ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#321 Postby windnrain » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:11 pm

.. 939?!?! Wtf?
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#322 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:11 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:I think more importantly..it looks to be a strengthening major coming in



pretty well maintains cat 4 from bahamas to NC/VA
.

That is what is concerning...that strong maintaining or strengthening and not weakening going into that area...only 108 hours out
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Re:

#323 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:13 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Image

Holy S@!%.

That is insane. They need to prepare now.
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#324 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:15 pm

Hate to be the NHC right now. Lots of decisions to make concerning the track.
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Re:

#325 Postby Andrew92 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:16 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Hate to be the NHC right now. Lots of decisions to make concerning the track.


And intensity.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#326 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:16 pm

Has there ever been a strengthening major hurricane make landfall in Virginia?
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#327 Postby emeraldislenc » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:18 pm

This is really getting scary. Not talking bout a week away but days. The next 2 r 3 advisories will be interesting.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#328 Postby hurricanedude » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:19 pm

the great norfolk hurricane in the late 1930s..which formed a huge sand spit known as willoughby spit...home to thousands
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#329 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:19 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:Has there ever been a strengthening major hurricane make landfall in Virginia?

I'm not sure but I would be curious to see the surge potential for a strengthening Cat 4 into the Delmarva
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#330 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:20 pm

Euro run is key, I will be sleeping. If it agrees, then IMO the morning forecast will sound the alarm, otherwise probably wait one more cycle. Very tough call, and again exposes how in 2015 the models are still too unreliable. <- opinion
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#331 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:20 pm

Let's see what the Euro thinks in 1 hour and a half.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#332 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:21 pm

tolakram wrote:Euro run is key, I will be sleeping. If it agrees, then IMO the morning forecast will sound the alarm, otherwise probably wait one more cycle. Very tough call, and again exposes how in 2015 the models are still too unreliable. <- opinion


ill be up.. but I still think they will wait since its more than 4 days.
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#333 Postby hurricanedude » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:21 pm

a cat 4 would produce a 28-32 foot surge in chesapeake bay....according to local surge maps
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#334 Postby Alyono » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:22 pm

UKMET is into Delaware Bay
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Re:

#335 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:22 pm

Alyono wrote:UKMET is into Delaware Bay


intensity?
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Re:

#336 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:23 pm

hurricanedude wrote:a cat 4 would produce a 28-32 foot surge in chesapeake bay....according to local surge maps


Not good :double:
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#337 Postby hurricanedude » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:23 pm

and i sit at 2.2 feet above sea level
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Re: Re:

#338 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:23 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Alyono wrote:UKMET is into Delaware Bay


intensity?


The text just says "intense". We will know the pressure of it in about 20 minutes when it comes out on this site: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072
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Re: Re:

#339 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:25 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
Alyono wrote:UKMET is into Delaware Bay


intensity?


The text just says "intense". We will know the pressure of it in about 20 minutes when it comes out on this site: http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&stn2_type=prog&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&hh=072


thanks. old computer crashed lost all my links... which nearly 20 years of collecting them lol
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Re:

#340 Postby xironman » Tue Sep 29, 2015 11:53 pm

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: It hooks back toward the NC/VA coast


The models are handling the dynamics of the 500mb level much better tonight. Last night they wanted to push stuff to the right, when normally when you have a negatively tilted trough with a big vort things will hook left.

Image
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