6967 03072 9937 +111 +073 293053 054 035 000 00
032500 2710N 06954W 6967 03077 9936 +113 +071 296053 054 035 000 00
032530 2709N 06956W 6971 03069 9933 +119 +060 295055 056 034 002 00
032600 2708N 06957W 6967 03075 9934 +116 +060 298054 055 033 001 00
032630 2706N 06958W 6975 03067 9938 +117 +067 298053 054 034 000 00
032700 2705N 06959W 6962 03088 9944 +113 +063 296051 054 035 000 00
032730 2704N 07001W 6971 03077 9949 +110 +064 292050 051 033 000 00
032800 2703N 07002W 6963 03090 9954 +110 +065 292050 050 033 001 00
032830 2702N 07003W 6969 03083 9956 +110 +068 293049 049 032 000 00
032900 2701N 07005W 6966 03089 9956 +108 +073 291047 047 033 000 00
032930 2700N 07006W 6967 03087 9958 +108 +071 289046 047 029 001 00
033000 2659N 07007W 6965 03091 9957 +109 +070 286045 045 029 002 00
033030 2657N 07008W 6966 03090 9960 +109 +069 284043 045 031 001 00
033100 2656N 07010W 6967 03091 9958 +112 +068 285041 042 029 001 03
033130 2655N 07011W 6970 03092 9959 +113 +069 285041 042 028 000 00
033200 2654N 07012W 6968 03090 9958 +111 +067 282042 043 028 001 00
033230 2653N 07014W 6969 03091 9961 +110 +066 283042 042 029 000 00
033300 2652N 07014W 6964 03105 9971 +110 +069 284041 042 024 002 03
$$
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Recon

#3025 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:43 pm

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3026 Postby ozonepete » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:44 pm

WeatherGuesser wrote:
ozonepete wrote:WPB, it's not splitting of hairs. It's called science, which uses exact numbers. For example, the freezing point of water is exactly 32F, not about, or roughly, 32F. This applies to scales of measured amounts as well. Otherwise you have confusion and vagueness which is not good in science. So when the NHC declares that the maximum winds in a hurricane were 156 mph, ...



Freezing and boiling points of items are expressed as 'exact' because they have been measured with calibrated instruments and verified repeatedly.

Wind speeds are estimates. If they sample and 'declare' a speed in this or any system at 156, it is very likely that speed was somewhere between 150 and 160 and no one will ever be able to state exactly. They have to pick a number for the documents.


I'm well aware of the difference; that's why I said "when the NHC declares", meaning the NHC has to ascertain the most reliable value and stick with it. But the final value is accepted as the measurement. And wind speeds are not always estimates. They are often measured exactly by anemometers on land. And even though the SFMR readings and the Dvorak numbers and other calculations are estimates and often not exact, they are all done using the same exact methods, which means they can be used as a safe final measurement for all storms and that allows us to compare one storm to another using these estimated measurements. So they don't "pick a number for the documents." They "get" a final number through painstaking analysis taken from satellite images, recon, etc. And all are measured the same way.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Recon

#3027 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:47 pm

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#3028 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:47 pm

URNT15 KNHC 040342
AF303 1411A JOAQUIN HDOB 31 20151004
033330 2650N 07013W 6968 03100 9972 +108 +070 283041 041 /// /// 03
033400 2651N 07011W 6967 03096 9967 +109 +071 280040 041 025 001 03
033430 2652N 07009W 6964 03096 9963 +110 +070 279042 042 030 000 00
033500 2652N 07007W 6969 03090 9960 +110 +069 280043 044 030 001 00
033530 2652N 07004W 6966 03095 9956 +112 +069 279044 044 032 000 00
033600 2653N 07002W 6969 03086 9955 +114 +071 279044 045 031 000 00
033630 2653N 07002W 6969 03086 9955 +115 +071 278045 045 032 000 00
033700 2653N 06957W 6966 03090 9958 +111 +068 279046 047 033 000 00
033730 2654N 06955W 6966 03091 9957 +110 +067 280047 048 032 001 00
033800 2654N 06952W 6967 03089 9955 +111 +066 281048 048 034 000 00
033830 2654N 06950W 6967 03086 9951 +114 +063 281048 049 034 001 00
033900 2655N 06947W 6970 03084 9953 +110 +066 282050 050 035 001 00
033930 2655N 06945W 6967 03082 9950 +112 +063 284051 052 036 000 00
034000 2655N 06943W 6967 03085 9949 +114 +059 286052 052 033 001 00
034030 2656N 06940W 6966 03084 9947 +115 +056 287053 053 035 001 00
034100 2656N 06938W 6967 03080 9940 +118 +057 286053 054 036 001 00
034130 2656N 06935W 6966 03080 9941 +117 +063 284054 055 037 000 00
034200 2657N 06933W 6968 03078 9938 +115 +066 282054 055 038 001 00
034230 2657N 06930W 6966 03079 9936 +115 +070 281053 054 038 001 00
034300 2657N 06928W 6967 03077 9937 +115 +077 278053 054 037 001 00
$$
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Hurricane - Discussion

#3029 Postby Hammy » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:49 pm

Have they managed to establish contact with Acklins and Crooked Islands yet? I haven't been able to find anything out of those two for a few days.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Recon

#3030 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:52 pm

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Recon

#3031 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Oct 03, 2015 10:58 pm

URNT15 KNHC 040352
AF303 1411A JOAQUIN HDOB 32 20151004
034330 2658N 06926W 6969 03073 9939 +112 +070 278054 054 038 000 00
034400 2658N 06923W 6967 03072 9943 +109 +079 276054 054 040 000 00
034430 2658N 06921W 6966 03075 9945 +105 +092 272055 055 040 001 00
034500 2659N 06918W 6967 03074 9948 +102 +093 270055 055 040 002 00
034530 2659N 06916W 6967 03071 9948 +100 +091 270057 057 042 001 00
034600 2659N 06913W 6969 03070 9944 +105 +086 269057 058 043 002 00
034630 2700N 06911W 6967 03073 9944 +104 +088 268058 059 045 000 00
034700 2700N 06908W 6966 03072 9941 +105 +084 266058 059 046 001 00
034730 2700N 06906W 6969 03067 9936 +107 +083 266059 060 045 001 00
034800 2701N 06903W 6965 03067 9935 +110 +075 266061 062 045 001 00
034830 2701N 06901W 6969 03066 9935 +110 +082 262061 062 045 000 00
034900 2702N 06858W 6967 03069 9932 +111 +073 262060 061 047 001 00
034930 2702N 06855W 6967 03069 9929 +114 +075 261062 063 047 001 00
035000 2702N 06853W 6966 03068 9927 +115 +073 260064 065 049 001 00
035030 2703N 06850W 6966 03068 9928 +115 +068 260066 066 049 000 00
035100 2703N 06848W 6969 03065 9928 +115 +069 258067 067 046 002 00
035130 2703N 06845W 6967 03067 9926 +114 +075 256068 069 049 001 00
035200 2704N 06842W 6965 03066 9926 +115 +076 254068 069 049 001 00
035230 2704N 06840W 6967 03067 9927 +115 +075 253068 068 048 001 00
035300 2704N 06837W 6967 03065 9925 +115 +074 251068 069 050 000 00
$$
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Recon

#3032 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Oct 03, 2015 11:00 pm

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#3033 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Oct 03, 2015 11:04 pm

URNT15 KNHC 040402
AF303 1411A JOAQUIN HDOB 33 20151004
035330 2705N 06835W 6964 03068 9925 +114 +075 251069 070 049 001 00
035400 2705N 06832W 6971 03062 9928 +114 +073 248071 071 047 002 00
035430 2705N 06829W 6966 03065 9925 +115 +074 247072 072 045 002 00
035500 2706N 06827W 6969 03064 9924 +117 +070 246072 073 048 003 00
035530 2706N 06824W 6967 03068 9925 +118 +068 244073 074 052 002 00
035600 2706N 06821W 6970 03065 9930 +115 +074 243072 073 053 001 00
035630 2707N 06819W 6966 03067 9927 +117 +070 241074 074 052 001 03
035700 2707N 06816W 6971 03060 9927 +117 +070 241074 075 051 001 00
035730 2707N 06814W 6966 03070 9928 +116 +071 240076 076 049 000 00
035800 2708N 06811W 6965 03072 9929 +116 +070 238077 077 050 000 00
035830 2708N 06808W 6969 03067 9932 +115 +072 238078 079 050 000 00
035900 2708N 06806W 6965 03073 9932 +115 +071 240078 078 050 000 03
035930 2709N 06803W 6963 03073 9933 +113 +072 241077 078 050 001 00
040000 2709N 06800W 6971 03066 9934 +115 +070 241077 077 052 002 00
040030 2709N 06758W 6967 03076 9929 +120 +066 235076 077 052 002 00
040100 2710N 06755W 6959 03085 9935 +116 +069 238076 077 051 001 00
040130 2710N 06753W 6973 03069 9935 +117 +073 238075 076 049 000 00
040200 2710N 06750W 6961 03081 9941 +111 +081 237075 078 048 001 00
040230 2711N 06747W 6963 03080 9942 +112 +076 237072 073 050 002 00
040300 2711N 06745W 6969 03077 9944 +109 +083 236073 074 055 005 00
$$
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Recon

#3034 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Oct 03, 2015 11:05 pm

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Recon

#3035 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Oct 03, 2015 11:06 pm

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#3036 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Oct 03, 2015 11:09 pm

Water vapor from floater:

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Recon

#3037 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Oct 03, 2015 11:11 pm

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Recon

#3038 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Oct 03, 2015 11:17 pm

URNT15 KNHC 040412
AF303 1411A JOAQUIN HDOB 34 20151004
040330 2711N 06742W 6968 03077 9962 +111 +106 233078 080 055 006 03
040400 2711N 06740W 6977 03067 9962 +111 //// 227074 079 052 008 05
040430 2712N 06737W 6962 03085 9960 +107 //// 228073 076 047 005 05
040500 2712N 06735W 6966 03083 9957 +109 //// 226074 077 046 005 05
040530 2712N 06732W 6957 03092 9968 +104 //// 223077 080 047 006 01
040600 2713N 06730W 6969 03082 //// +099 //// 224079 081 046 004 01
040630 2713N 06727W 6971 03081 9956 +102 +100 224077 079 050 003 01
040700 2713N 06725W 6965 03090 9966 +098 +095 220074 076 050 003 01
040730 2714N 06722W 6970 03084 9965 +099 +093 221070 073 050 002 00
040800 2714N 06720W 6963 03094 9959 +105 +091 224069 069 048 003 00
040830 2714N 06717W 6967 03089 9959 +103 +096 223072 075 048 002 00
040900 2714N 06715W 6967 03090 //// +099 //// 222077 078 047 004 01
040930 2715N 06712W 6970 03091 //// +100 //// 224077 079 048 003 01
041000 2715N 06710W 6965 03100 9981 +104 //// 223078 080 048 003 01
041030 2715N 06707W 6966 03100 9995 +103 //// 223072 077 048 011 05
041100 2716N 06705W 6967 03099 //// +097 //// 223071 073 047 004 01
041130 2716N 06702W 6965 03103 //// +096 //// 228070 073 046 003 01
041200 2716N 06700W 6964 03102 //// +099 //// 228069 071 046 004 05
041230 2717N 06657W 6969 03096 9976 +101 //// 226073 077 044 005 05
041300 2717N 06655W 6958 03117 //// +093 //// 217076 082 /// /// 05
$$
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Recon

#3039 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Oct 03, 2015 11:18 pm

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#3040 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Oct 03, 2015 11:26 pm

URNT15 KNHC 040422
AF303 1411A JOAQUIN HDOB 35 20151004
041330 2720N 06655W 6980 03092 //// +084 //// 218076 082 /// /// 05
041400 2721N 06656W 6968 03097 9981 +107 +107 221074 076 /// /// 03
041430 2722N 06658W 6958 03110 9978 +107 //// 220071 073 045 007 05
041500 2723N 06659W 6976 03087 9980 +103 //// 219067 069 039 005 01
041530 2725N 06701W 6961 03106 //// +098 //// 219069 070 043 003 01
041600 2726N 06702W 6971 03092 9970 +105 +094 221072 073 044 003 00
041630 2727N 06703W 6962 03098 9961 +110 +087 219071 072 046 002 00
041700 2728N 06705W 6971 03088 9960 +108 +089 218073 073 053 002 00
041730 2730N 06706W 6966 03090 9961 +105 +093 216073 074 053 002 00
041800 2731N 06708W 6964 03087 9958 +105 +091 216073 074 051 003 00
041830 2732N 06709W 6968 03080 9957 +100 +095 214073 074 051 003 00
041900 2733N 06710W 6969 03078 9961 +097 +091 213074 074 050 002 00
041930 2735N 06712W 6963 03081 9956 +098 //// 212073 074 051 005 01
042000 2736N 06713W 6958 03085 9972 +105 +105 206077 078 053 010 00
042030 2737N 06715W 6979 03057 9975 +107 +107 208074 078 052 022 00
042100 2739N 06716W 6977 03054 9967 +109 +109 216085 088 055 021 03
042130 2740N 06718W 6971 03058 9952 +110 +110 214086 089 058 010 03
042200 2741N 06719W 6971 03063 9949 +113 +113 217087 090 056 009 03
042230 2743N 06720W 6969 03061 9935 +114 +114 214079 089 054 007 03
042300 2744N 06722W 6970 03053 9944 +110 +110 214080 084 052 011 03
$$
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