WPAC: CHAN-HOM - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

CMC agrees with GFS on a recurve east of the Marianas and Japan

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.2N 160.8E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 160.0E, APPROXIMATELY 145 NM NORTHEAST OF
POHNPEI, FSM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF SHALLOW CURVED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 281102Z
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS AN ELONGATED AND POORLY DEFINED LLCC WITH
15 KNOT WINDS THAT IS ENHANCED BY A 20 TO 25 KNOT WESTERLY SURGE TO
THE SOUTH. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT
DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

Well according to the latest model run, it seems like three circulations will be fighting to become the dominant system thus development will be slow at first...It has the dominant system developing further east...

[euro6208]

Remains MEDIUM

THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.5N
160.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 160.3E, APPROXIMATELY 270 NM NORTH-
NORHEAST OF POHNPEI, FSM. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF SHALLOW
AND FRAGMENTED CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (5-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND EXCELLENT DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.

[euro6208]

EURO develops this and swallows up 94W and hits Guam as a Typhoon and peaks at 956 mb and makes landfall over southern Japan...

GFS agrees as well, it eats up whatever is left of 94W then pummels it through the Marianas. More southerly north of Saipan at 980mb. It peaks it at 890mb south of Okinawa, slowly weakens it, and makes a monstrous landfall south of Shanghai...

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS shows an 883MB+ super typhoon into China

[cycloneye]

Closeup.

[wxman57]

Both the 12Z Euro & GFS have a sub-900mb typhoon heading north of Taiwan in 10 days. They're very close together at day 10. First time there's been much agreement between the two. I still wouldn't have much confidence in the 10-day track, though.

[euro6208]

TXPQ24 KNES 291512
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)

B. 29/1432Z

C. 9.1N

D. 161.1E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...DT OF 1.0 BASED ON GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING. MET IS 1.0
BASED ON DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PT IS 1.0. FT IS BASED
ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...LIDDICK

[gatorcane]

Both the 12Z Euro & GFS have a sub-900mb typhoon heading north of Taiwan in 10 days. They're very close together at day 10. First time there's been much agreement between the two. I still wouldn't have much confidence in the 10-day track, though.

Yep more ridging to the north of the system on the latest ECMWF run shifting more in line with the GFS which allows the system to get far west an impact China.

Certainly not good news for those in China and the islands that could be in the path of this potential super typhoon.

[cycloneye]

TCFA issued.

WTPN21 PGTW 292230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 250 NM RADIUS OF 9.4N 160.4E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 191800Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 161.0E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 8.9N
160.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.5N 161.0E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM SOUTH
OF UJELANG. THE APPARENT FLARING CONVECTION HAS REMAINED PERSISTENT
IN THE IR LOOP OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM. A 291941Z SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS
FORMATIVE BANDING FEATURES WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVE IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT WHILE THE SYSTEM
HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW DUE TO ITS LOCATION SOUTH OF A LARGE TUTT
CELL, THERE IS STILL MODERATE VWS AFFECTING THIS SYSTEM, FORCING THE
SYSTEM TO REFRAIN FROM BEING VERTICALLY STACKED. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36
HOURS. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
302230Z.//
NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF has 94W absorbing 95W while the GFS shows the opposite.

CMC keeps them separate.

[Yellow Evan]

It appears however that UKMET, JMA, and CMC all keep them separate.

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to TD.

TD
Issued at 01:20 UTC, 30 June 2015
<Analyses at 30/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N9°30'(9.5°)
E160°35'(160.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 1004hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 01/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N9°55'(9.9°)
E159°50'(159.8°)
Direction and speed of movement Almost stationary
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 18m/s(35kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25m/s(50kt)
Radius of probability circle 220km(120NM)

[Yellow Evan]

29/2032 UTC 8.5N 161.1E T1.5/1.5 95W -- West Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

WP, 95, 2015063006, , BEST, 0, 98N, 1603E, 20, 1005, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 220, 50, 0, 0, W, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,

If you ask me, this is a 35 knot TS per ASCAT. I'm sorry.

[euro6208]

TPPN11 PGTW 300909

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 95W (NE OF POHNPEI)

B. 30/0832Z

C. 10.36N

D. 159.62E

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAP OF .30 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. PT AGREES. MET YIELDS A 1.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
30/0316Z 9.35N 160.55E MMHS
30/0700Z 9.95N 159.87E WIND


UEHARA

[euro6208]

Obs from Pohnpei showing sustained winds of 22 mph gusting to 35 mph 1006.7 mb...

[euro6208]

The title should be 95W Tropical Depression...

JTWC hasn't upgraded this to 09W yet...

[euro6208]

JMA has a strengthening typhoon headed towards the Northern Marianas...

NAVGEM takes Chan-Hom east of the Northern Marianas and strengthening...

CMC has this swallowing up 94W and takes it to the Northern Marianas

EURO takes this between Guam and Saipan...