WPAC: MEKKHALA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Literally shear hell around this disturbance with no sign of weakening although shear over it is lower...

[euro6208]

Dvorak fix in at 1.0

TPPN10 PGTW 131209

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92W (NE OF PALAU)

B. 13/1132Z

C. 8.98N

D. 141.62E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 47A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. .20 WRAP ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A 1.0. MET IS UNAVAILABLE AND PT YIELDS A 1.0.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/0810Z 8.57N 142.42E SSMS
13/0843Z 8.55N 142.52E SSMS


BERMEA

[euro6208]

01W ONE 150113 0600 8.5N 142.5E WPAC 20 1007

Woohoo after days of speculating, we now have TD 01W!

I'm really excited...Hoping for no damage and casualties of course

[euro6208]

Can't wait to read the prognostic reasoning on this...

[euro6208]

Pope's Visit in Philippines to Coincide With Arrival of Tropical System

Pope Francis will be making a tour across parts of the Philippines from Thursday through Monday, and although his itinerary is already laid out, this storm could force changes to the schedule.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/popes-visit-in-philippines-cou/40523416

[euro6208]

WTPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 8.9N 141.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.9N 141.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 9.8N 139.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 10.6N 136.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 11.1N 135.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 11.3N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 11.1N 129.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 12.0N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 13.4N 123.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 9.1N 141.2E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 222 NM EAST
OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND IMPROVED BANDING ASSOCIATED
WITH A CONCEALED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) SOUTHEAST OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION. A 131015Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THE BULK
OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WEST-NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT WITH
SOME BANDING TO THE EXTREME EAST AND SOUTH WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR SATELLITE LOOP WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND
SPEEDS OF UP TO 35 KNOTS ARE LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHEASTERN SURGE EVENT THROUGHOUT THE
EASTERN PHILIPPINE SEA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 01W IS
LOCATED IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15 TO
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), OFFSET BY GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A WEAK AND ELONGATED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR).
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING AND SETS THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY.
B. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE MID-TERM FORECAST PERIOD AND SLIGHTLY
INTENSIFY. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE GUIDED BY THE ELONGATED
STR, THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTH AND POSSIBLY LIMIT OVERALL INTENSIFICATION. WHILE THE SEA-
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT OVER THE
TRACT IS MODERATE, LEADING TO A WEAK BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 72.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, EXPECT THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE
TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55
KNOTS BY TAU 92. BEYOND THAT, EXPECT THAT LAND INTERACTION WITH
CENTRAL PHILIPPINES WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. AS AN ALTERNATE
SCENARIO, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE SYSTEM MAY NOT INTENSIFY IN THE
LATER PERIODS AS EXPECTED DUE TO THE INCREASED VWS DUE TO THE
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE, WHICH IS FORECAST TO ABATE AND THEN RETURN IN
THE LATER TAUS. WHILE THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THE
OVERALL FORECAST TRACK IS LAID WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, DUE TO THE POSSIBLE ALTERNATE SCENARIO.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 131437
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP012015
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
100 AM CHST WED JAN 14 2015

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE YEAR FORMS IN YAP STATE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF YAP STATE...


SUMMARY OF 0100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.1N 141.2E
ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 120 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 215 MILES EAST OF YAP AND
ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF YAP
STATE...INCLUDING FAIS...ULITHI AND YAP.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FAIS
* ULITHI
* YAP

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W
WILL BE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 141.2 EAST. 01W
IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON
THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF 01W WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO FAIS
AND ULITHI THIS MORNING...AND PASS JUST TO THE NORTH OF YAP THIS
AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...50 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND 01W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY TONIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER FAIS...ULITHI
AND YAP LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY 01W ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
SURF IN YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
ALONG EXPOSED COASTS AND REEFS. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT YAP STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...700 AM CHST.

$$

BIRCHARD

[euro6208]

Interesting that was issued by NWS CPHC in Honolulu instead of NWS GUAM...

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 131552
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
150 AM CHST WED JAN 14 2014

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE YEAR FORMS IN YAP STATE...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF YAP STATE...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON FAIS...ULITHI AND YAP AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS IN YAP
STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FAIS...ULITHI AND YAP
IN YAP STATE.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W
WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 9.1 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 141.2 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS

ABOUT 65 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FAIS
ABOUT 120 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 215 MILES EAST OF YAP AND
ABOUT 380 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE CURRENTLY 30 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
DEVELOPING TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY
AS IT MOVES THROUGH YAP STATE TODAY...BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING
GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF YAP STATE TODAY. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 01W WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO BOTH FAIS
AND ULITHI THIS MORNING...AND TO YAP THIS AFTERNOON.

...FAIS ULITHI AND YAP...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL THROUGH TONIGHT...AS SEAS WILL
BE HAZARDOUS FOR THE OPERATION OF SMALL CRAFT...AND VISIBILITY WILL
BE SEVERELY REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE WHEN HIGH
WINDS ARE OCCURRING...OR DURING TEMPORARY LULLS...AS FLYING DEBRIS
CAN CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
INCREASING NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS TODAY...BECOMING 25 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...REMAINING 25 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THE EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE
NIGHT. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 14 FEET AS 01W MOVES THROUGH YAP
STATE TODAY.

...SURF INFORMATION...
ROUGH SURF WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY...PEAKING AT 12 TO 15 FEET
ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W MOVES THROUGH YAP STATE.

..NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 800 AM CHST...OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$

BIRCHARD

[dexterlabio]

The 12z run of the soon-to-be defunct operational GFS shows that northward turn east of Luzon, different from the previous 3 runs today. It's ECMWF and NAVGEM vs. GFS and CMC with regards to the forecast track...

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
EAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS SLIGHTLY DEEPENED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 131713Z
SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR ANIMATION AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS
BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WIND SPEEDS OF UP TO
35 KNOTS ARE LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH A NORTHEASTERN SURGE EVENT THROUGHOUT THE EASTERN PHILIPPINE
SEA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 01W IS LOCATED IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15 TO 20 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD
01W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLIGHTLY
SHIFT POLEWARD TO REFLECT A WEAKNESS IN THE STR AS A MIGRATORY
TROUGH PASSES OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR IS
EXPECTED TO REORIENT AND EXTEND WESTWARD CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE DRIVEN BY THE
STR, THE AFOREMENTIONED NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM TO
THE SOUTH AND POSSIBLY LIMIT OVERALL INTENSIFICATION. WHILE THE SEA-
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE, THE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG
TRACK IS MODERATE, LEADING TO A WEAK BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION
THROUGH TAU 72. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 01W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY. BY TAU 96, LAND INTERACTION WITH CENTRAL
PHILIPPINES WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DUE TO A 190-NM SPREAD AMONG
MODEL GUIDANCE AT TAU 72, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED TAUS.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Using EURO as it is handling this more better than the others...

Hit over the Visayas...

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 132121 CCA
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W ADVISORY NUMBER 2...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP012015
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
710 AM CHST WED JAN 14 2015

...CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W MARCHING THROUGH YAP
STATE...APPROACHING ULITHI...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.6N 140.2E
ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FAIS ISLAND
ABOUT 40 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 140 MILES EAST OF YAP AND
ABOUT 395 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FAIS
* ULITHI
* YAP

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.2 EAST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF 01W WILL PASS
VERY CLOSE ULITHI THIS MORNING...AND PASS ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE
NORTH OF YAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...50 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND 01W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR ULITHI AND YAP
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED OVER FAIS
ISLAND AS 01W MOVES AWAY.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY 01W ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
SURF IN YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
ALONG EXPOSED COASTS AND REEFS. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT YAP STATE THROUGH
TONIGHT...WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...1100 AM CHST
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM CHST.

$$
R BALLARD

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 132124
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
725 AM CHST WED JAN 14 2014

...CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W MARCHING THROUGH YAP
STATE...APPROACHING ULITHI...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON FAIS...ULITHI AND YAP AND SURROUNDING ISLANDS IN YAP
STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS...ULITHI AND YAP
IN YAP STATE.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.6 DEGREES NORTH...LONGITUDE 140.2
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS

ABOUT 25 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FAIS
ABOUT 40 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 140 MILES EAST OF YAP
ABOUT 395 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT
MOVES THROUGH YAP STATE TODAY...BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF YAP STATE TODAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF 01W WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING AWAY FROM FAIS ISLAND...PASS VERY CLOSE TO ULITHI
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE NORTH OF YAP
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

...FAIS ULITHI AND YAP...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
DO NOT ATTEMPT INTER-ISLAND TRAVEL THROUGH TONIGHT...AS SEAS WILL
BE HAZARDOUS FOR THE OPERATION OF SMALL CRAFT...AND VISIBILITY WILL
BE SEVERELY REDUCED IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE WHEN HIGH
WINDS ARE OCCURRING...OR DURING TEMPORARY LULLS...AS FLYING DEBRIS
CAN CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
FOR YAP AND ULITHI...NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE...
BECOMING 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY
TONIGHT...REMAINING 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH IN THE
EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE IN THE NIGHT. ON FAIS...SOUTH
WINDS 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.
SEAS WILL REACH 12 TO 15 FEET AS 01W MOVES THROUGH YAP STATE TODAY.

...SURF INFORMATION...
ROUGH SURF WILL BUILD THROUGH THE DAY...PEAKING AT 12 TO 15
FEET ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND EAST FACING REEFS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE THREATENING.

...OTHER STORM EFFECTS...
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF TWO TO FOUR INCHES ARE POSSIBLE AS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W MOVES THROUGH YAP STATE.

..NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 1130 AM CHST...OR
SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

$$
R BALLARD

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 JAN 2015 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 9:40:00 N Lon : 139:59:15 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1006.0mb/ 32.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.2 2.1 2.1

Center Temp : -5.2C Cloud Region Temp : -26.2C

Scene Type : CURVED BAND with 0.38 ARC in LT GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.52 ARC in LT GRAY
at Lat: 10:15:36 N Lon: 139:22:48 E

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 12.7 degrees

[euro6208]

Actually the LLC is still exposed and south of the deepest convection not over it...

[euro6208]

Up to 30 knots...

WDPN31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W (ONE) WARNING
NR 03//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 01W (ONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 112 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEPENED CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE NORTHWEST OF A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 140011Z METOP-B
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE MSI AND SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS BASED ON IMPROVED
ORGANIZATION AND AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 01W
IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE (10 TO 20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TD 01W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TD 01W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE WEAKENED STR AS A MIGRATORY TROUGH PASSES OVER
SOUTHERN JAPAN. AFTER TAU 48, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO REBUILD AND
EXTEND WESTWARD CONTINUING TO DOMINATE THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE EVENT WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH AND
POSSIBLY LIMIT OVERALL INTENSIFICATION. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR
THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 01W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON A NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY. BY TAU 96, LAND INTERACTION WITH CENTRAL PHILIPPINES
WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. DUE TO THE DIVERGENCE AMONG MODEL TRACKERS
AT TAU 72, THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL FOR THIS EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 140303
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP012015
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
100 PM CHST WED JAN 14 2015

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W PASSING NORTHEAST OF YAP AND WILL BE
MOVING AWAY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 139.3E
ABOUT 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FAIS ISLAND
ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 410 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FAIS...ULITHI...AND YAP HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 PM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.3 EAST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF 01W WILL PASS ABOUT
80 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WILL
BE MOVING AWAY FROM YAP TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND 01W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY 01W ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN HAZARDOUS
SURF IN YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
ALONG EXPOSED COASTS AND REEFS. PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR
LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM CHST.

$$
R BALLARD

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 140315
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
115 PM CHST WED JAN 14 2014

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W PASSING NORTHEAST OF YAP AND WILL BE
MOVING AWAY TONIGHT...

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS
FOR PEOPLE ON YAP...ULITHI...AND FAIS SURROUNDING ISLANDS IN YAP
STATE.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR FAIS...ULITHI...AND YAP HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 100 AM CHST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 DEGREES NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.3
DEGREES EAST. THIS IS

ABOUT 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FAIS ISLAND
ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF YAP
ABOUT 410 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01W WILL PASS ABOUT 80 MILES
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF YAP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND WILL
BE MOVING AWAY FROM YAP TONIGHT. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND 01W IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM THIS EVENING AS IT IS MOVING AWAY.

...FAIS ULITHI AND YAP...
.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT UNTIL SEAS SUBSIDE. INEXPERIENCED
SWIMMERS AND SURFERS SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE WATER.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
FOR YAP...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
IN HEAVIER SHOWERS...WILL SHIFT TO WEST BY THIS EVENING...AND TO THE
SOUTH LATER TONIGHT. ON FAIS AND ULITHI...SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FEET
WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY AS
01W SLOWLY MOVES AWAY.

...SURF INFORMATION...
ROUGH SURF OF 12 TO 15 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EXPOSED NORTH AND EAST
FACING REEFS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIFE
THREATENING.

..NEXT UPDATE...
THIS IS THE LAST LOCAL STATEMENT ON THIS EVENT.

$$
R BALLARD