WPAC: HALOLA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

How much of a threat could this be to the WPAC?

Could be a typhoon IMO (what the JMA/JTWC will do with it is for another day) maybe a strong one if we're super duper lucky.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012015
1100 AM HST SAT JUL 11 2015

HALOLA CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN WITH THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 2.5 FROM SAB TO 3.0 FROM
BOTH PHFO AND JTWC. THE LLCC WAS A BIT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE INITIALLY
BUT A RECENT SSMIS PASS ALONG WITH A DISTINCT BANDING FEATURE
REVEALING A WARM SPOT HAS HELPED IN PLACING THE CENTER FARTHER
SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT.

HALOLA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD TODAY SOUTH OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...THEN GRADUALLY TAKE A MORE WEST NORTHWESTERLY
TRACK THEREAFTER AS THE SYSTEM ENCOUNTERS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE.
THIS CLOSELY ALIGNS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THOUGH IT
HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT AND LIES BETWEEN THE TVCN CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE AND THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH KEEPS THE TRACK FARTHER
SOUTH. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH ENOUGH
ALONG THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK. SHEAR VALUES REMAIN VERY LOW AS
INDICATED BY UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. WITH CONTINUED LOW SHEAR
VALUES AND WARM SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HALOLA IS FORECAST TO
REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH JUST WEST OF THE DATELINE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS.
THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH IVCN CONSENSUS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. SHIPS
GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW WEAKENING BEYOND 72 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING
SHEAR AND A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL
STORM HALOLA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 10.6N 176.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 10.9N 177.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 11.5N 179.9E 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 12.1N 177.6E 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 12.8N 175.3E 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 14.5N 170.6E 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 16.3N 166.1E 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 18.1N 161.6E 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012015
500 PM HST SAT JUL 11 2015

LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR HALOLA RANGE
FROM 2.5 FROM SAB TO 3.0 FROM BOTH PHFO AND JTWC. THUS WE WILL KEEP
THE INTENSITY OF HALOLA AT 45 KT FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. THE
LLCC WAS A BIT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.

HALOLA APPEARS TO HAVE MADE THE EXPECTED TURN TO THE RIGHT AND IS
NOW MOVING SLIGHTLY NORTH OF DUE WEST. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HALOLA
REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A SUB0TROPICAL RIDGE. THIS
WEST-NORTHWEST FORECAST CLOSELY ALIGNS WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK AS WELL AS WITH THE HWRF MODEL. THIS TRACK ALSO PLACES IT
BETWEEN THE TVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AND THE CANADIAN MODEL WHICH
KEEPS THE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE
FORWARD SPEED OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH DAY 5.

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY HIGH ALONG
THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK. SHEAR VALUES REMAIN LOW AT THE PRESENT
TIME AS INDICATED BY UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. WITH CONTINUED LOW
SHEAR VALUES AND WARM SEAS SURFACE TEMPERATURES...HALOLA IS FORECAST
TO REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH JUST WEST OF THE DATELINE SUNDAY NIGHT OR
MONDAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH IVCN CONSENSUS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
SHIPS GUIDANCE.

INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM HALOLA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 11.0N 177.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 11.4N 178.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 12.1N 178.9E 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 12.8N 176.6E 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 13.6N 174.2E 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 15.2N 169.7E 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 16.9N 165.1E 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 18.6N 160.6E 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Yellow Evan]

CP, 01, 2015071206, , BEST, 0, 113N, 1776W, 50, 999, TS, 34, NEQ, 60, 30, 30, 50, 1010, 250, 30, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, HALOLA, D,

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HALOLA CP012015 07/12/15 06 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 56 59 63 69 70 68 67 65 67 68 69
V (KT) LAND 50 53 56 59 63 69 70 68 67 65 67 68 69
V (KT) LGE mod 50 53 55 57 60 65 69 71 72 71 72 74 77
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 11 13 15 10 9 4 8 5 8 3 4 6
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 0 0 -1 4 5 3 -1 3 1 0
SHEAR DIR 328 333 339 354 10 316 266 264 211 260 204 292 351
SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.8
POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 148 148 146 147 147 148 148 150 151 153
200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -53.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -51.8 -51.2
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 10 9 9
700-500 MB RH 60 61 64 65 64 63 63 66 65 63 61 60 63
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 17 16 15 16 15 16 16 18
850 MB ENV VOR 92 90 96 105 107 87 80 64 71 54 38 17 12
200 MB DIV 43 36 25 47 65 52 56 35 31 -8 -25 -66 -90
700-850 TADV 1 1 -1 -4 -1 3 2 0 3 4 0 2 1
LAND (KM) 2237 2320 2407 4007 3920 3750 3597 3470 3350 3257 3064 2826 2614
LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.7 12.0 12.4 12.7 13.4 14.3 15.1 15.8 16.7 17.6 18.4 19.2
LONG(DEG W) 177.6 178.8 179.9 181.0 182.2 184.5 186.9 189.1 191.3 193.6 196.0 198.3 200.3
STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 12 12 12 12 11 12 12 12 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 36 47 66 69 69 70 71 73 71 76 80 77 75

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012015
1100 PM HST SAT JUL 11 2015

DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE CENTER OF HALOLA DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/
REMAINS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT A FEW RECENT MICROWAVE
PASSES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS PROBABLY LOCATED ON THE NW SIDE
OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGED
FROM 3.0 TO 3.5...WHILE THE UW-CIMSS ADT HAS INCREASED TO NEAR 4.0
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. BASED ON THE IMPROVED SATELLITE
APPEARANCE AND PERSISTENCE OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 50 KT.

INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 300/10. THIS GENERAL
MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IS FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD...AS HALOLA TRACKS TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
CYCLES...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT
AS WELL. THIS TRACK IS IN BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND THE TVCN
CONSENSUS...BUT IS NOT AS FAR TO THE NORTH AS THE LATEST ECMWF AND
GFS MODELS. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE SUITE REMAINS REASONABLY
WELL-CLUSTERED ABOUT THE EXPECTED WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28C OR HIGHER LIE ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND CURRENT
VERTICAL SHEAR VALUES REMAIN VERY LOW AS DIAGNOSED BY UW-CIMSS AND
SHIPS GUIDANCE. SHIPS...LGEM AND IVCN CONSENSUS ALL BRING THE
CYCLONE TO TYPHOON STRENGTH WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS...SOON
AFTER IT CROSSES THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE. HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW
THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER LGEM INTENSIFICATION CURVE FOR NOW...IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. AT TAU 48 AND BEYOND...MOST
OF THE GUIDANCE LEVELS OFF INTENSITY AROUND 70 KT...POSSIBLY DUE
TO SOME WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE PRESENT JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK.

INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF TROPICAL STORM HALOLA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 11.5N 178.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 12.2N 179.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 13.0N 178.1E 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 13.8N 175.9E 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 14.6N 173.7E 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 16.3N 169.4E 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 18.5N 165.5E 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 20.5N 161.0E 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON/HOUSTON

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012015
500 AM HST SUN JUL 12 2015

INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATIONS REVEAL LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL
STRUCTURE OF HALOLA DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ REMAINS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...
BUT SEVERAL OVERNIGHT MICROWAVE PASSES AND AN ASCAT PASS INDICATE
THAT THE CENTER IS MOST LIKELY STILL LOCATED ON THE NORTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES CAME
IN AT 45 KT ACROSS THE BOARD...WHILE THE UW-CIMSS ADT HAS DROPPED
BACK SLIGHTLY DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. SOME OF THE RECENT
MICROWAVE IMAGES DID DEPICT DECENT BANDING STRUCTURES SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE APPARENT CENTER...AND HAVE HELD THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

INITIAL MOTION IS 295/11 KT. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD...AS HALOLA TRACKS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE IS A BIT MORE MODEL SPREAD
THIS CYCLE...WITH THE ECMWF/GFDL TAKING THE CYCLONE JUST NORTH OF
WAKE ISLAND IN ABOUT 96 HOURS...WHILE THE HWRF IS WELL TO THE
SOUTH...AND THE GFS REMAINS IN BETWEEN...VERY CLOSE TO THE
TVCN CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK. THE NEW FORECAST
TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH SOME VERY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE AFTER 72 HOURS...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
TVCN AND THE GFS.

WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 28C OR HIGHER LIE ALONG THE
FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENT VERTICAL
SHEAR MAGNITUDES AS DIAGNOSED BY UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE
REMAIN LOW AT 10 KT OR LESS...BUT THE SHEAR VECTOR IS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS NORTHWEST SHEAR APPEARS TO BE HAVING A NEGATIVE
IMPACT ON THE CYCLONE AT PRESENT...AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AT
SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY LOWER MAGNITUDES THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE ARE NOT AS AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING
THE CYCLONE AS THEY WERE PREVIOUSLY...WHILE THE HWRF/GFDL AND ICON
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW MORE SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.
GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE APPEARANCE...HAVE OPTED TO FOLLOW
THE SLOWER LGEM INTENSIFICATION CURVE FOR NOW...IN CLOSE AGREEMENT
WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. HALOLA IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A
TYPHOON IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...AFTER IT CROSSES THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE. AT TAU 48 AND BEYOND...MOST OF THE GUIDANCE LEVELS OFF
INTENSITY AROUND 70 KT...LIKELY DUE TO SOME WESTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BE PRESENT ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST
TRACK.

INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...HALOLA IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL DATELINE INTO THE WESTERN PACIFIC LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 11.9N 179.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 12.5N 179.2E 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 13.4N 177.1E 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 14.2N 174.9E 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 15.0N 172.7E 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 17.0N 168.7E 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 19.0N 164.5E 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 20.5N 160.5E 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON/HOUSTON

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012015
1100 AM HST SUN JUL 12 2015

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN PERSISTENT TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE LLCC...WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES COMING IN AT 3.0
FROM JTWC AND SAB AND 3.5 AT HFO. CIMSS SATCON SUGGESTED MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 55 KT...AND AN AVERAGE OF THE FIXES AND SATCON
YIELDS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KT. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT
EXTRAPOLATION BETWEEN A BRIEF EYE-LIKE STRUCTURE IN INFRARED IMAGERY
BETWEEN 1230 AND 1500 UTC AND A 1827 UTC SSMIS PASS WAS RELIED UPON
TO ESTIMATE THE POSITION OF THE DIFFICULT TO LOCATE LLCC.

ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL POSITION WAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH DUE TO
DIFFICULTY LOCATING THE LLCC...INITIAL MOTION IS NEARLY UNCHANGED AT
300/11 KT. WHILE RATHER STRONG RIDGING IN THE LOWER LEVELS REMAINS
FIRMLY IN PLACE NEAR 30N...THE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS BEING
CAUSED BY A BREAK IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE INDUCED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW ROUGHLY 900 MILES TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. HALOLA WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS DEEP RIDGING
STRENGTHENS TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE TRACK FORECAST
RUNS NEARLY DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...FOLLOWING
CLOSELY TO THE CONSENSUS.

SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST. HALOLA WILL REMAIN OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 83 F WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF
AROUND 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH AT LEAST DAY THREE. DURING THIS
TIME...THE MAIN IMPEDIMENT TO INTENSIFICATION WILL LIKELY BE A
DISRUPTION TO THE OUTFLOW IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST QUADRANTS AS
HALOLA SHOULD REMAIN IN OR NEAR THE BREAK IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT HALOLA WILL INTENSIFY...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR ICON AND DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE...WHICH CONTAINS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SPREAD. BASED ON
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...HALOLA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TYPHOON
TOMORROW.

INTERESTS ON WAKE ISLAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF TROPICAL STORM HALOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. THE NEXT BULLETIN WILL BE ISSUED BY RSMC
TOKYO JAPAN. FOR U.S. INTERESTS...SEE THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED
BY THE U.S. NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN GUAM...AND DEPARTMENT OF
DEFENSE WARNINGS ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER IN
HONOLULU HAWAII.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 12.8N 179.9E 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 13.5N 178.3E 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 14.4N 176.3E 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 15.2N 174.4E 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 16.1N 172.3E 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 17.6N 168.0E 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 18.7N 164.0E 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 19.8N 159.5E 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
FORECASTER WROE

[cycloneye]

Has crossed the dateline and now JMA start warnings.

STS 1512 (HALOLA)
Issued at 01:20 UTC, 13 July 2015
<Analyses at 13/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°00'(13.0°)
E179°35'(179.6°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL170km(90NM)

<Forecast for 13/12 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N13°30'(13.5°)
E177°10'(177.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 990hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 25m/s(50kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(70kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)

<Forecast for 14/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°05'(14.1°)
E174°50'(174.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(12kt)
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL190km(100NM)

<Forecast for 15/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°25'(15.4°)
E170°30'(170.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 16/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N16°40'(16.7°)
E166°20'(166.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL500km(270NM)

[cycloneye]

JTWC warning on now at WPAC HALOLA.

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA) WARNING
NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780 NM
EAST- SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
MAINTAINED A GOOD OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE DURING THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND
EXTRAPOLATION OF A MICROWAVE EYE SEEN IN A 130341Z GPM IMAGE. THE
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON INCREASES IN DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE 130500Z AMSU-B IMAGE SHOWS THAT
THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE LLCC.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA
OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW
THAT IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO TS HALOLA. THE CYCLONE
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 01C WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE STR. IT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS
GOOD OUTFLOW PERSISTS AND AS IT TRACKS ALONG WARM SSTS.
ADDITIONALLY, VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AS THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW
BECOMES MORE IN-PHASE WITH THE FORECAST STORM MOTION. THE SYSTEM WILL
REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 24.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, TS HALOLA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. THE SYSTEM
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS PERSIST. DESPITE LIMITED MODEL GUIDANCE, MODELS ARE IN
VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Near major typhoon expected...

[euro6208]

The Marianas is the hotspot globally...

It might get a visit from a possible strong typhoon and bottoms out in the 30's...

[cycloneye]

WDPN32 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 01C (HALOLA) WARNING
NR 14//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 694 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED IR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED ITS OVERALL STRUCTURE WITH BANDING WRAPPING
MORE TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC. THERE REMAINS HINTS OF THE NEAR RADIAL
OUTFLOW PROVIDING GOOD EXHAUST FOR THE SYSTEM. A 131111z SSMI IMAGE
CONTINUES TO SHOW DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE AND BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ABOVE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED DUE TO
IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LIGHT
TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOT) VWS THAT IS OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW.
TS HALOLA IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 01C WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AND WILL INTENSIFY AT AN AVERAGE RATE
AS GOOD OUTFLOW PERSISTS AND AS IT TRACKS THOUGH WATER WITH
CONDUCIVE OHC. THE CURRENT VWS IS EXPECTED TO RELAX AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES MORE IN-PHASE WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TS HALOLA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR AS THE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD. EXPECT CONTINUAL INTENSIFICATION DUE TO
PERSISTENT FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, REACHING A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS REMAIN IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[galaxy401]

Has a long life ahead it seems. It seems like most CPAC storms that move into the WPAC become powerful typhoons.

[404UserNotFound]

Has a long life ahead it seems. It seems like most CPAC storms that move into the WPAC become powerful typhoons.

I'm not so sure about "most". I still remember 2009, where two or three storms went in and failed to intensify. Also Pewa (although that may have been stronger than indicated). Some, definitely (look at 1997).

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Upgraded.

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ32 PGUM 140903
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TYPHOON HALOLA (01C) ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU CP012015
800 PM CHST TUE JUL 14 2015

...TYPHOON HALOLA MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
NONE.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 173.8E

ABOUT 420 MILES NORTHEAST OF UTIRIK
ABOUT 635 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAJURO
ABOUT 530 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND AND
ABOUT 1945 MILES EAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 PM CHST...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON HALOLA WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.9 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 173.8 EAST...MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. HALOLA IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THIS
GENERAL COURSE AND SPEED INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...AND PASS JUST
BARELY SOUTH OF WAKE ISLAND ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 100 MPH. TYPHOON HALOLA IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY FURTHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TYPHOON FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 20 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 200 AM EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

$$

SIMPSON

[euro6208]

WDPN32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 01C (HALOLA) WARNING
NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 01C (HALOLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 496 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS THAT DESPITE THE CYCLONE LOSING ITS EYE FEATURE, IT HAS
BEEN REPLACED WITH DEEPENING CENTRAL CONVECTION AND SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
ASSESSMENT OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES AND
SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 83 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20
KNOT) SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY GOOD
DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW, AIDED BY A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST. TY HALOLA
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 01C WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
MORE VARIABLE AS THE TUTT CELL ASSISTING WITH OUTFLOW DISSIPATES AND
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTHWEST SUPPRESSES THE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE VARIABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO
A MODEST INTENSIFICATION RATE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEND TO A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 36 AS THE STEERING STR FLATTENS AND PRESSES
DOWN ON THE CYCLONE.
C. BEYOND TAU 72, TY HALOLA WILL BEGIN TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD
AGAIN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES DOWNSTREAM FROM THE STEERING STR AXIS.
EXPECT THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION TO INCREASE AS TY 01C REGAINS A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS REMAINING UNCHANGED OVER THE PAST 3
CYCLES. THIS LENDS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN