EPAC: GUILLERMO - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Dvorak CI values in this situation are useless.

I'd have this at 80 knts at best.

[Alyono]

I went 85 kts at 3Z

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS again has a hurricane making a very close call with the Big Island of Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

20kts on CIMSS already set to increase to 40kts.

No idea how this will survive until Thursday and be anything but a remnant low.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Shear is still between 10-20 knts per CIMSS. Agree we're looking at maybe a remnant low, but still a flood threat.

[Kingarabian]

20kts on CIMSS already set to increase to 40kts.

No idea how this will survive until Thursday and be anything but a remnant low.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Shear is still between 10-20 knts per CIMSS. Agree we're looking at maybe a remnant low, but still a flood threat.

Don't understand the GFS and how it keeps this a hurricane.

[Kingarabian]

I guess 90kts is justifiable.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow, much better on microwave than I thought. Recon tomorrow will be interesting.

[Kingarabian]

4.0/5.0 from SAB

4.5 from TAFB

4.0 ADT

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN23 KNES 020544
TCSCNP

A. 09E (GUILLERMO)

B. 02/0530Z

C. 14.1N

D. 141.9W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/5.0/W0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMI/WINDSAT/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...DT=4.0 BASED IN MG EMBEDDED CENTER. PT=4.0. MET=4.0. FT
IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

02/0001Z 13.8N 140.8W SSMI
02/0342Z 14.0N 141.6W WINDSAT
02/0417Z 14.0N 141.7W SSMIS

4.0 seems a bit low here.

[Yellow Evan]

I'd have this at 80-85ish, but

EP, 09, 2015080206, , BEST, 0, 141N, 1418W, 90, 970, HU, 34, NEQ, 120, 110, 70, 100, 1008, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GUILLERMO, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,

[Yellow Evan]

4.0/5.0 from SAB

4.5 from TAFB

4.0 ADT

TAFB doesn't Dvorak for CPAC storms AFAIK.

CPHC and JTWC do Dvorak for the CPAC and have this at:

A. Hurricane Guillermo.

B. 02/0500Z.

C. 14.2°N.

D. 141.7°W.

E. Goes-15.

F. T4.5/5.0/s0.0/24 hours.

G. Ir/eir/vis.

H. Remarks: Dense overcast remains mainly unchanged from previous fix, except for a little erosion along the southwest edge. Embedded center pattern rules with lg surrounding shade yield 4.5. PT agrees and MET is 5.0. FT based on met.

I. Addl positions none.

$$

Reynes.

TPPZ01 PGTW 020700

A. HURRICANE 09E (GUILLERMO)

B. 02/0530Z

C. 14.23N

D. 141.80W

E. FIVE/GOES15

F. T4.0/5.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN CMG,
YIELDING A DT OF 5.0. MET AND PT YIELD A 4.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


CHAPPOTIN

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092015
1100 PM HST SAT AUG 01 2015

THE INFRARED SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO BE
RAGGED THIS EVENING. DESPITE ITS POOR APPEARANCE IN GEOSTATIONARY
BASED SATELLITE IMAGERY...MICROWAVE PASSES AVAILABLE ON THE FNMOC
WEB SITE CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED EYE SURROUNDED BY A CLOSED
EYEWALL. TWO EXAMPLES OF THIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY ARE THE 0342Z
WINDSAT PASS AND THE 0412Z SSMIS PASS. THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB...HFO AND JTWC WERE ALL 5.0/90 KT. AS A
RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES
AT 12 KT. THE MAIN STEERING FEATURE REMAINS A DEEP RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THERE IS A BREAK IN
THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTHWEST OF GUILLERMO...AND
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY.
AS A RESULT...A GRADUAL SLOWING OF THE FORWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS GUILLERMO SHIFTS ITS FORWARD
MOTION SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST INTO THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE.
MOST OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE BASED ON RELIABLE DYNAMICAL
MODELS AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS REMAIN TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THE MOST
RECENT TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT CLOSER TO
THE LATEST TVCN FORECAST. NOTE THAT ON THIS LATEST TRACK...GUILLERMO
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY.

SOME SLOW WEAKENING OF GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS. AS GUILLERMO HEADS INTO THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALOFT...THE
OUTFLOW SHOULD BECOME DISRUPTED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AND
EVENTUALLY ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY STARTING ON DAY THREE. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE IVCN WHICH IS LESS AGGRESSIVE IN WEAKENING AS COMPARED
WITH SHIPS. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST...GUILLERMO WILL BE A WEAKENING
TROPICAL STORM AS IT APPROACHES THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR THOSE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NOT TO FOCUS
TOO CLOSELY ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANY
TROPICAL CYCLONE...INCLUDING GUILLERMO. THE AVERAGE 96 HOUR FORECAST
TRACK ERROR IS JUST OVER 200 STATUTE MILES...WHILE THE 120 HOUR
FORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 300 STATUTE MILES...IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO
DETERMINE WITH ANY CERTAINTY WHICH ISLANDS WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM GUILLERMO. IT ALSO IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN EXTEND
WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

THE FIRST AIRCRAFT FROM THE U.S. 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE
SQUADRON IS SCHEDULED TO BEGIN A RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO
GUILLERMO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ALSO...THE NOAA G-IV AIRCRAFT WILL
CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SAMPLING MISSION AROUND GUILLERMO DURING ITS
TRANSIT TO HAWAII ON SUNDAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 14.2N 142.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 14.8N 143.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 15.5N 145.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 16.2N 146.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 17.0N 148.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 18.6N 151.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 20.5N 155.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 22.4N 159.2W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[Kingarabian]

SAB is at 5.0.

[NDG]

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092015
500 AM HST SUN AUG 02 2015

THE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND HURRICANE GUILLERMO APPEARS TO BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB...HFO AND JTWC WERE ALL 5.0/90 KT. AS A
RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES
AT 11 KT. THE MAIN STEERING FEATURE IS THE WESTERN END OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A BREAK IN THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF GUILLERMO...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...
THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT SLOWER STARTING LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE BASED ON RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE
CONSENSUS MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THE MOST RECENT TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH DAY 3. THERE IS A
VERY SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE RIGHT DURING DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO A
NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE TVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. NOTE THAT THE LATEST
FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO BRING GUILLERMO VERY CLOSE TO THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AS GUILLERMO MOVES INTO THE
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALOFT...THE OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME
DISRUPTED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE. THE
CURRENT ESTIMATES OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF
GUILLERMO ARE 12 TO 13 KT FROM 305 DEGREES BASED ON THE LATEST
UW/CIMSS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE ADVERSE IMPACTS OF THIS SHEAR ON
GUILLERMO ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT STARTING IN 48
HOURS BASED ON THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO
INDICATE GUILLERMO WILL BE A WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM AS IT
APPROACHES THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR THOSE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NOT TO FOCUS
TOO CLOSELY ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANY
TROPICAL CYCLONE...INCLUDING GUILLERMO. THE AVERAGE 96 HOUR FORECAST
TRACK ERROR IS JUST OVER 200 STATUTE MILES...WHILE THE 120 HOUR
FORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 300 STATUTE MILES. IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO
DETERMINE WITH ANY CERTAINTY WHICH ISLANDS WOULD MOST LIKELY
EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM GUILLERMO. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT
TO NOTE THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN EXTEND
WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

THE FIRST AIRCRAFT FROM THE U.S. 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE
SQUADRON IS SCHEDULED TO BEGIN A RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO
GUILLERMO LATER THIS MORNING. THE VALUABLE DATA TRANSMITTED IN
REAL-TIME FROM THESE MISSIONS WILL HELP US TO BETTER DETERMINE THE
LOCATION...INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE HURRICANE. ALSO...THE NOAA G-IV
AIRCRAFT WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SAMPLING MISSION AROUND GUILLERMO
DURING ITS TRANSIT TO HAWAII LATER TODAY. THIS SAMPLING SHOULD HELP
THE FORECAST MODELS TO HAVE A BETTER INITIALIZATION OF THE RIDGING
ALOFT AND THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT IN THE VAST DATA VOID REGIONS
OF THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 14.5N 143.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 15.0N 144.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 15.7N 146.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 16.5N 147.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 17.3N 149.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 18.9N 152.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 21.0N 156.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 22.8N 160.1W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like some dry air got in.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA44 PHFO 021509 CCA
TCDCP4

HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092015
500 AM HST SUN AUG 02 2015

THE DEEP CONVECTION AROUND HURRICANE GUILLERMO APPEARS TO BE
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING IN INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM SAB...HFO AND JTWC WERE ALL 5.0/90 KT. AS A
RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 90 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

GUILLERMO CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES
AT 11 KT. THE MAIN STEERING FEATURE IS THE WESTERN END OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE HURRICANE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A BREAK IN THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING TO
THE NORTHWEST OF GUILLERMO...AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO DEEPEN TO THE NORTH OF THE HURRICANE LATER TODAY. AS A RESULT...
THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
SOMEWHAT SLOWER STARTING LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MOST OF THE
OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE BASED ON RELIABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE
CONSENSUS MODELS IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THE MOST RECENT TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH DAY 3. THERE IS A
VERY SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE RIGHT DURING DAYS 4 AND 5 DUE TO A
NORTHWARD SHIFT OF THE TVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. NOTE THAT THE LATEST
FORECAST TRACK CONTINUES TO BRING GUILLERMO VERY CLOSE TO THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

IN REGARDS TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST...AS GUILLERMO MOVES INTO THE
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE ALOFT...THE OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY BECOME
DISRUPTED IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO LIKELY INCREASE. THE
CURRENT ESTIMATES OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE VICINITY OF
GUILLERMO ARE 12 TO 13 KT FROM 305 DEGREES BASED ON THE LATEST
UW/CIMSS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE ADVERSE IMPACTS OF THIS SHEAR ON
GUILLERMO ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT STARTING IN 48
HOURS BASED ON THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE CURRENT FORECAST CONTINUES TO
INDICATE GUILLERMO WILL BE A WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM AS IT
APPROACHES THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

IT IS IMPORTANT FOR THOSE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS NOT TO FOCUS
TOO CLOSELY ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK OF THE CENTER OF ANY
TROPICAL CYCLONE...INCLUDING GUILLERMO. THE AVERAGE 96 HOUR FORECAST
TRACK ERROR IS JUST OVER 200 STATUTE MILES...WHILE THE 120 HOUR
FORECAST ERROR IS ABOUT 300 STATUTE MILES. IT IS STILL TOO SOON TO
DETERMINE WITH ANY CERTAINTY WHICH ISLANDS WOULD MOST LIKELY
EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM GUILLERMO. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT
TO NOTE THAT SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN EXTEND
WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER.

THE FIRST AIRCRAFT FROM THE U.S. 53RD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE
SQUADRON IS SCHEDULED TO BEGIN A RECONNAISSANCE MISSION INTO
GUILLERMO LATER THIS MORNING. THE VALUABLE DATA TRANSMITTED IN
REAL-TIME FROM THESE MISSIONS WILL HELP US TO BETTER DETERMINE THE
LOCATION...INTENSITY AND SIZE OF THE HURRICANE. ALSO...THE NOAA G-IV
AIRCRAFT WILL CONDUCT A SYNOPTIC SAMPLING MISSION AROUND GUILLERMO
DURING ITS TRANSIT TO HAWAII LATER TODAY. THIS SAMPLING SHOULD HELP
THE FORECAST MODELS TO HAVE A BETTER INITIALIZATION OF THE RIDGING
ALOFT AND THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT IN THE VAST DATA VOID REGIONS
OF THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 14.5N 143.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 15.0N 144.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 15.7N 146.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 16.5N 147.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 17.3N 149.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 18.9N 152.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 21.0N 156.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 22.8N 160.1W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[CrazyC83]

Notice in the last pass, the pressure rose without a wind shift? Did Recon miss the center or is there an unusual structure?

[CrazyC83]

Looking at Recon, I would say 70 kt for the intensity with pressure of 976mb.

[Yellow Evan]

70/974 is good.