ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

I don't think it will matter much whether it's exposed or not. The front is liable to wring out a ton of rain out of Joaquin. GFS has up to 10"+ and more over the NC Coast and over Chesapeake Bay in the 7 day range. The front will bring some of the rain as well. Often these types of systems running up east of a front will dump a ton of water on the western side as the front slows and the systems sort of merge.

A few Precipitation Total runs by the GFS hit on the FL Panhandle for 99L. 06Z has it out for NC. And just because it was right for the Panhandle, it probably overestimated a little on the West Coast of Florida. Here is the 06Z Precipitation Total link from GFS. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... Size=M&ps=

[NDG]

live visible loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

I was about to post this satellite loop, clearly Joaquin's LLC is almost naked, just some high cirrus clouds on top of it with most of the convection over by the MLC. Something about this year with NW shear displacing the MLC vorticity to the south.

However, wasn't the LLC even more exposed 24 hours ago? It recovered from that with the LLC being pulled south into the convection/mid level circ. Do you think that will happen again? Why wouldn't it do it again? Opinion?

Yes, it was more exposed 24 hrs ago and its track towards the south helped it get closer to the MLC and convection during the night but it's circulation is still half naked. Like mentioned by the NHC the SHIPS model forecasts the moderate to strong shear to continue through the next 24-36 hrs, I do not think it will get any worst looking than this, from there shear is forecasted to come down, but we all know how unpredictable mid and upper level winds can be.

[Extratropical94]

They will go this afternoon.

Code: Select all

ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS....ADDED
    1. TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72           
       A. 29/1730Z
       B. AFXXX 0211A JOAQUIN         
       C. 29/1315Z                     
       D. 26.6N 71.2W
       E. 29/1700Z TO 29/2100Z         
       F. SFC TO 10,000FT             

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....FURTHER TASKING ON JOAQUIN.

Yup, they are en route to Joaquin right now.

URNT15 KNHC 291423
AF300 0211A JOAQUIN HDOB 08 20150929
141430 2933N 08212W 3921 07757 0433 -154 -166 161006 006 /// /// 03
141500 2932N 08210W 3925 07750 0433 -150 -170 177005 005 /// /// 03
141530 2931N 08207W 3923 07754 0433 -150 -170 188005 006 /// /// 03
141600 2930N 08204W 3923 07751 0432 -153 -167 201005 005 /// /// 03
141630 2929N 08202W 3923 07755 0433 -155 -165 223005 005 /// /// 03
141700 2928N 08159W 3922 07756 0434 -154 -165 232005 005 /// /// 03
141730 2927N 08157W 3923 07754 0433 -154 -166 241007 007 /// /// 03
141800 2926N 08154W 3923 07754 0433 -152 -161 246007 007 /// /// 03
141830 2925N 08151W 3926 07746 0432 -152 -167 248006 007 /// /// 03
141900 2924N 08149W 3925 07751 0433 -155 -170 253007 008 /// /// 03
141930 2923N 08146W 3923 07755 0433 -155 -166 255009 010 /// /// 03
142000 2922N 08143W 3923 07752 0433 -155 -163 260010 010 /// /// 03
142030 2921N 08141W 3922 07755 0433 -155 -164 261009 010 /// /// 03
142100 2920N 08138W 3923 07751 0432 -151 -169 260009 010 /// /// 03
142130 2919N 08135W 3921 07756 0432 -151 -173 256011 012 /// /// 03
142200 2917N 08133W 3923 07751 0431 -155 -169 256012 012 /// /// 03
142230 2916N 08130W 3922 07754 0431 -155 -165 257012 012 /// /// 03
142300 2915N 08127W 3922 07752 0431 -154 -168 259011 012 /// /// 03
142330 2914N 08124W 3923 07751 0432 -154 -173 261012 013 /// /// 03
142400 2913N 08122W 3925 07749 0431 -154 -173 262013 014 /// /// 03

[tolakram]

latest with track

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 29 2015

Visible satellite imagery this morning shows that the cloud pattern
of the tropical cyclone is somewhat better organized than it was 24
hours ago. The low-level center is situated near the northern side
of the main area of deep convection due to northerly shear. The
upper level outflow is well defined over the southern semicircle of
the system, and restricted over the northern part of the
circulation. The current intensity is conservatively set at 45 kt,
which is a little below the latest Dvorak estimates. An Air Force
plane will be investigating Joaquin in a few hours, and should
provide a better estimate of intensity.

Based on the satellite center fixes, the initial motion continues
to be slowly westward, or 260/04 kt. The forecast track in
this advisory attempts to reconcile large model spread with an
overall shift toward the southwest of the previous track through 72
hours. Joaquin is currently in a relatively weak steering pattern,
but a building shortwave ridge in the northwestern Atlantic should
allow the cyclone to drift west and then west-southwestward. This
pushes the storm in the direction of the Bahamas, but the
deterministic and ensemble model consensus still shows a good
likelihood that Joaquin will stop fairly well short of the Bahamas,
and then begin accelerating to either the north or northeast. The
00Z ECMWF made a closer approach to the Bahamas, but it too turns
the storm sharply and accelerates it back into the Atlantic beyond
72 hours. The official forecast is to the left of the previous
forecast through 72 hours, and significantly slower at 4 and 5
days. It should be repeated that the confidence in the track
forecast is very low.

The vertical shear is predicted by the dynamical models to decrease
in 1 to 2 days. This should allow for additional strengthening,
which is reflected in the official forecast. The NHC wind speed
predictions may be conservative, since some of the guidance suggests
that Joaquin could become a hurricane in a few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 26.5N 70.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 26.4N 71.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 26.3N 72.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 26.2N 73.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 26.1N 73.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 26.0N 74.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 29.0N 73.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 04/1200Z 34.0N 72.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

NNNN

[cycloneye]

Track more NE on days 4-5 but low confidence.

[tolakram]

Weatherbell, for what it's worth,

Joaquin drifts west then north, up to Cat 3 Saturday, landfall outer banks cat 1 or 2. Ida regains TS strength and there is mention that latest euro solution is fujiwara effect between two storms.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Personally, I respectfully disagree. I think it's dangerous to go all in with just a couple of model runs, but we shall see. To go from a couple of swirls to a hurricane interacting with a system just blown apart by shear ... I suppose crazier things have happened in the tropics, always be cautious!

[HurrMark]

Big shift...would still result in flooding rain for the Northeast but likely no direct impact to the US (except maybe the Cape or Maine)...unless it does indeed pull a Sandy-like left hook after day 5.

[invest man]

Looks like NHC is putting a lot of emphasis on the last Euro. What time does the next Euro Run occur? I am in Eastern NC where we have had 5-8" of rain since Friday. IM

[xironman]

Looks like NHC is putting a lot of emphasis on the last Euro. What time does the next Euro Run occur? I am in Eastern NC where we have had 5-8" of rain since Friday. IM

Starts showing up at 2pm EDT on the free sites.

[TheStormExpert]

Latest Model Track still shows a NW turn into the NE U.S. for what it's worth.

[AutoPenalti]

I don't see the sharp turn happening. It just seems hard for that to happen.

[wxman57]

I don't necessarily disagree with Bastardi on this one. The consensus of all the ensembles indicate landfall just north of Hatteras on Sunday. Deterministic runs of the GFS & EC are way different from the ensemble members. Don't trust them.

[Alyono]

pressures are a bit lower based upon recon.

[Alyono]

URNT15 KNHC 291643
AF300 0211A JOAQUIN HDOB 22 20150929
163430 2559N 07041W 8273 01627 9959 +187 +169 099008 018 024 007 00
163500 2557N 07040W 8271 01629 9970 +171 +167 236005 008 023 016 00
163530 2556N 07039W 8268 01632 //// +162 //// 277014 019 024 018 05
163600 2554N 07038W 8285 01619 //// +158 //// 237023 027 018 070 05
163630 2553N 07037W 8280 01630 //// +155 //// 215018 024 050 073 01
163700 2552N 07035W 8258 01653 //// +151 //// 220021 025 047 059 01
163730 2551N 07034W 8270 01646 0004 +147 //// 231022 024 047 058 01
163800 2549N 07033W 8266 01653 0005 +147 //// 238025 028 038 055 01
163830 2548N 07031W 8276 01646 0015 +144 //// 237023 023 044 033 01
163900 2547N 07030W 8272 01651 //// +140 //// 237025 026 041 026 01
163930 2546N 07029W 8274 01652 0020 +143 //// 239027 027 036 028 01
164000 2545N 07027W 8277 01650 0026 +139 //// 238026 027 039 026 01
164030 2543N 07026W 8259 01669 0023 +145 //// 227024 025 046 058 05
164100 2542N 07025W 8284 01646 //// +143 //// 234024 026 035 047 01
164130 2541N 07023W 8253 01679 //// +147 //// 245028 031 037 040 05
164200 2540N 07022W 8281 01653 0029 +140 //// 232029 033 049 073 01
164230 2539N 07021W 8277 01656 0029 +142 //// 223026 030 055 069 01
164300 2538N 07019W 8276 01659 //// +135 //// 220028 031 050 053 05
164330 2536N 07018W 8272 01669 0036 +139 //// 228031 033 043 029 01
164400 2535N 07017W 8278 01664 //// +130 //// 237038 040 044 022 05

[Extratropical94]

First center pass:

[Alyono]

URNT15 KNHC 291654
AF300 0211A JOAQUIN HDOB 23 20150929
164430 2534N 07015W 8266 01677 0046 +134 //// 235040 044 047 024 05
164500 2533N 07014W 8273 01669 0044 +135 //// 217038 042 045 062 01
164530 2532N 07013W 8265 01678 0052 +143 //// 219033 037 048 046 01
164600 2531N 07012W 8274 01673 0052 +141 +141 225032 035 043 045 03
164630 2529N 07010W 8279 01673 0055 +141 +141 230034 036 044 024 03
164700 2528N 07009W 8266 01685 0060 +149 +149 219034 037 049 024 00
164730 2527N 07008W 8274 01684 0060 +148 +148 207040 044 046 031 03
164800 2526N 07007W 8267 01692 0063 +146 +146 209046 048 039 019 00
164830 2525N 07005W 8275 01686 0067 +144 +144 203045 047 042 018 00
164900 2524N 07004W 8268 01695 0069 +145 +145 203046 048 041 019 00
164930 2523N 07003W 8282 01680 0072 +142 +142 203046 049 038 027 00
165000 2522N 07002W 8276 01686 0075 +140 +140 206046 047 038 021 00
165030 2521N 07001W 8274 01690 0081 +134 +134 203049 050 037 021 00
165100 2520N 07000W 8275 01693 0079 +132 +131 201053 055 038 017 00
165130 2519N 06958W 8283 01683 0077 +143 +143 197050 052 040 015 00
165200 2518N 06957W 8266 01704 0075 +146 +146 194052 055 040 016 00
165230 2517N 06956W 8269 01700 0077 +142 +142 193052 054 041 013 03
165300 2516N 06955W 8279 01693 0076 +143 +143 190051 052 041 013 03
165330 2515N 06954W 8269 01703 0074 +146 +145 189052 053 039 008 00
165400 2514N 06953W 8277 01696 0073 +145 +143 181047 052 039 008 00

[Alyono]

URNT15 KNHC 291703
AF300 0211A JOAQUIN HDOB 24 20150929
165430 2513N 06952W 8270 01706 0074 +149 +149 183045 048 040 007 00
165500 2512N 06951W 8275 01703 0084 +141 +141 184049 051 040 008 00
165530 2511N 06950W 8270 01708 0084 +136 +134 184045 046 038 010 00
165600 2510N 06949W 8282 01696 0087 +134 +129 179050 051 038 009 00
165630 2509N 06948W 8269 01707 0086 +136 +130 179050 051 036 009 00
165700 2508N 06947W 8274 01707 0090 +132 +132 184049 050 036 009 03
165730 2507N 06946W 8276 01705 0095 +132 +132 182046 046 034 011 00
165800 2506N 06944W 8273 01713 0097 +131 +131 184044 046 034 012 03
165830 2505N 06943W 8271 01713 0098 +131 +130 191042 044 032 012 03
165900 2504N 06942W 8270 01718 0100 +130 +127 200041 042 031 011 00
165930 2503N 06941W 8268 01718 0096 +137 +126 205046 047 031 011 00
170000 2502N 06940W 8271 01717 0093 +141 +125 203047 048 032 011 00
170030 2501N 06939W 8274 01714 0094 +141 +124 202047 048 030 012 00
170100 2500N 06938W 8273 01715 0089 +146 +130 207047 048 030 012 00
170130 2459N 06936W 8272 01717 0089 +149 +126 205044 047 029 011 00
170200 2458N 06935W 8277 01713 0093 +145 +126 200040 044 028 013 00
170230 2457N 06934W 8272 01717 0094 +143 +128 201035 037 029 013 00
170300 2456N 06933W 8273 01717 0099 +137 +123 200032 033 029 015 00
170330 2455N 06932W 8273 01718 0099 +139 +121 204036 038 029 014 00
170400 2454N 06930W 8273 01720 0097 +141 +135 202037 038 032 013 00

[drezee]

Surface and Standard Isobaric Surfaces


Level

Geo. Height

Air Temp.

Dew Point

Wind Direction

Wind Speed


1004mb (29.65 inHg) Surface (Sea Level) 25.8°C (78.4°F) 24.1°C (75°F) 185° (from the S) 47 knots (54 mph)
1000mb 33m (108 ft) 25.4°C (77.7°F) 23.7°C (75°F) 185° (from the S) 47 knots (54 mph)
925mb 717m (2,352 ft) 21.0°C (69.8°F) 19.8°C (68°F) 195° (from the SSW) 56 knots (64 mph)
850mb 1,448m (4,751 ft) 16.0°C (60.8°F) 15.1°C (59°F) 205° (from the SSW) 51 knots (59 mph

[Extratropical94]