EPAC: GUILLERMO - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ25 KNES 291820
TCSENP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91E)

B. 29/1800Z

C. 8.0N

D. 123.6W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T2.5/2.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...4/10 BANDING FOR DT=2.5. MET=2.0 WITH PT=2.5. FT IS
BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

29/1251Z 7.6N 121.9W AMSU
29/1440Z 7.8N 122.2W SSMIS


...SALEMI

[Kingarabian]

Looks ready.

[Kingarabian]

They need to pull the trigger.

[Alyono]

TXPZ24 KNES 291816
TCSENP

A. 08E (NONAME)

B. 29/1800Z

C. 16.8N

D. 134.9W

E. THREE/GOES-W

F. T1.5/2.0/W0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...LESS THAN 1.25 DEGREE SHEAR FOR DT=1.5. MET=1.0 WITH
PT=1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SALEMI

wrong one. That is Eight-E

[Yellow Evan]

wrong one. That is Eight-E

Edited. Thanks.

[Kingarabian]

12z Euro more north, back to a Hawaii landfall as a weak TS/TD. Also intensifies 91E into a Cat.2. Track wise, it recognizes the trough that the GFS has but builds the ridge back much earlier.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF run got weird at the end (ECMWF not great at depicting mountains), but did make this a solid hurricane.

[Kingarabian]

12z ECMWF run got weird at the end (ECMWF not great at depicting mountains), but did make this a solid hurricane.

The past 3-4 runs, the Euro has been consistent. GFS is becoming a windshield wiper.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF run got weird at the end (ECMWF not great at depicting mountains), but did make this a solid hurricane.

The past 3-4 runs, the Euro has been consistent. GFS is becoming a windshield wiper.

GFS has been very erratic in general. At this point, I'd favor the ECMWF.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 91, 201507291558, 30, SSMS, C, , 770N, 12320W, , 2, , , , 3, , , , , , , , , , , , 3, , , , NHC, SRS, , , , , , , , , SSMS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 3, pbo two tightly crvd interlocking cnvtv bands
EP, 91, 201507291800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 800N, 12360W, , 2, 35, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, TS, VIM, 3, 2525 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=2.0 PT=2.5 FTBO DT
EP, 91, 201507291800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 790N, 12360W, , 3, 30, 2, 1009, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, MT, VI, 5, 2020 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T,

I'd go straight to TS and round upward here.

EP, 91, 2015072918, , BEST, 0, 78N, 1234W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 220, 80, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,

NHC doesn't bite though.

[Kingarabian]

[Kingarabian]

EP, 91, 201507291558, 30, SSMS, C, , 770N, 12320W, , 2, , , , 3, , , , , , , , , , , , 3, , , , NHC, SRS, , , , , , , , , SSMS, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 3, pbo two tightly crvd interlocking cnvtv bands
EP, 91, 201507291800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 800N, 12360W, , 2, 35, 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, SAB, TS, VIM, 3, 2525 /////, , , GOES15, LLCC, T, DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=2.0 PT=2.5 FTBO DT
EP, 91, 201507291800, 10, DVTS, CI, , 790N, 12360W, , 3, 30, 2, 1009, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, MT, VI, 5, 2020 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T,

I'd go straight to TS and round upward here.

EP, 91, 2015072918, , BEST, 0, 78N, 1234W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 220, 80, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013,

NHC doesn't bite though.

Pretty sure that if its Stewart's shift, it would be declared.

[Yellow Evan]

Based on the parameters, this shouldn't have too much trouble becoming a strong TS or hurricane.

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP912015 07/29/15 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 41 47 51 62 71 76 77 74 71 69 66
V (KT) LAND 30 35 41 47 51 62 71 76 77 74 71 69 66
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 37 42 46 56 67 75 76 72 65 58 54
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 9 8 9 11 8 9 7 8 10 13 9 13
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -6 -5 -3 -1 1 4 11 12 10 5 8 3
SHEAR DIR 32 30 352 353 357 17 347 335 320 329 324 322 340
SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.2 28.7 28.5 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.2
POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 153 154 157 160 159 154 151 144 140 137 134
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 83 81 79 75 70 69 71 74 74 72 69 68 64
MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 14 15 15 16 19 20 21 20 20 20 20
850 MB ENV VOR 19 23 23 17 13 10 10 10 9 23 20 32 32
200 MB DIV 110 118 114 114 117 93 68 72 77 36 37 23 33
700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -4 -6 -1 6 5 5 7 5 10 7
LAND (KM) 2208 2257 2296 2349 2410 2555 2353 1990 1653 1376 1192 1038 910
LAT (DEG N) 7.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 123.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 16 16 16 14 10 7 7 6
HEAT CONTENT 35 45 42 39 21 21 30 32 12 14 14 10 8

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 30. 31. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 12. 11. 12. 11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 17. 21. 32. 41. 46. 47. 44. 41. 39. 36.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP912015 INVEST 07/29/15 18 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 56% is 4.3 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 25% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Yellow Evan]

Pretty sure that if its Stewart's shift, it would be declared.

I know he did the ATL TWO. So it might be his shift.

I expect the NHC to upgrade this regardless of who's on.

[Kingarabian]

Based on the parameters, this shouldn't have too much trouble becoming a strong TS or hurricane.

I think I'm going to have to go with your major hurricane prediction that you had yesterday. CIMSS is showing similar low shear numbers in its path, the invest looks great with well defined banding features, and the GFS and Euro both showed it becoming a major at least once in their past runs.

[Yellow Evan]

Based on the parameters, this shouldn't have too much trouble becoming a strong TS or hurricane.

I think I'm going to have to go with your major hurricane prediction that you had yesterday. CIMSS is showing similar low shear numbers in its path, the invest looks great with well defined banding features, and the GFS and Euro both showed it becoming a major at least once in their past runs.

Only downside is if the storm turns north, it could encounter higher shear faster.

GFS/ECMWF aren't as bullish in this part of the world as they are in other parts. None of the models can really deictic the annular-esque typical 130W major very well, or at least not in past versions of the GFS/ECMWF.

[Alyono]

there is a negative Kelvin wave that will affect this system. May be why the dynamical models are showing a weaker system

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like ASCAT missed the system.

[Yellow Evan]

there is a negative Kelvin wave that will affect this system. May be why the dynamical models are showing a weaker system

A weak one, but yes a suppressed KW

[wxman57]

Here's a 3pm CDT satellite shot showing both "Tropical Depression Eight-E" (which appears to be a remnant low) and "Invest 91E" (which appears to be a strengthening tropical storm). Not sure what is missing for upgrading 91E.