Global model runs discussion

[WeatherLovingDoc]

GFS continues to advertise a big system in the Tropical Atlantic as the calender turns to August.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

While a long way out, I will be following this specifically as we near July 31/August 1 or so in anticipation of travel with two children to the Windward Islands first week of August. We would rather not vacation in heavy rain/storms and would just hold off our travel.

I do so very much appreciate (and utilize) this site. Thank you all.

WLD.

[expat2carib]

It will be Ana

The date will be the 8th of August

Thanks wxman57 for the tip

[WeatherLovingDoc]

It will be Ana

The date will be the 8th of August

Thanks wxman57 for the tip

Hahaha! I read that post. But, what if he is right?

(Not a forecast/wishcast or anything like that!).

[expat2carib]

I hope he is

I just placed my last 20 bucks at my bookie. Ana, 8th of august

[WeatherLovingDoc]

Lol, you're bad expat! But, I do watch for your posts.

[expat2carib]

Fun aside. Nobody knows. It's too far in the future. It's even impossible to use statistics. I guess you have to make the decision 3 days before you travel. And even then it will be a 50/50

[cycloneye]

7/22/09 12z EURO shows a couple of interesting things.First something enters the Bay of Campeche and second the Bermuda high pressure expands westward leaving less troufiness in the east coast of U.S.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[wxman57]

It will be Ana

The date will be the 8th of August

Thanks wxman57 for the tip

Hahaha! I read that post. But, what if he is right?

(Not a forecast/wishcast or anything like that!).

What do you mean "what if he's right?"

I did notice the GFS has that big system out there by the 7th.

[srainhoutx]

What do you mean "what if he's right?"

I did notice the GFS has that big system out there by the 7th.

That "mirage"

[WeatherLovingDoc]

"What do you mean "what if he's right?"

I did notice the GFS has that big system out there by the 7th."

Sorry Wxman57. I'm one of those glass half full kind of woman, which when Talking Tropics may mean and

for getting us (the site) back up and running!

WLD

Not a wishcast or forecast, just thoughts of an amateur weather lover.

[SETXWXLADY]

7/22/09 12z EURO shows a couple of interesting things.First something enters the Bay of Campeche and second the Bermuda high pressure expands westward leaving less troufiness in the east coast of U.S.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

I've been noticing that too. The GFS has been trying to spin something up in the WGOM. The 12z CMC hnts at it. Guess we'll see.






AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
346 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2009

.DISCUSSION...

BY SUN AFTERNOON INTO WED OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER FRONTAL TROF WILL
APPROACH THE REGION...ALONG WITH INCREASED MOISTURE FROM A
TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN GULF. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
CHANCES OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHRA/TSRA THROUGH
THIS TIME PERIOD. WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL BE LIMITED TO NEAR 90...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS AGAIN REMAINING
IN THE MID 70S.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I checked 850 mb vorticity, and then 700 mb theta-e fields from the Canadian, and I see nothing through 144 hours in the GOMEX.

New GFS running, through 5 days, nothing.

[SETXWXLADY]

I checked 850 mb vorticity, and then 700 mb theta-e fields from the Canadian, and I see nothing through 144 hours in the GOMEX.

New GFS running, through 5 days, nothing.

They were hinting at it earlier.

[SETXWXLADY]

They've been dropping the intensity since the 18z runs. But there's still some rain coming in. With a tropical wave out there ya never know.

[alan1961]

http://www.wunderground.com/data/models ... 0607232009

Looking interesting from August 1st..think your on the money wxman..Ana if this setup verifies

[cycloneye]

It looks like the Canadian model wants to start the African train very soon.Before this 144 hour timeframe,it shows some flashes between Africa and the Lesser Antilles.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

If the CFS model is correct,a pattern change will be instored from the fall-like weather in the east coast of U.S.that will be suplanted by high pressure in August.



http://wxcaster4.com/cfs/CONUS_CFS_500_ ... 1MONTH.gif

[Stormcenter]

Why do I have the feeling 2009 is not going to turn out to be like 2004?

Most so called "experts" predicted an average to below average season and it looks
like the 2009 season is following that script word for word. Heck it may even be more
below then average. Yeah, yeah I know it only takes one but I like my chances better when there are only 2 rounds in a revolver then 8.

[fwbbreeze]

Why do I have the feeling 2009 is not going to turn out to be like 2004?

Most so called "experts" predicted an average to below average season and it looks
like the 2009 season is following that script word for word. Heck it may even be more
below then average. Yeah, yeah I know it only takes one but I like my chances better when there are only 2 rounds in a revolver then 8.

Hey its only July 23rd, dont throw in the towel yet

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

It's good to have a break from hurricanes after last years devastating storms
(Ike especially)...
Here's to hoping that any hurricanes that do form stay out to sea and away
from any land. The peak of the season is still yet to come- but hopefully
nobody gets hurt.