Global model runs discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Anyone have a link to the 240hr Canadian? All of my links go out only to 144hrs for the 00Z run.

I see NOGAPS has given up on the earlier development (Tuesday) in the central Gulf in favor of a weaker low later in the week, as per the GFS. Euro is still even later with weak low development in the BoC (next weekend). As long as there are thunderstorms in the western Caribbean and Gulf next week, it's an area to keep an eye on. Nothing imminent, though.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewalltropatl.html

[Aric Dunn]

sorry here

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

[NDG]

Anyone have a link to the 240hr Canadian? All of my links go out only to 144hrs for the 00Z run.

I see NOGAPS has given up on the earlier development (Tuesday) in the central Gulf in favor of a weaker low later in the week, as per the GFS. Euro is still even later with weak low development in the BoC (next weekend). As long as there are thunderstorms in the western Caribbean and Gulf next week, it's an area to keep an eye on. Nothing imminent, though.

NOGAPS has been on drungs lately, lol. Is not even worth mentioning, IMO.
It has been making the CMC look good, lol.

Edit: here's a better to the CMC, but it does not show the tropics.

http://meteocentre.com/models/models.ph ... 00&lang=en

[wxman57]

NOGAPS has been on drugs lately, lol. Is not even worth mentioning, IMO.
It has been making the CMC look good, lol.

Edit: here's a better link to the CMC, but it does not show the tropics.

http://meteocentre.com/models/models.ph ... 00&lang=en

Thanks for the link. Yeah, not much of the tropics is covered. I know I've seen a good Canadian model posted in this thread.

I always get concerned if my forecast track is anywhere close to NOGAPS. I try to keep my track at least 160 degrees off the NOGAPS track.

[HurricaneTracker]

The new models are interesting.


Here is what the National Hurricane Center is saying:
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE S
CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 14N80W THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE.
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W THROUGH A
1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N82W INTO THE E PACIFIC
REGION ACROSS S NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W AND IS GENERATING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N E OF 75W TO
INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE SAME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE
SE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS SE OF LINE FROM THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE ABC ISLANDS. WEAK W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE
WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL
DISSIPATE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY FRI. ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND.

[SFLcane]

http://www.weather.com/weather/videos/news-41/top-stories-169/tropics-warming-up-29122

[HurricaneTracker]

I have watched he video SFLCane

Video Summary: Caribbean favorable for development next week. The GOM favorable for development next 2 weeks.

[Aric Dunn]

12z GFS has a closed low in the SW carrib in about 48 hours which moves N to NNW. different from previous runs which held off till almost next week.. I imagine its from the tropical wave that moves into the area.


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[floridasun78]

ok what you all thinking now ? i see their no area storms in carribbean yet

[Aric Dunn]

ok what you all thinking now ? i see their no area storms in carribbean yet

still going to be at least 2 days before we have something to track in the carrib.

[floridasun78]

ok what you all thinking now ? i see their no area storms in carribbean yet

still going to be at least 2 days before we have something to track in the carrib.

by saturday?

[Aric Dunn]

ok what you all thinking now ? i see their no area storms in carribbean yet

still going to be at least 2 days before we have something to track in the carrib.

by saturday?

well when I say track I mean possibly something trying to organize. not a tropical system by then.

[floridasun78]

yes i mean that i dont see ts in area by weekend too it too fast i saying area of stormy weather not ts

[Aric Dunn]

12z GFS is ummm... pointless again juat keeps is stationary SE of texas for over a week not likely clearly does not have a good handle on the situation first 72 hours is reasonable after that not so much. just have to keep waiting.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... tImage=yes

[Dean4Storms]

Anyone have a link to the 240hr Canadian? All of my links go out only to 144hrs for the 00Z run.

I see NOGAPS has given up on the earlier development (Tuesday) in the central Gulf in favor of a weaker low later in the week, as per the GFS. Euro is still even later with weak low development in the BoC (next weekend). As long as there are thunderstorms in the western Caribbean and Gulf next week, it's an area to keep an eye on. Nothing imminent, though.

Maybe this site will help........

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/gre ... odels.html

[Dean4Storms]

And the PSU Site is great.........

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewall.html

[Aric Dunn]

12z nogaps no help. nothing new.


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

12z CMC offers a little more this time. very weak reflection passes through the Yucatan Channel from the western carrib.

need better resolution.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation



shows up a little better on the 850mb vorticity.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Dean4Storms]

12z CMC offers a little more this time. very weak reflection passes through the Yucatan Channel from the western carrib.

need better resolution.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation



shows up a little better on the 850mb vorticity.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Also showing a low off the western tip of Cuba, never closes it off.

[Aric Dunn]

12z CMC offers a little more this time. very weak reflection passes through the Yucatan Channel from the western carrib.

need better resolution.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation



shows up a little better on the 850mb vorticity.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

Also showing a low off the western tip of Cuba, never closes it off.

thats what i was talking about. the Yucatan Channel