ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Here comes the reds:

[psyclone]

Lots of bearish posts in here and Danny's long term future may indeed be grim should the storm enter the Caribbean but right now that's a long way off and the Atlantic is putting on a show...we have a well organized rapidly developing storm in the deep tropics...something many of us (including me) didn't expect this year...kick back and enjoy the show:)

[NDG]

Danny since it got off the African coast has had a moisture latch from the ITCZ and monsoonal trough, even the area NW of it where the SAL is the lower atmosphere is fairly moist.

[lordkev]

Of course when we leave St Kitts is when the storm spins up. I was hoping to see a good soaking when something finally came through. However, with how strong it may get, maybe it's better we're off island. Don't see any hurricanes coming to get us in Spain!

[NDG]

Buoy 41026 reported 42 knot winds at 22z as Danny passes just to the south of it.

Conditions at 41026 as of
2200 GMT on 08/18/2015:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 75.2 °F
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 42.0 kts
Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E (100 deg)

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41026

[AJC3]

Buoy 41026 reported 42 knot winds at 22z as Danny passes just to the south of it.

Conditions at 41026 as of
2200 GMT on 08/18/2015:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 75.2 °F
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 42.0 kts
Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E (100 deg)

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41026

Talk about a buoy being perfectly placed to catch the near-max winds of an intensifying system. Some serious serendipity there.

[latitude_20]

I'm going to be at my girl's house on the Yucatan coast on Saturday... might make for an interesting trip indeed. She's already stocking up on food, water and rum.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 182346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015


...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM AT
18/2100 UTC. TROPICAL STORM DANNY IS CENTERED NEAR 10.9N37.5W AT
18/2100 UTC OR ABOUT ABOUT 1386 NM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
MOVING W AT 10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 9N-13N
BETWEEN 36W-41W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 9N37W TO 6N40W. PLEASE SEE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCMAT4/
WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

[ozonepete]

I'm going to be at my girl's house on the Yucatan coast on Saturday... might make for an interesting trip indeed. She's already stocking up on food, water and rum.

the 3 staples, lol...

[Weatherboy1]

Definitely some stronger convection firing up tonight. If that persists overnight, Danny could deepen at a decent clip

[gatorcane]

Here is an interesting graphic I found from the Palm Beach Post (Palm Beach, Florida) that discusses Danny. Actually a few of those tracks are similar to what the models are showing currently.



full article:
http://weatherplus.blog.palmbeachpost.c ... as-formed/

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT

WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:47 PM ECT TUE, AUG 18, 2015

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IS FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC.THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AND AN ALERT MAY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME POSES NO THREAT TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST. DANNY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A MOTION TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND DANNY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM) FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB (29.77 INCHES).

FORECASTER KEITHLEY MEADE

[SouthFLTropics]

Here is an interesting graphic I found from the Palm Beach Post (Palm Beach, Florida) that discusses Danny. Actually a few of those tracks are similar to what the models are showing currently.



full article:
http://weatherplus.blog.palmbeachpost.c ... as-formed/

The scary part is I can easily name the 3 shown there hitting Florida. David in 1979, Andrew in 1992, Frances in 2004.

SFT

[MGC]

Danny is organizing at a fairly good rate this evening. At this rate, I would not be surprised if Danny becomes a hurricane tomorrow. Further, I would not be surprised if Danny is approaching Cat-3 intensity as the hurricane approaches the islands. Dry air has not been an issue with this system, shear is low and convection is almost completely wrapping around a developing inner core. The ULL ahead of the cyclone are moving away from Danny so upper level conditions look to be improving ahead of the storm. Don't like the model trends this evening, this storm might surprise a lot of people who were expecting a dead season.....MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[abajan]

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT

WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
5:47 PM ECT TUE, AUG 18, 2015

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES IS FOLLOWING THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM DANNY LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL NORTH ATLANTIC.THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST AND AN ALERT MAY BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. ...

What kind of alert could they be looking to issue so soon for a system so far away? Then again, I guess memories of Luis in 1995 are still fresh in their minds. The track, with the ominous bend back to the west, currently forecast by the NHC is certainly reminiscent of that taken by Luis.

[Ivanhater]

I agree MGC....I really am curious why some of the models like Euro and GFS make this so tiny on their runs ..odd

[ronjon]

Danny really wrapping up on SAT tonite. Looks to be rapidly deepening.

[cycloneye]

Up to 45kts

AL, 04, 2015081900, , BEST, 0, 111N, 383W, 45, 1000, TS

[johngaltfla]

Up to 45kts

AL, 04, 2015081900, , BEST, 0, 111N, 383W, 45, 1000, TS

I would be a lot happier if it would intensify rapidly, start to turn NW and miss the box.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I agree MGC....I really am curious why some of the models like Euro and GFS make this so tiny on their runs ..odd

I agree Ivan even as it is in the developing stages the size is by no means small. Great to see you on and posting Ivan, miss all your post from years passed.