EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#341 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 22, 2015 10:44 pm

Image

Looks T8.0 to me, depending on how you handle a OW/WMG eye within CMG.
1 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15980
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#342 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 22, 2015 10:50 pm

Image
1 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15980
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#343 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 22, 2015 10:53 pm

I'm assuming the NHC will do another special advisory as soon as recon samples that center.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4762
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

#344 Postby psyclone » Thu Oct 22, 2015 10:53 pm

this storm does remind me of Wilma near peak intensity. I guess the good news is that it's a pretty small, tightly knotted storm so extreme wind damage should be confined to a fairly narrow swath.. like a giant tornado. the other hope is the system degrades faster than forecast before landfall...but oh my...what a terrifying sight...this has the potential to be an extreme event near the landfall point.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145295
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#345 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 22, 2015 10:55 pm

Plane reaches the Pacific coast and will decend shortly..
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#346 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Oct 22, 2015 10:57 pm

I am beginning to wonder if they can complete this mission with such an intense tropical cyclone. Hopeful the Recon crew can navigate through that turbulence upon their decension into this monster. That turbulence will be unimaginable.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
User avatar
brunota2003
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 9476
Age: 34
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2005 9:56 pm
Location: Stanton, KY...formerly Havelock, NC
Contact:
Contact brunota2003

Re:

#347 Postby brunota2003 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 10:58 pm

brunota2003 wrote:I had a strong RI signal around 0Z (roughly), given the 6-9 hours before the real RI kicks off, that would put the start between 2 am and 5 am EDT. This was a strong signal, I think we could see a rapid run for 120-125 knots.

The posts in this forum are not official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are solely the opinions of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to your local weather service's products.

Well, the NHC was forecasting 100 knots and I went with 120-125 knots...we were both a *little* off!
0 likes   
Just a small town southern boy helping other humans.
Top
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

#348 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 10:59 pm

Just for reference, 00z GFS initialized Patricia at 926mb and dropping
0 likes   
Top
CrazyC83
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 34002
Joined: Tue Mar 07, 2006 11:57 pm
Location: Deep South, for the first time!

#349 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:00 pm

How high will Recon find?

I think the jaws will drop and it will find 170 kt personally.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#350 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:02 pm

:uarrow: That is what I am going with, at least 170-175 kts.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

#351 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:03 pm

I'm gonna be conservative and say 152 knt SFMR and 157 knt FL.
Last edited by Yellow Evan on Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
psyclone
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4762
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:04 pm
Location: palm harbor fl

Re:

#352 Postby psyclone » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:03 pm

northjaxpro wrote:I am beginning to wonder if they can complete this mission with such an intense tropical cyclone. Hopeful the Recon crew can navigate through that turbulence upon their decension into this monster. That turbulence will be unimaginable.


Does turbulence always increase with strength? I'm not sure it's that linear but I don't know. At any rate I'd be surprised if recon couldn't complete their mission.
0 likes   
Top
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#353 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:05 pm

Let's not hype up the windspeed too much. 155kt is a good bet IMO
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15980
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#354 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:08 pm

160kts initially is what I'm betting.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
TheStormExpert

#355 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:08 pm

Patricia is a storm for the record books!
:double:
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 8900
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

#356 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:09 pm

psyclone, I remember Recon had to abort a mission with Felix in 2007 due to extreme turbulence. Aborted missions have not happened too often, but it certainly is a possibility tonight, depending on the severity of the turbulence. I pray that they can through the mission tonight during the peak of this monster cyclone.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145295
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

#357 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:09 pm

155kts - 912 mbs.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
Yellow Evan
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 16143
Age: 27
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
Contact:
Contact Yellow Evan

#358 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:10 pm

Pretty sure Blanca's second recon was aborted.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ntxw
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 22784
Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 6:34 pm
Location: DFW, Texas

#359 Postby Ntxw » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:10 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Patricia is a storm for the record books!
:double:



And an EPAC activity record I believe :lol: . 130+ viewers (clearly for Patricia). At night, on a weekday.
1 likes   
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

  Help support Storm2K!
 Help Support Storm2K
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15980
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

#360 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Oct 22, 2015 11:11 pm

Recon is almost there.
0 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2015”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests