ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Hurricane Alexis]

There seems to be a lot of people getting angry over Erikas' bust on social media. Lots of people bashing mets. I wonder when these same people are going to understand that meteorology is more complicated than it seems.

[floridasun78]

allot here in miami saying cry wolf media hype it too much their say alot people saying their rush store because media hype i think alot wont get ready next time

[xtyphooncyclonex]

So about 170 pages on this puny storm missing US, and only 9 pages on a historic hurricane on the Cape Verde islands?

[Hammy]

So about 170 pages on this puny storm missing US, and only 9 pages on a historic hurricane on the Cape Verde islands?

To be fair with Erika there was a lot of guessing and switching between the models every few hours each time something changed whereas Fred is pretty straight-forward as far as what it's going to do, and those guess and intensity alternating posts probably made up half of them.

[tolakram]

So about 170 pages on this puny storm missing US, and only 9 pages on a historic hurricane on the Cape Verde islands?

Don't do this please. There are perfectly good reasons why this thread is more populated, we've explained this before, and I don't think anyone appreciated the eye roll. There is a big difference between weather enthusiasts and people visiting a thread seeking information about a storm headed their way.

[ronjon]

Starting to look a little interesting in the SE GOM this morning.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=byx&loop=yes

[Frank P]

Starting to look a little interesting in the SE GOM this morning.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0Z&rid=byx&loop=yes

Yep shows up nice ronjon, definite rotation on radar loops, and building convection showing up on sat pixs... looks to be moving north... most interesting...

[Steve]

There seems to be a lot of people getting angry over Erikas' bust on social media. Lots of people bashing mets. I wonder when these same people are going to understand that meteorology is more complicated than it seems.

Babies. I usually avoid personal social media because weather, history, politics or whatever can't usually be summed up in a sentence and stand alone. However, since that's all anyone has time for anymore, bumper sticker ranting and outrage can sometimes be the rule. Tweet, retweet; post, like or share; etc. Not meaning to sound elitist here, but many people are ignorant. Lots of people learned how to turn on computers in the past 15 years. Therefore, there are a lot of more ignorant people online. JMO. Let them whine about the bust. They'll be the first ones whining about the next hit blaming someone else for their own lack of preparation.

[tropicwatch]

I have a tropicwatch facebook page and everyone has been very cordial and curious. So far no rants or raves but every once in awhile I get a goofball posting. They are easy to spot and are blocked pretty quickly.

[ronjon]

Remnant circulation starting to blow up convection in SE GOM.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20100716&endTime=-1&duration=3

[Hammy]

Remnant circulation starting to blow up convection in SE GOM.

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=TPA&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20100716&endTime=-1&duration=3

Broad as that is, its the first time in days that it's been closed. Nice if it would pull some rain north as the trough preceding it was a bit disappointing.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS takes Erika's remants NE out of the Eastern Gulf then ENE off the SE coast looping back a vorticity placing it off the SE US Coast at 144 hours heading west, eventually the low makes landfall near GA at 210 hours.



210 hours:

[Steve]

12Z GFS takes Erika's remants NE out of the Eastern Gulf then ENE off the SE coast looping back a vorticity placing it off the SE US Coast at 144 hours heading west, eventually the low makes landfall near GA at 210 hours.



210 hours:

That's interesting. It's at 850mb too as the 500 appears to go out ENE and sort of dissipates. At 850mb, it rings around a smaller SW Atlantic High and comes back to the GA/SC coast and gets pushed back SW across the SE US and seems to end up around Pensacola before dissipating completely or else moving out ahead of a new trough and ending up in North Alabama by the end of the run. You can follow the vortex, so it would still likely be Erika if this was to verify and get strong enough to be classified anything with a name. FWIW I ran the 850mb over at the NCEP site (NAMER; GFS; 12z)

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... roup=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&ps=

[Aric Dunn]

looks like Erika is trying to make a last minute come back this morning lol

[Sanibel]

Appears to be a twist out there but I don't know if it's Erika related. 2015 isn't developing Gulf systems from lingering convection so far.

[tolakram]

live visible

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-83&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15&mapcolor=gray

[floridasun78]

i see area south cuba too look left over of ERIKA too http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[Aric Dunn]

its for sure the remnants and some clear broad turning. dont think its going to do anything at least not becoming a td .. but it could become a little more organized and enhance the rain even more over florida. Storm motion on from key west radar definitely showing rotation.

[robbielyn]

the air is full of moisture feels like a fine mist. but the clouds look like regular clouds versus td or ts clouds. You are probably right Aric. Just a broad low.

[chaser1]

its for sure the remnants and some clear broad turning. dont think its going to do anything at least not baring a td .. but it could become a little more organized and enhance the rain even more over florida. Storm motion on from key west radar definitely showing rotation.

I'm seeing that too Aric.

Seems to me that one could make a case for a vortex at some level approx. around 26N & 83W, though it itself appears to now be on the southern periphery of a broader low to the north, presently west of the Tampa area. Upper level winds appear a little less strong than yesterday and perhaps are becoming a bit more difluent over east/central Florida.

I don't question that this area includes vorticity from that which wad Erika, but given the slim 24-48 hour window that this area may have to deepen while slowly moving to the north, I doubt that NHC would continue to identify this as Erika, given the contributing genesis that might be attributed to the trough itself. Would be interesting to see how that would play out but I'd guess 48-72 hours would be needed for that to happen.