ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[galaxy401]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
200 PM AST MON OCT 05 2015

...JOAQUIN MOVING FARTHER AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 64.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 64.5 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a turn
toward the northeast is expected later today, followed by a turn
toward the east-northeast on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Joaquin will continue to move away from Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Joaquin is expected to transition to a large extratropical low
pressure system on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km). A sustained wind speed of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust to
53 mph (85 km/h) were reported at the Bermuda International Airport
during the past hour.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical-storm-force wind gusts could affect Bermuda for a
few more hours.

STORM SURGE: Water levels near Bermuda should gradually subside
today. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
potentially damaging waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Joaquin will continue to affect portions
of the Bahamas during the next day or so. Swells are affecting
much of the east coast of the United States and will spread
northward along the coast of Atlantic Canada during the next day or
two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Even though Joaquin is passing well east of the
coast of the United States, a prolonged period of elevated water
levels and large waves will affect the mid-Atlantic region, causing
significant beach and dune erosion with moderate coastal flooding
likely. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[xironman]

Seeing reports that the El Faro is confirmed down; large debris field, one body recovered, search ongoing.

Amazingly about the same size boat at 7-8 hundred feet.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vST6hVRj2A

Code: Select all

They might have split up or they might have capsized
They may have broke deep and took water
And all that remains is the faces and the names
Of the wives and the sons and the daughters

[abajan]

Seeing reports that the El Faro is confirmed down; large debris field, one body recovered, search ongoing.

Amazingly about the same size boat at 7-8 hundred feet.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vST6hVRj2A

Code: Select all

They might have split up or they might have capsized
They may have broke deep and took water
And all that remains is the faces and the names
Of the wives and the sons and the daughters

Roughly, the same number of souls on board too.

[chaser1]

Seeing reports that the El Faro is confirmed down; large debris field, one body recovered, search ongoing.

Amazingly about the same size boat at 7-8 hundred feet.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vST6hVRj2A

Code: Select all

They might have split up or they might have capsized
They may have broke deep and took water
And all that remains is the faces and the names
Of the wives and the sons and the daughters

Roughly, the same number of souls on board too.

Really tragic. I think Coast Guard is still out hoping to find any survivors from what i had heard CNN report to be 33 on-board the ship; those odds are quickly decreasing with time though.

[Sanibel]

More like the Fantome that sailed south in order to avoid the predicted recurve path of Hurricane Mitch in 1998 only to have Mitch turn south and come right at it as a category 5 with 180mph winds. All that was found of the sailship Fantome and her crew of 30 was a ladder. Mitch wasn't done killing. 11,000 people died in catastrophic floods from 75 inches of rain when Mitch stalled over Central America. 11,000 were missing and 2.7 million were homeless.

[xironman]

More like the Fantome that sailed south in order to avoid the predicted recurve path of Hurricane Mitch in 1998 only to have Mitch turn south and come right at it as a category 5 with 180mph winds. All that was found of the sailship Fantome and her crew of 30 was a ladder. Mitch wasn't done killing. 11,000 people died in catastrophic floods from 75 inches of rain when Mitch stalled over Central America. 11,000 were missing and 2.7 million were homeless.

Joaquin was barely moving, not sure how it could overtake a ship.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane ... _track.png

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morn ... t-into-it/

[CrazyC83]

More like the Fantome that sailed south in order to avoid the predicted recurve path of Hurricane Mitch in 1998 only to have Mitch turn south and come right at it as a category 5 with 180mph winds. All that was found of the sailship Fantome and her crew of 30 was a ladder. Mitch wasn't done killing. 11,000 people died in catastrophic floods from 75 inches of rain when Mitch stalled over Central America. 11,000 were missing and 2.7 million were homeless.

Joaquin was barely moving, not sure how it could overtake a ship.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane ... _track.png

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/morn ... t-into-it/

The forecast track changed enough that it steered right into its path, and really had nowhere to go due to the Bahamas and Cuba to the west.

As for Joaquin, I'm thinking maybe back to Cat 2 now? Although I'd want to see an ASCAT pass or something.

[WeatherGuesser]

Looks like the UK may be getting a taste by next weekend.

[Lifeless]

Looks like the UK may be getting a taste by next weekend.

Not entirely sure if we will actually. The models are changing more or less every run. Neither the ECM or GFS are currently in agreement, and only the recent ECM is actually going for a path over the UK. I feel like Spain or France will more likely be getting a taste due to the high pressure that's likely going to take place over the UK.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like the UK may be getting a taste by next weekend.

Not entirely sure if we will actually. The models are changing more or less every run. Neither the ECM or GFS are currently in agreement, and only the recent ECM is actually going for a path over the UK. I feel like Spain or France will more likely be getting a taste due to the high pressure that's likely going to take place over the UK.

Could this stay low enough to have a shot at the Azores as a tropical cyclone?

[Lifeless]

Looks like the UK may be getting a taste by next weekend.

Not entirely sure if we will actually. The models are changing more or less every run. Neither the ECM or GFS are currently in agreement, and only the recent ECM is actually going for a path over the UK. I feel like Spain or France will more likely be getting a taste due to the high pressure that's likely going to take place over the UK.

Could this stay low enough to have a shot at the Azores as a tropical cyclone?

If it can escape the jet stream, possibly. The whole issue why the models a struggling to get this storm down in the first place is due to the jet stream splitting around the high expected over the UK. I guess if the high pressure sustains itself better over Europe and forces the storm south, it could potentially drop down to the Azores, but it doesn't appear to be the case currently.

[tolakram]

Live IR.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=37&lon=-59&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir4.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=black

[WeatherGuesser]

NHC 5 day track shows Ireland Sunday/Monday.

That's all I use.

[Sanibel]

Joaquin is mocking its victims with a pinhole eye.

[CrazyC83]

It looks to have strengthened again? 70 kt might be too low right now with that well-defined eye.

[emeraldislenc]

It has been a very impressive storm!

[CrazyC83]

Yeah the question is how much longer?

[ozonepete]

I have been watching hurricanes (and all TCs) on satellite since the first satellite images and I don't ever remember one that looked this good that far out in the Atlantic. The presentation on satellite is just awesome for that area.

[1900hurricane]

Not bad at all.

[CrazyC83]

I'd personally have it at 85 kt with that.