Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

12Z GFS seems to drop the storm it had in early runs. Also, hello to everyone! I have been a "reader only" on here for two months, but decided to register and contribute. Been tracking hurricanes since I was I was a child, love the commentary on here. -David

Welcome and enjoy all of what Storm2k has. If you have any question(s),dont hesitate to ask.

[wxman57]

I'm quite disappointed in the 12Z GFS. No major hurricane threatening the SE U.S. at 384 hours on this run!

Clearly, the Caribbean has been quite a hostile place for development this season. Gulf of Mexico, too. Bones is about ready to declare the 2011 season to be over.

[FireRat]

It would be weird as heck if nothing formed despite the La Nina and especially the strong MJO forecast!! Hell, if that panned out, we can probably forget that the La NIna is going to spell warm and dry humdrum winter weather here in Florida!

We'll probably freeze this winter again, just like last!

It'll probably snow at this rate

[wxman57]

Even though the Nino 3.4 region is technically in a La Nina, the cooler SST anomalies are confined to a very narrow area between 120W-170W near the Equator, as can be seen in the first image below (this year's anomaly as of yesterday):



Compare the image above (2011) to last year's La Nina and there's quite a difference. I'm wondering if the much warmer water in Nino 1-2 regions, which is likely responsible for the powerful hurricanes in the East Pac, is also having a negative influence on conditions across the Gulf/Caribbean?

[dwsqos2]

There's nothing interesting on the 12Z Euro; I declare my logic-free hurricane season forecast uncommonly good.

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[hcane27]

It would be weird as heck if nothing formed despite the La Nina and especially the strong MJO forecast!! Hell, if that panned out, we can probably forget that the La NIna is going to spell warm and dry humdrum winter weather here in Florida!

We'll probably freeze this winter again, just like last!

It'll probably snow at this rate

I have come to the conclusions below .....

1. just becasue there is a "la Nina" does not necessarily mean there will be a lot of activity
2. the effect of the "strong MJO" is overdone .... as it pertains to the Atlantic area ... including the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico

I am in the process of looking at the history of the above and will send along when complete .....

[wxman57]

I have come to the conclusions below .....

1. just becasue there is a "la Nina" does not necessarily mean there will be a lot of activity
2. the effect of the "strong MJO" is overdone .... as it pertains to the Atlantic area ... including the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico

I am in the process of looking at the history of the above and will send along when complete .....

Note that the strong MJO remains in the Western Pacific, west of the date line (180 deg). I suggest checking out a website I made about 10 years ago describing the MJO and its impact on the Gulf/Caribbean:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/mjo/

[FireRat]

Yep, that's pretty much the deal. "La Nina" and "MJO" simply imply trends and not necessarily events set in stone. Last year, the "La Nina" in place in December was first thought to bear warm and dry weather to us here in Florida, but then a NAO (Negative Atlantic Oscillation phenomenon) changed all that and we literally froze for weeks on end. I was actually thrilled by the unusual cold as it had been a hellish summer just like this one. If the Iguanas could somehow wear parkas and the fruits better protected in these parts, I would love another cold winter after THIS INFERNAL summer!

Now back on track, the historical favorite week for October storms is 5 days away so it will be interesting to see if, in a few days, the models jump on something forming down there in the mid-range. For now, it's pretty much zilch as Wxman57's been saying.

[hcane27]

So then the real "fly in the ointment" is the ability to accurately forecast the strength and timing of the MJO pulse into the Atlantic area ?? As it appears that most of the impulses do not reach past the eastern Pacific , or if they do the "strength" may well be below that which would significantly enhance tropical cyclone formation.

[wxman57]

So then the real "fly in the ointment" is the ability to accurately forecast the strength and timing of the MJO pulse into the Atlantic area ?? As it appears that most of the impulses do not reach past the eastern Pacific , or if they do the "strength" may well be below that which would significantly enhance tropical cyclone formation.

Predicting the arrival (in East Pac) and strength of the MJO pulse is somewhat difficult. A moderate MJO reaching the East Pac can enhance development in the Gulf and Caribbean about 10-14 days later. And you have to understand that some of those graphics posted that identify rising air associated with an MJO pulse may actually be showing rising air due to other features not MJO-related. That's the case for the current projections, as the MJO is clearly still in the West Pacific and not approaching the East Pacific.

In recent years, most of the MJO pulses have been relatively weak by the time they reach the East Pac.

[HURRICANELONNY]

The ECMWF and NOGAPS models continue to predict that a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean early next week. Some of the spin and moisture for this storm could potentially come from an area of disturbed weather in the Eastern Pacific, (Invest 99E), that is currently just offshore of the Mexico/Guatemala border. Invest 99E is expected to move inland over Central America over the next few days, bringing very heavy rains capable of causing flash flooding and mudslides to Southeast Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador.

Jeff Masters

[blp]

12z Euro has followed the GFS in showing the system getting caught over land. If you take out all the phantom storms at 300+ hours that it has been showing for weeks the GFS has actually been doing OK. To my untrained eye, looking at the models it looks like the EPAC monsoon gyre is too strong to allow development on the W. Carribean side. I think something will form it just won't happen as soon as we thought. Until the EPAC action subsides and the energy moves into the Carribean we will continue to wait for development.

Reading Wxman57's site (http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/mjo/) about MJO states: "What Maloney and Hartmann found was that about 15 days after a MJO reaches the Eastern Pacific, there is typically a sharp rise in tropical cyclone development in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea." which would make sense because most of the upward energy needs time to move from the EPAC to the WCAR. Taking that into consideration it would delay development to sometime toward the end of the week of the 24th. So we may need to be a little more patient. Let's see what happens.

[Ptarmigan]

I was waiting on you to chime in..... you are the stats guy.....I did re-review the past TX hurricanes PDF and you are right. There has been some late season hits so I stand corrected. Should have narrowed it down to Galveston major landfall... odds are way against it yes...but this year you can throw odds out the window. IMO....

You made a post for me. As I mentioned 1886 and 1949 occurred in La Nina. 1886 started Neutral than went to La Nina and it was a very dry year. 1949 was La Nina and went into a prolonged drought of the 1950s. This is based on MEI.

MEI datasets.
1950 to Present
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/table.html

1871 to 2005
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei.e ... e.ext.html

ENSO Region 3.4
http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/cli ... index.html

Japanese Meteorological Agency ENSO
ftp://www.coaps.fsu.edu/pub/JMA_SST_Ind ... y.filter-5

This one goes back to 1871 to 2007. NOAA uses ENSO Region 3.4, but when I compared the two, the values were different. Sometimes way off, but both indicate they were La Nina and El Nino. I don't know why. The same goes with Japanese Meteorological Agency ENSO data.

[ROCK]

the 0Z GFS back on board with a BOC system at 240hr moving up the Texas coast and into SW LA. Very similar to some of the EURO runs we have seen recently. Interesting....stuff...

[ROCK]

NOGAPS also sees it on the yucatan at 180hr.....model support coming on board with something. When all of them are sniffing this then its a good bet.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[alienstorm]

This will be generated from the leftover of TD12 in the Eastern Pacific.

[ROCK]

12z GFS now flopping back to up and out scenario.....the 0z EURO sort of buries it in the yucatan so still nothing of a consensus....12Z EURO out in few...

12Z CMC shows a system moving up and around the yucatan and ends run in the BOC at 144hr.

[wxman57]

It's pretty clear that none of the models has a handle on what's going to happen beyond the next 3-4 days. I don't think anything will develop over the next week.

[Blown Away]

Models not showing much at least over the next week, maybe it's almost time to say we might be seeing the end of the 2011 season, with the exception of some rogue low pressure the spins up in the middle Atlantic and gets a name!

[cycloneye]

The Colorado State University folks (Dr Klotzbach/Dr Gray) forecast an average next two weeks of October ending on the 25th. They forsee the ACE units to be between 5-7 during this two week period. But the models are not too bullish right now for the next seven to ten days.Let's see if that changes in next runs.

http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/In ... 2_2011.pdf