SPAC: PAM - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

00z ECMWF was stronger with MSLP down to 920 mbs.

[euro6208]

Still a category 5 but nowhere near GFS's solution...

GFS is a tad overdone and we should have a tropical cyclone by this time and in 13 hours, a category 1 cyclone...(see my post above this post)

I'd stick with EURO as they have the best handle on this...

I'm going to be the next lottery millionaire if you all believe GFS's

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I am thinking of a sub-900 mbar super typhoon from this, yet not as deep as what the GFS is showing.

[cycloneye]

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #6
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
0:00 AM FST March 9 2015
=============================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 11F (999 hPa) located at 7.9S 169.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots. The depression is reported as moving west northwest at 4 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Organization remains same in the past 24 hours, convection remains persistent around low level circulation center. System lies under an upper ridge in a low sheared environment. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C

Dvorak analysis based on 0.2 wrap with white band yields DT=2.0, MET and PAT agrees.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Global model have picked the system and move it southwards with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 8.4S 169.5E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 8.9S 169.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 9.9S 170.3E - 60 knots (CAT 2)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Some humor

Cyclone Pam in a few days

[1900hurricane]

1354Z AMSR2 pass showed a closed circulation beneath 93P's central convective ball. In my opinion (take it for what it is), it is time for an upgrade.

[cycloneye]

Agree with an upgrade.Those tops are very cold and microwave shows the organization.

[cycloneye]

Upgrade should come very soon.

93P INVEST 150308 1800 7.2S 168.4E SHEM 30 997

[jaguarjace]

RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACK MAP
Tropical Low
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 6 issued 1910 UTC Sunday 8 March 2015



TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Mar 08/1939 UTC 2015 UTC.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F CENTRE 999HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 7.9S 168.5E AT
081800 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR GMS EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 2 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 25
KNOTS.

ORGANISATION HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION
REMAINS PESISTENT AROUND SUPPOSED LLCC. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER
RIDGE IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.2 WRAP WITH WHITE BAND YEILDS DT=2.0, MET
AND PAT AGREES. THUS YIELDING T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24HRS.

GLOBAL MODEL HAVE PICKED THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 090600 UTC 8.5S 168.6E MOV S AT 03KT WITH 35 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 091800 UTC 9.0S 168.7E MOV S AT 03KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 100600 UTC 9.6S 169.0E MOV SSE AT 03KT WITH 50 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 101800 UTC 10.2S 169.2E MOV SSE AT 03KT WITH 60 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 090200 UTC.

[Yellow Evan]

Agreed with FMS that this is a TD, but it might already be a Cat 1. You could even make a guess for T3.0 if you use a CDO pattern.

[cycloneye]

Nice saved loop showing the future cyclone how is slowly organizing.Is large and that is why is not organizing quicker.

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued.

WTPS21 PGTW 082300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.6S 168.9E TO 12.9S 171.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 082100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.7S 169.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.3S
169.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.7S 169.4E, APPROXIMATELY 770 NM
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED SIGNATURE WITH DEEPENED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOWLY-CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A 082017Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE BULK OF
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE BROADLY WRAPPING
INTO THE LLCC. A 081857Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWS A 25 TO 30 KNOT
CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS WELL NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY GOOD
OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE
AREA ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND
IMPROVED ORGANIZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
092300Z.//
NNNN

[CrazyC83]

That 859mb model...imagine if the GFS forecasted that over a major US city?

[cycloneye]

TPPS10 PGTW 082114

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93P (NW OF FIJI)

B. 08/2032Z

C. 8.00S

D. 169.00E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO . CNVTN WRAPS .40 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING DT
2.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
08/1706Z 7.80S 169.15E SSMS
08/2017Z 8.00S 169.00E SSMS


DARLOW

[Ptarmigan]

That 859mb model...imagine if the GFS forecasted that over a major US city?

Especially over a city like Houston, Miami, New Orleans, Tampa, or New York.

[euro6208]

Lowest i see on GFS's latest run is just 917mb after days of sub 900 runs

[cycloneye]

93P INVEST 150309 0000 8.3S 169.6E SHEM 30 1000

[cycloneye]

Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #8
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11F
12:00 PM FST March 9 2015
=============================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 11F (997 hPa) located at 8.2S 169.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots. The depression is reported as moving south at 2 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS visible imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Expect clockwise winds up to 35 knots within 60 to 180 nautical miles of center in the sectors from west through north to east.

Organization has slightly improved in the past 24 hours. Convection remains persistent around supposed low level circulation center. System lies under an upper ridge in a low sheared environment. Sea surface temperatures are around 30C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.4 wrap with white band yields DT=2.5, MET and PAT agrees.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Global model have picked the system and move it southwards with further intensification.

Forecast and Intensity
==================
12 HRS 8.8S 169.4E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 9.3S 169.6E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS 10.6S 170.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3)

[euro6208]

Upgraded...First warning out soon...

17P SEVENTEEN 150309 0600 8.5S 169.8E SHEM 35 996

[jaguarjace]

WTPS31 PGTW 090900
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 8.5S 169.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 8.5S 169.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 9.1S 170.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 9.9S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 10.9S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 11.8S 170.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 14.4S 171.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 18.7S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 25.0S 177.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 8.7S 169.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760 NM
NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092100Z AND 100900Z.
//
BT
#0001
NNNN