ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

NOAA has a floater back up on the remnants of Erika. Any thoughts on this?

[LarryWx]

^No change in the thoughts I've been stating (see above if interested). The LLC is now barely offshore the northern portion of the GA coast near the far western tip of the convection, due to the expected significant westerly shear, as can be seen on this vis loop:

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis

[cycloneye]

[tropicwatch]

I was curious why they put the floater back up.

[LarryWx]

I don't know. Do they need a specific reason other than seeing a concentrated area of convection even if tropical development isn't occurring or expected?
By the way, recent GFS/Euro runs anticipated these thunderstorms well when looking at QPF that covers the current time. This will be fun to follow despite the low chance for TC development. Like I said, if the shear had not been so high, this would probably have had a much higher chance to become a TC.
I was wondering if the shear, itself, could actually be enhancing the convection? Anyone have an opinion?

[tolakram]

live visible

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=31&lon=-80&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10&mapcolor=gray

[tropicwatch]

Don't know if the high in the gulf will be able to hold on to the remnants of Erika with that frontal low over northern Alabama coming on strong.

[northjaxpro]

Yes, that is a great visible image of the remnant circulation. It is still a rather vigorous circulation. I agree with you LarryWx, this would have probably redeveloped if not for the shear. Still have to watch this vorticity out there, especially this close to home.

[LarryWx]

I was hoping you'd get back into this thread so we could read your latest thoughts. Have you noticed that recent model trends have been further offshore rather than holding it nearly stationary just offshore til Tue? Also, it then looks like the models may be trending it to move northward around Tue toward perhaps NC (which wouldn't surprise me since that is a more common path) instead of the runs from a couple of days ago bringing it westward back into the SE around then, which typically needs a decent strength high to the north directing it westward.

[LarryWx]

Consistent with recent model trends, the 12Z GFS has the LLC going even further offshore and then moving northward to offshore NC and then heading out.

[Sanibel]

Persistent bugger outdid the doubters.

[LarryWx]

Yes, indeed! This reminds me somewhat of the remnants of Fred of 2009 that came all of the way over into the SE US coast seemingly against all odds. That one was more interesting to me and it generated quite a bit of discussion here.

Pretty much according to expectations, the largely naked and heavily sheared LLC looks to be moving slowly ~ESE now and has made it to well out into the open ocean ~50-75 miles SE/ESE of SAV per this:

http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/sat ... &itype=vis

I wonder if it will make it into the next TWO. If so, I'd think that chances for tropical development would be put at either 0% or 10% if they want to play it safe.

[northjaxpro]

Larry, I saw those latest runs you referred to above. I can see this moving about 200 miles or so offshore and possibly move north . Remains to be seen if it can regenerate a few days from now. Shear is just relentless. Remnant circulation now drifting southeastward now, currently about 50-70 miles due east of Brunswick, GA.

[LarryWx]

It didn't get mentioned in the TWO.

Reluctantly (because I know it is very often on its own and wrong with crazy solutions but I also know people will still note it) , I'm posting the 12Z Crazy Uncle (aka CMC) 108 hour map showing a 1000 mb TS hit on Wilmington, NC, Mon. PM but certainly not because I think it has a better chance to verify than the GFS or Euro:

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorate ... est&hh=108

[NDG]

Persistent bugger outdid the doubters.

The "bugger" might be persistent but the shear is just as persistent, back to a naked swirl again, lol.

[wxman57]

Surface winds 5-10 kts in the area. Pressure 1014mb.

[OuterBanker]

Crazy cousin (CMC enough said) has a tropical system hitting Hatteras. Erika is starting to remind me of Dennis the Menace 1999. A storm that just wouldn't go away. At this rate we will still be discussing Erika around Thanksgiving. She is getting like company that just won't leave. Geeze.

[OuterBanker]

In the latest visible I couldn't tell whether the llc finally dissipated or slipped under the convection.

[LarryWx]

In the latest visible I couldn't tell whether the llc finally dissipated or slipped under the convection.

It is still there now about 80-90 miles E of Brunswick as a naked swirl moving ESEward.

Looking at the 12Z Euro, it suggests that convection will redevelop about 75-100+ miles E of N FL close to the center that is still moving ESE starting this evening or later tonight and last into the morning. However, significant shear is also expected to continue. So, even with this, the Euro still shows no tropical development.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro has this moving ESE at an average speed of ~5 knots as ~1013-14 low for the next 60 hours til it gets to ~350 miles E of Melbourne before stopping and beginning to drift northward. Afterward, it gets harder to follow due to looking more diffuse. Needless to say, this looks nothing like the usually wrong Crazy Uncle, which has a TS hitting NC Monday.