ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

[LarryWx]

126 hour 0Z Euro is ~200 miles WSW of the 12Z Euro 138 fwiw. This run misses Bermuda a good bit to the west unlike last two runs. Trend to continue closer to the US on later Euros? Stay tuned.

[xironman]

Looks like it's out to sea at this point. Funny how it was the Euro at first who created the east coast landfall madness and now it shows a fish.

Yup, I don't understand it. I guess the Atlantic ridge weakens enough that it is able to break free of the southern stream feature. It is odd to have such a strong 500mb low at this time of year, maybe that is it.

Should be an interesting discussion. It is not like you can split the difference it is off/on situation.

The big difference is the Euro is way further south than the GFS at 72 so it does not feel the pull to the left.

[TheStormExpert]

Euro 144 hrs.

[Aric Dunn]

Not sure why the euro has had two runs with the trough/ low over the SE being so elongated. when before it was not. onlytime will tell ..

[chaser1]

Under that big 'ol ridge to its north? Me thinks the EURO is too far east on this run. I'm not convinced the storm will make US landfall, but I think the risk will prove closer than what the Euro is depicting.

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: Under that big 'ol ridge to its north? Me thinks the EURO is too far east on this run. I'm not convinced the storm will make US landfall, but I think the risk will prove closer than what the Euro is depicting.

could be that the euro is not keeping it fully tropical and its interacting more with the low/ trough and rotating around each other. ??

[fendie]

Let's not forget that the 00z GFS Ensemble mean shifted east as well.

They are certainly less clustered and shifted east but only 2 of the 20 0z GEFS ensemble members have the system NOT making landfall somewhere on the eastern U.S. Coast from South Carolina to Maine.

[chaser1]

Alright, thats it for this weary storm chaser. I think I'll hit the sack now, and wake up minus about 12-14 millibars!

[chaser1]

:uarrow: Under that big 'ol ridge to its north? Me thinks the EURO is too far east on this run. I'm not convinced the storm will make US landfall, but I think the risk will prove closer than what the Euro is depicting.

could be that the euro is not keeping it fully tropical and its interacting more with the low/ trough and rotating around each other. ??

You could be right Aric, but that just doesnt seem reasonable given the present dynamics. I cant help but feel that the Euro is overly deepening this cut-off low. Secondly, that low is fully cut off from the westerlies and I question why a more common fuji wari northwest bend is not being impacted onto Joiquin?

Anyway... now I'm really outa here

[AJC3]

The biggest differences I continue to see in the Euro vs the other globals are twofold:

1) It nudges Joaquin farther SW during the first couple of days, resulting in a later initial northward motion, and

2) It shows the remnants of Ida (plus whatever junk it's interacting with out there) leaving a larger weakness in the Atlantic ridge near Bermuda, allowing for just enough distance between Joaquin and the cutoff low/neg tilt trough to avoid "capture".

The only bias I have noticed in the ECMWF this year is that it has consistently shown too much retrogression of troughs which have morphed into cutoff lows over the SE US/western Atlantic. Otherwise, I haven't seen anything that sticks out at me.

[AJC3]

If ever there was a case for G4 data/dropsondes adding some much needed value to the model guidance initation and output, this sure looks like it'll be one of them.

[chaser1]

:uarrow: Under that big 'ol ridge to its north? Me thinks the EURO is too far east on this run. I'm not convinced the storm will make US landfall, but I think the risk will prove closer than what the Euro is depicting.

could be that the euro is not keeping it fully tropical and its interacting more with the low/ trough and rotating around each other. ??

You could be right Aric, but that just doesnt seem reasonable given the present dynamics. I cant help but feel that the Euro is overly deepening this cut-off low. Secondly, that low is fully cut off from the westerlies and I question why a more common fuji wari northwest bend is not being impacted onto Joiquin?

Anyway... now I'm really outa here

[Aric Dunn]

The biggest differences I continue to see in the Euro vs the other globals are twofold:

1) It nudges Joaquin farther SW during the first couple of days, resulting in a later initial northward motion, and

2) It shows the remnants of Ida (plus whatever junk it's interacting with out there) leaving a larger weakness in the Atlantic ridge near Bermuda, allowing for just enough distance between Joaquin and the cutoff low/neg tilt trough to avoid "capture".

The only bias I have noticed in the ECMWF this year is that it has consistently shown too much retrogression of troughs which have morphed into cutoff lows over the SE US/western Atlantic. Otherwise, I haven't seen anything that sticks out at me.

interesting. I did notice it does swing the "cut off" low ese while seemingly pushing the hurricane ne. however 2 runs ago it was not doing that. neither are the other models. they keep that feature pretty much in the same area. agreed though euro has a lot more interacting with it.

[Aric Dunn]

yes it is..

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS @ 24hrs

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS @ 48hrs

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS @ 72 hrs:

[xironman]

My guess is it is running about 50 miles or so south and west of the 0z run

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS @ 96hrs

[Kingarabian]

So far the 06z GFS is slower and further south than the 00z GFS.