EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

[TheStormExpert]

At least Recon will have something worthy to sample.

Anything these days in the East Pacific is worthy of having recon when compared with the crap recon has bothered flying into in the Atlantic the past year or two.

[Yellow Evan]

ATCTF brings this back down t0 85.

[TheAustinMan]

Dawn visible image shows Hurricane Blanca much more well-defined than it was yesterday.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 JUN 2015 Time : 144500 UTC
Lat : 15:01:08 N Lon : 107:01:44 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 951.6mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.7 5.9 5.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 44 km

Center Temp : +12.5C Cloud Region Temp : -69.7C

[talkon]

Blanca is looking good now.

[Yellow Evan]

Still too lopsided IMO and the eye needs to shrink.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 051435
TCDEP2

HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
900 AM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015

The intensity of Blanca has been oscillating around 85 and 90 kt
since yesterday. Latest satellite intensity estimates indicate
that there has been no change, and the winds are currently 85 kt.
Deep convection is beginning to increase and is becoming better
organized around the large circulation center. This could be an
indication that some restrengthening is about to begin. The
hurricane has about 24 hours to do so before the SSTs decrease,
which should result in gradual weakening. In fact, Blanca is
forecast to be a tropical storm as it moves near the southern Baja
California peninsula and become a remnant low over the high terrain
of the peninsula. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
en route to investigate Blanca and will provide more information
regarding the intensity and structure of the cyclone.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or
320 degrees at 9 kt. The hurricane is moving around the southwestern
periphery of a subtropical ridge over the United States and northern
Mexico. As Blanca gains latitude, it will become steered by the
southerly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough and
turn more toward the north. The dynamical guidance is now in much
better agreement, bringing the cyclone near or over the southern
Baja California peninsula beyond 48 hours or so. The NHC forecast is
similar to the previous one, and is in the middle of the very tight
guidance envelope.

Moisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help
produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 15.1N 106.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 16.1N 107.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 17.6N 109.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 19.4N 109.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 21.0N 110.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 24.5N 111.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 112.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 10/1200Z 28.0N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Avila

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Not sure why Avila brought the storm down to 85kt when satellite estimates have remained steady or increased and the overall satellite appearance has become better organized, but we'll see what recon finds.

[CrazyC83]

I'm not sure, but in a couple hours we will have a much better idea of the intensity. I'm thinking Recon will confirm the Cat 2 intensity, but with a much lower pressure.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 JUN 2015 Time : 161500 UTC
Lat : 15:06:01 N Lon : 107:17:37 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 947.1mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 27 km

Center Temp : +4.1C Cloud Region Temp : -68.8C

[Yellow Evan]

I'm not sure, but in a couple hours we will have a much better idea of the intensity. I'm thinking Recon will confirm the Cat 2 intensity, but with a much lower pressure.

I could see anywhere from 75-115 knots, but more likely on the low-end of that. Pressure will probs be sub-965, and maybe as low as 940 mbar.

[Cyclenall]

Its also weird how in the discussion Avila writes "there has been no change" even though it was lowered to 85 knots. Looks like a tri-eye is the type ongoing.

[Yellow Evan]

Its also weird how in the discussion Avila writes "there has been no change" even though it was lowered to 85 knots. Looks like a tri-eye is the type ongoing.

Well, the ATCF update from 6z was 85, so he might have though it was 85 at the previous advisory.

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Blanca is trying to restrengthen and on satellite imagery it is showing convection that is flaring up. If it wants to restrengthen it only has a day left to do so as the SSTs are going to cool. Interesting storm though.



Synopsis of Blanca and other basins: http://goo.gl/0JGFOV


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[MiamiensisWx]

If upwelling really caused Blanca to weaken and be more vulnerable to dry air, why didn't Hurricane Raymond (2013), which also stalled just after attaining its peak of 110 kt, suffer from upwelling between 21-15Z on 21-22 October?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/RAYMOND.shtml?

HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013

...THERE HAS BEEN MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SHIPS MODEL
SHOWS SOME DECREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND RAYMOND
SHOULD TRAVERSE WARM WATERS THROUGH 120 HOURS. THEREFORE IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ... THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO MOTION
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013

...MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING RAYMOND THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE RAYMOND MOVES OVER WARM WATERS. ... RAYMOND STILL
APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY AND IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF
WEAK STEERING BETWEEN A PAIR OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGES WELL TO THE EAST
AND WEST.

[CrazyC83]

If upwelling really caused Blanca to weaken and be more vulnerable to dry air, why didn't Hurricane Raymond (2013), which also stalled just after attaining its peak of 110 kt, suffer from upwelling between 21-15Z on 21-22 October?

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2013/RAYMOND.shtml?

HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
200 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013

...THERE HAS BEEN MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR AFFECTING THE SYSTEM AND UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS BEING IMPEDED
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SHIPS MODEL
SHOWS SOME DECREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND RAYMOND
SHOULD TRAVERSE WARM WATERS THROUGH 120 HOURS. THEREFORE IT IS
EXPECTED THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. ... THERE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY NO MOTION
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

HURRICANE RAYMOND DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172013
800 AM PDT TUE OCT 22 2013

...MODERATE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING RAYMOND THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE RAYMOND MOVES OVER WARM WATERS. ... RAYMOND STILL
APPEARS TO BE STATIONARY AND IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF
WEAK STEERING BETWEEN A PAIR OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGES WELL TO THE EAST
AND WEST.

There is more heat content in the ocean in October than in early June, but Raymond was definitely found later to have shown upwelling as well.

Recon so far only supports about 65 kt but has only been in one part of the storm.

[CrazyC83]

Structurally, this reminds me a lot of Isaac when it was in the north-central Gulf.

[Yellow Evan]

If upwelling really caused Blanca to weaken and be more vulnerable to dry air, why didn't Hurricane Raymond (2013), which also stalled just after attaining its peak of 110 kt, suffer from upwelling between 21-15Z on 21-22 October?

It did. But Raymond did not sit as much as Blanc,a and Raymond was smaller.

[Yellow Evan]

There is more heat content in the ocean in October than in early June, but Raymond was definitely found later to have shown upwelling as well.

Normally there would be, but OHC values were near 100 during Blanca, higher than Raymond.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the data right now, 70 kt seems right but the plane hasn't been in the entire storm at all.