ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tatertawt24]

So should I be looking at the vort observations and not hdob?

[Nimbus]

HWRF runs are really blowing Joaquin up into a major once the shear lets up and the storm is moving over the gulf stream.

Stronger storm may effect the upper air steering environment, and with the models targeting Virginia north for landfall this could get serious.

Still drifting west with some ridging north of it ATM, hope the models settle on a track solution soon.

[emeraldislenc]

Does anyone think they may bump it more west in the 5 pm
advisory? Thoughts??

[CrazyC83]

00
URNT15 KNHC 291813
AF300 0211A JOAQUIN HDOB 31 20150929
180430 2628N 07006W 8272 01687 0055 +151 +129 144046 046 034 001 00
180500 2627N 07008W 8275 01682 0049 +153 +127 147049 052 033 002 03
180530 2626N 07009W 8276 01678 0045 +154 +134 147048 049 035 001 03
180600 2625N 07010W 8272 01679 0043 +155 +130 145050 051 035 001 03
180630 2624N 07011W 8273 01676 0041 +154 +127 141052 052 031 003 03
180700 2623N 07012W 8275 01675 0039 +157 +126 138053 054 040 002 03
180730 2621N 07014W 8271 01675 0034 +157 +127 137052 054 039 002 03
180800 2620N 07015W 8273 01670 0029 +157 +134 138051 052 040 001 00
180830 2619N 07016W 8274 01663 0023 +159 +136 137053 055 040 002 03
180900 2618N 07017W 8275 01657 0014 +165 +135 136054 056 045 002 00
180930 2617N 07019W 8275 01652 0003 +172 +139 135053 054 045 002 03
181000 2616N 07020W 8274 01650 9999 +171 +138 133050 053 048 005 00
181030 2615N 07021W 8270 01650 0006 +158 +139 131052 054 049 007 03
181100 2613N 07023W 8275 01645 9989 +182 +136 132058 061 052 002 03
181130 2612N 07024W 8271 01647 9990 +176 +134 134055 060 051 002 03
181200 2611N 07025W 8277 01637 9986 +176 +137 135050 055 051 002 03
181230 2610N 07026W 8278 01635 9989 +167 +145 136049 051 053 004 03
181300 2609N 07028W 8272 01635 9986 +166 +151 139055 056 047 003 00
181330 2609N 07028W 8272 01635 9977 +171 +156 141044 052 054 004 03
181400 2607N 07030W 8275 01626 9976 +167 +161 145040 042 056 006 00
$$
;

61 kt FL, 56 kt SFMR.

[BobHarlem]

Does anyone think they may bump it more west in the 5 pm
advisory? Thoughts??

Guess for 5PM. May be a bit west, watches probably up for parts of the Bahamas based on the Euro model. But beyond 48 hours I don't even want to guess.

[xironman]

Once the llc got under the clouds it really seems to have got going.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I'm surprised there is not even any watches for the Bahamas since this could be a close call in 48hrs.

[tolakram]

Live loop, speed it up for full effect. Center still under the north/northwest edge of the convection IMO.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

[CrazyC83]

If the SFMR is accurate, the intensity may be 55 kt now.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291823
AF300 0211A JOAQUIN HDOB 32 20150929
181430 2606N 07031W 8271 01626 9970 +165 +162 150040 042 058 011 03
181500 2605N 07033W 8272 01621 9965 +162 +161 151043 046 059 015 03
181530 2604N 07034W 8288 01584 9951 +166 //// 162046 050 059 015 01
181600 2603N 07035W 8266 01596 9936 +178 +178 166042 045 049 065 03
181630 2602N 07037W 8258 01600 9927 +175 +175 148035 044 037 075 03
181700 2601N 07038W 8272 01588 9898 +212 +174 168013 027 025 004 03
181730 2600N 07040W 8275 01588 9905 +207 +173 263007 008 014 002 03
181800 2600N 07041W 8265 01596 9900 +210 +170 332007 009 010 001 03
181830 2601N 07043W 8281 01583 9900 +218 +166 338013 016 005 001 03
181900 2601N 07045W 8265 01600 9906 +215 +161 346020 022 005 001 03
181930 2602N 07047W 8279 01595 9920 +209 +160 350024 025 005 000 03
182000 2600N 07048W 8281 01596 9934 +190 +165 337024 025 005 001 03
182030 2559N 07049W 8272 01611 9935 +197 +164 334024 025 010 001 00
182100 2558N 07051W 8278 01606 9949 +181 +158 322023 025 021 005 00
182130 2557N 07052W 8272 01616 9956 +178 +157 319023 024 016 001 00
182200 2555N 07053W 8276 01617 9960 +176 +152 311020 022 015 000 00
182230 2554N 07054W 8278 01618 9964 +174 +153 301021 021 011 001 00
182300 2553N 07056W 8271 01625 9965 +175 +154 299020 021 017 001 03
182330 2552N 07057W 8276 01623 9970 +173 +156 304022 023 019 002 03
182400 2550N 07058W 8272 01629 9967 +180 +153 307024 024 019 001 03
$$
;

59 kt SFMR (might be questionable). Pressure 990mb.

[tatertawt24]

Pressure is 990 now??

[ScottNAtlanta]

Live loop, speed it up for full effect. Center still under the north/northwest edge of the convection IMO.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

The cirrus clouds look to be expanding outward and not being blown off as well.

[invest man]

If the SFMR is accurate, the intensity may be 55 kt now.

I saw that. What model was depicting this quick of development? IM

[tropicwatch]

Looks like rapid intensification occurring with pressure drop from 1001mb to 990mb in just a few hours.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 291833
AF300 0211A JOAQUIN HDOB 33 20150929
182430 2549N 07059W 8269 01634 9965 +187 +136 304024 025 016 000 03
182500 2548N 07100W 8273 01629 9969 +185 +130 303024 025 013 000 03
182530 2547N 07102W 8269 01639 9970 +185 +134 306025 025 014 001 00
182600 2546N 07103W 8278 01628 9972 +185 +133 307025 026 012 001 03
182630 2544N 07104W 8272 01636 9971 +188 +134 311026 026 015 001 00
182700 2543N 07105W 8270 01638 9972 +188 +145 311028 029 020 001 00
182730 2542N 07107W 8279 01627 9974 +184 +156 307028 029 023 001 00
182800 2541N 07108W 8271 01638 9978 +180 +167 300027 029 024 002 03
182830 2540N 07109W 8275 01637 9993 +162 +161 291026 029 028 006 00
182900 2538N 07110W 8256 01655 9996 +160 +159 300026 032 026 005 03
182930 2537N 07111W 8281 01633 9989 +168 +158 300026 026 024 003 00
183000 2536N 07112W 8273 01642 9988 +175 +143 299026 027 024 001 00
183030 2535N 07114W 8272 01646 9991 +179 +129 299028 028 023 001 03
183100 2534N 07115W 8274 01647 9993 +178 +133 301030 031 022 001 00
183130 2533N 07116W 8269 01652 9993 +175 +139 303032 033 024 001 00
183200 2531N 07117W 8273 01649 9995 +175 +137 305034 035 024 002 03
183230 2530N 07118W 8275 01652 0008 +158 +145 306035 036 024 006 00
183300 2529N 07120W 8275 01652 0010 +157 //// 304033 036 023 002 05
183330 2528N 07121W 8272 01657 0005 +168 +155 303034 035 026 001 00
183400 2527N 07122W 8273 01658 0004 +174 +142 304034 035 027 001 00
$$
;

[Extratropical94]

Dropsonde:

Code: Select all

991mb (Surface)    Unavailable
989mb    115° (from the ESE)    58 knots (67 mph)
980mb    110° (from the ESE)    61 knots (70 mph)
953mb    150° (from the SSE)    62 knots (71 mph)
943mb    150° (from the SSE)    51 knots (59 mph)
927mb    155° (from the SSE)    40 knots (46 mph)
918mb    140° (from the SE)    34 knots (39 mph)
904mb    145° (from the SE)    34 knots (39 mph)
896mb    155° (from the SSE)    41 knots (47 mph)
887mb    155° (from the SSE)    39 knots (45 mph)
877mb    150° (from the SSE)    51 knots (59 mph)
868mb    125° (from the SE)    38 knots (44 mph)
863mb    125° (from the SE)    35 knots (40 mph)
853mb    150° (from the SSE)    44 knots (51 mph)
850mb    150° (from the SSE)    43 knots (49 mph)
826mb    140° (from the SE)    38 knots (44 mph)

[fci]

Tough position for NHC here. I can see they don't want to commit to a recurve or a East coast of U.S. hit, but the clock is ticking and the timeframe is coming in. Some models show a U.S. hit in just 4 days now. They need to commit soon you would think so people can prepare if necessary. The 12Z ECMWF is going to be key to what they do at 5pmEST with the track IMHO.

Perhaps they hold up as the pain of The Erika Saga might still be there. Too soon......

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like rapid intensification occurring with pressure drop from 1001mb to 990mb in just a few hours.

The 1001 mb value was an estimate and most likely too high. I wouldn't call this rapid intensification, but it does appear that Joaquin is intensifying, in the short term at least.

[SouthDadeFish]

If shear relaxes a bit and the centers align, look out:

[tatertawt24]

If shear relaxes a bit and the centers align, look out:

http://i.imgur.com/mc0x4mx.gif

Yeah, that frame just gives that look like it really wants to RI.