ATL: BILL - Post-Tropical

[tropicwatch]

If a closed low forms east and north of model tracks, that should be good news for Texas. I think late tonight or tomorrow will be most telling.

[drezee]

System has measured TS force 1-min sustained winds 2 of last 5 hours at buoy 42056. There is definitely low pressure in order to create that gradient. Another thing, the models underestimated rainfall prior to Allison, Danny, and Alberto...

[tatertawt24]

Wait, what characteristics does a storm need to be upgraded to a tropical depression/storm? The one minute sustained TS-force winds don't warrant an upgrade?

[drezee]

The trough is clearly evident and the visible seems to see a low forming along it around 20/89.....upper level winds are a bear right now though

[drezee]

Wait, what characteristics does a storm need to be upgraded to a tropical depression/storm? The one minute sustained TS-force winds don't warrant an upgrade?

At this point it just needs a closed LLC....all other parameters met

[floridasun78]

do we data from RapidScat to show how wind are in gulf and nw Caribbean sea with 91l

[latitude_20]

Good friend of mine who lives just south of Akumal, Mexico reports 7" of rain and moderate wind so far.

[1900hurricane]

Recon is slated to go in around 18Z tomorrow.

[MGC]

Look like a low over the Yucatan to me. Monday will be interesting. Dry air and UL winds should keep it in check though.....MGC

[psyclone]

well this has escalated quickly. the power of low expectations at work. as we all know, any tropical system, and even a non designated disturbance, has the potential to generate torrential rain and extreme flooding. I think the models miss such events because there is a short term, local feature that focuses the rain over a particular location and those things are just not predictable well in advance. it's always a now casting thing but the foundation for such an event is tropical moisture and, ideally, an already wet surface/ full lakes/streams/rivers. In my opinion there's potential that warrants vigilance.

[wicked_wx_watcher]

It appears that Carlos has taken a bit of an north-northeastern track. What impact, if any, could that have on 91L and SE Texas?

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 13 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure located over the Yucatan Peninsula is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms and winds to
near gale force over portions of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and
southeastern Gulf of Mexico as it interacts with an upper-level
trough. Environmental conditions should support some development of
this system after it moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
Sunday and across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico through Tuesday.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible over portions of
the Yucatan Peninsula through Sunday. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system
Sunday afternoon, if necessary. Additional information on this
system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

High Seas Forecasts can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and
WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

Forecaster Brennan

[LaBreeze]

If a closed low forms east and north of model tracks, that should be good news for Texas. I think late tonight or tomorrow will be most telling.

Would this be bad news for anyone else?

[Blinhart]

If any of South Louisiana or South Texas gets much more rain from this, in the next week, we might be setting all time records for the month of June also like we did in May. I know at my house in the last month and half we have gotten over 2 feet of rain.

[tropicwatch]

If a closed low forms east and north of model tracks, that should be good news for Texas. I think late tonight or tomorrow will be most telling.

Would this be bad news for anyone else?

I am not sure if anyone along the Gulf Coast needs that much rain at one time but Texas I think would be worse off.

[LaBreeze]

If a closed low forms east and north of model tracks, that should be good news for Texas. I think late tonight or tomorrow will be most telling.

Would this be bad news for anyone else?

I am not sure if anyone along the Gulf Coast needs that much rain at one time but Texas I think would be worse off.

Also to be considered is all of the rain that fell in Texas is now flooding many areas along the Red River in LA.

[cycloneye]

It appears that Carlos has taken a bit of an north-northeastern track. What impact, if any, could that have on 91L and SE Texas?

I mentioned this earlier.

Those in Texas apart from what moisture 91L sends have to watch the Carlos angle to see if it makes landfall on the Mexican coast near Puerto Vallarta because the moisture would go to that state. 1-2 moisture combo possible.

[wicked_wx_watcher]

It appears that Carlos has taken a bit of an north-northeastern track. What impact, if any, could that have on 91L and SE Texas?

I mentioned this earlier.

Those in Texas apart from what moisture 91L sends have to watch the Carlos angle to see if it makes landfall on the Mexican coast near Puerto Vallarta because the moisture would go to that state. 1-2 moisture combo possible.

Thanks Cycloneye! I'm sorry I missed your earlier post. We've had so much rain here in SE Houston, I'm worried about this system (or combo of the two) becoming a sequel of Allison.

[CrazyC83]

If a RapidScat pass finds a closed low now, would watches or warnings be needed right now?

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 91, 2015061400, , BEST, 0, 196N, 890W, 30, 1008, LO