ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

its for sure the remnants and some clear broad turning. dont think its going to do anything at least not baring a td .. but it could become a little more organized and enhance the rain even more over florida. Storm motion on from key west radar definitely showing rotation.

I'm seeing that too Aric.

Seems to me that one could make a case for a vortex at some level approx. around 26N & 83W, though it itself appears to now be on the southern periphery of a broader low to the north, presently west of the Tampa area. Upper level winds appear a little less strong than yesterday and perhaps are becoming a bit more difluent over east/central Florida.

I don't question that this area includes vorticity from that which wad Erika, but given the slim 24-48 hour window that this area may have to deepen while slowly moving to the north, I doubt that NHC would continue to identify this as Erika, given the contributing genesis that might be attributed to the trough itself. Would be interesting to see how that would play out but I'd guess 48-72 hours would be needed for that to happen.

hard to say what the nhc would do if it did actually organize..

there is a upper high over it right now.. lol

[BobHarlem]

12Z GFS takes Erika's remants NE out of the Eastern Gulf then ENE off the SE coast looping back a vorticity placing it off the SE US Coast at 144 hours heading west, eventually the low makes landfall near GA at 210 hours.


That's interesting. It's at 850mb too as the 500 appears to go out ENE and sort of dissipates. At 850mb, it rings around a smaller SW Atlantic High and comes back to the GA/SC coast and gets pushed back SW across the SE US and seems to end up around Pensacola before dissipating completely or else moving out ahead of a new trough and ending up in North Alabama by the end of the run. You can follow the vortex, so it would still likely be Erika if this was to verify and get strong enough to be classified anything with a name. FWIW I ran the 850mb over at the NCEP site (NAMER; GFS; 12z)

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... roup=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&ps=

12Z Euro suggesting this also.

[chaser1]

Hmmm? Seems that at a minimum, NHC would re-introduce this feature within their T.W.O., even if their view regarding its chances was limited to only a 10% likelihood of developing.

[chaser1]

I just looked at the 12Z EURO data. Other than a slight "blip" showing up on the 500mb forecast Anomaly change, there really wasn't much support from the EURO (at least given the resolution available to me). Perhaps I'll take a quick look at the NGM or RUC for any further hint of near term development.

[gatorcane]

There it is on the Euro now, just off the coast of GA/SC, looks like it gets blocked. GFS is further east and south. 192 hours is still there on the Euro:



192 hours:

[wxman57]

That's not Erika's remnants off the GA coast in the ECMWF. The EC takes what's left of Erika across the SC/NC coasts then north of Bermuda, developing it into a large subtropical storm there. It's the biggest low on the 192hr map above, NE of Bermuda.

[drezee]

That's not Erika's remnants off the GA coast in the ECMWF. The EC takes what's left of Erika across the SC/NC coasts then north of Bermuda, developing it into a large subtropical storm there. It's the biggest low on the 192hr map above, NE of Bermuda.

Very true, that second vort is likely from a front coming off the coast. There is a definite spin in the SE GOM, but also tons of outflow boundaries...

[Aric Dunn]

That's not Erika's remnants off the GA coast in the ECMWF. The EC takes what's left of Erika across the SC/NC coasts then north of Bermuda, developing it into a large subtropical storm there. It's the biggest low on the 192hr map above, NE of Bermuda.

Very true, that second vort is likely from a front coming off the coast. There is a definite spin in the SE GOM, but also tons of outflow boundaries...

yeah there is clearly right now a weak circ visible on sat before the convection built over it. there are also some curved low level cloud line as well now on the west and NW side. whatever it does it does not have much time unless it drifts north instead of NE

[sponger]

The circulation that would not die. This storm endured everything there is, and possibly still a weak circulation. For some reason, I am rooting for it.

[drezee]

Yes, I know it is a 99% probability that it is garbage...but I am bored with El Nino seasons. Yes, the WRF spins it up to a decent TS going N...

[Aric Dunn]

Yes, I know it is a 99% probability that it is garbage...but I am bored with El Nino seasons. Yes, they spin it up to a decent TS going N...

if it drifts north like that then its possible to get something .. not very high..

[NDG]

Definitely a broad circulation still left from Erika but pressures if anything have risen during the past 24hrs.

[drezee]

Definitely a broad circulation still left from Erika but pressures if anything have risen during the past 24hrs.

I care more about relative pressures for this type of spin-up...

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely a broad circulation still left from Erika but pressures if anything have risen during the past 24hrs.

I care more about relative pressures for this type of spin-up...

IF there is any pressure fall happening near that weak circ and convection it would not translate to any reporting station that not right near it. it takes time this thing has only started like 6 to 10 hours ago.

[drezee]

Surely it is broad...but clearly it is there

[Aric Dunn]

this bouy is about 60 to 80 miles from the middle of the turning and that convection..

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42003 nothing yet just normal afternoon pressure falls

[gatorcane]

That's not Erika's remnants off the GA coast in the ECMWF. The EC takes what's left of Erika across the SC/NC coasts then north of Bermuda, developing it into a large subtropical storm there. It's the biggest low on the 192hr map above, NE of Bermuda.

Looping the Penn State 12Z ECMWF, it certainly looks like Erika's remnants currently located in the SE GOM to me off the GA coast I the 12Z run. What am I missing? Link I am using below:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html

[Aric Dunn]

That's not Erika's remnants off the GA coast in the ECMWF. The EC takes what's left of Erika across the SC/NC coasts then north of Bermuda, developing it into a large subtropical storm there. It's the biggest low on the 192hr map above, NE of Bermuda.

Looping the Penn State 12Z ECMWF, it certainly looks like Erika's remants to me off the GA coast I the 12Z run. What am I missing? Link I am using below:

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html

yeah clearly its the remnants.. you can see the sub tropical low come off the coast and head east while erika loops around.

[NDG]

That's not Erika's remnants off the GA coast in the ECMWF. The EC takes what's left of Erika across the SC/NC coasts then north of Bermuda, developing it into a large subtropical storm there. It's the biggest low on the 192hr map above, NE of Bermuda.

Latest 12z Euro clearly shows Erika's vorticity getting stuck off of the Carolinas's/GA coast through the next few days as shown on the image posted by Gatorcane.

[wxman57]

That's not Erika's remnants off the GA coast in the ECMWF. The EC takes what's left of Erika across the SC/NC coasts then north of Bermuda, developing it into a large subtropical storm there. It's the biggest low on the 192hr map above, NE of Bermuda.

Latest 12z Euro clearly shows Erika's vorticity getting stuck off of the Carolinas's/GA coast through the next few days as shown on the image posted by Gatorcane.

I was looking at another feature currently inland across southern GA.