Global model runs discussion

[xironman]

GFS looks like it is gearing up for the season, maybe even some support from the Euro

[cycloneye]

HWRF/GFDL/GFS will be upgraded on May

Let's see if after these upgrades by these models,they perform much better,and we will see if GFS turns into the #1 global model and takes that spot from ECMWF. HWRF and GFDL are not global models,but both of them are very important when there is a system in the tropics to see how they are on intensity and tracks.

Details about upgrade of HWRF

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/index.php?branch=HWRF

Details about upgrade of GFDL

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... 18gfdl.htm

Details about upgrade of GFS

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/os/notification ... hybrid.htm

[Dean4Storms]

00z GFS with Tropical Development in western Carib. at 384hrs. Pattern there fits according to JB.........

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP384.gif

[cycloneye]

Dean4Storms,long range runs change constantly unless there is something that the model latches on for many runs in a row,we can't put the money on a scenario in particular.Here is an example of the changes,as the 5/6/12 12z run is different from the 00z,it has Hurricane Aletta in the EPAC and has a TD in the SW Caribbean.



Uploaded with imageshack.us

[OuterBanker]

Pre season straw grasping

[Dean4Storms]

Oh I know, that far out is a crap shoot, still thought I would mention it here on the Global Model Thread. I noticed the 12z today has it still moving northward toward eastern Cuba.

[xironman]

The GFS continues it's preseason warmup

[crownweather]

Interesting to note that this is no longer a 16 day storm forecast and that the GFS ensemble and to some extent the European model (note the small area of low pressure near Nicaragua at 240 hours) agrees with the operational GFS model. Also, the GFS model starts the development around May 20th, which is 11 days away. So, this may not be a "phantom storm" and may be actually something of note.

[cycloneye]

Rob,the 12z GFS run is the second one that has that same scenario. I dont look at the 06z nor the 18z runs as those are will incomplete data. I would like to see the ECMWF be more bullish and of course,more GFS 00z and 12z runs with less timeframe (in less than the 144 hour area) to see if it continues to show it,and if that occurs, then I may join the development bandwagon.

12z GFS Loop







The three graphics have been uploaded with imageshack.us

[Dean4Storms]

Getting interesting with the semi consistency of the GFS on this. Could be a late May surprise for Flarduh!

[Sambucol]

Getting interesting with the semi consistency of the GFS on this. Could be a late May surprise for Flarduh!

Wouldn't this be early if this verifies?

[boca]

I don't think it will its down to 11 days from 16 which is impressive.When it gets down to 5 days and doesn't keep on pushing the date back,it will get my attention.

[cycloneye]

I don't think it will its down to 11 days from 16 which is impressive.When it gets down to 5 days and doesn't keep on pushing the date back,it will get my attention.

It would be nice to have the ECMWF on board,and if that one joins GFS,then is game on.

[boca]

I don't think it will its down to 11 days from 16 which is impressive.When it gets down to 5 days and doesn't keep on pushing the date back,it will get my attention.

It would be nice to have the ECMWF on board,and if that one joins GFS,then is game on.

I would be nice, theirs one problem I can't stay up to 3am to wait for ECMWF to climb on board especially this early in the year in the land of phantom storms.

[MGC]

The 5/9 1800Z GFS runs spins up a low in the WCarb starting 5/17 or so and eventually moves it across Florida thru the Bahamas. Pressure drops to 999mb just east of FL. Getting to be that time of the year so we shall see.....MGC

[cycloneye]

00z GFS begins to run,but I wont stay up for the ECMWF.

[boca]

If the GFS continues on the 00 run starting on the 17th then I'll pay more attention.Can't wait for the upgrade on May 22nd.

[cycloneye]

Yes,it starts on the 17th. I am going to bed. Is anyone going to post the ECMWF?



Uploaded with imageshack.us

[ROCK]

not staying up for the EURO just yet....seems awful early....this whatever it maybe should start to show up on the long range CMC 240hr pretty soon if its legit....

[Rgv20]

By 240hrs the 0zGFS has a 1002mb Low in the NW Caribbean..