ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Blown Away]

JB thinks Erika may get trapped...

[Extratropical94]

Good morning to all,

I have seen another possible scenario of Erica possibly going up the West coast of Florida.
Is that plausible or just an Outlier? Have a great day!

Currently, this scenario is considered to be less likely than a recurve east of the Florida peninsula. In order for that to happen, Erika would have to stay weak to not get pulled polewards, the Bermuda ridge would have to be stronger than forecast to push Erika further towards the west and the storm would also have to avoid the mountainous terrain of islands like Hispaniola and areas of high wind shear to survive.

The likelihood of all these factors coming together is relatively small compared to other model outputs and solutions, but certainly not impossible.

And as always:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT

WHCA31 TAPA
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALERT STATEMENT
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
10:04 PM ECT MON, AUG 24, 2015

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 825 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM HAS NOT YET DEVELOPED A FULLY CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION.

RECENT REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE LOW IS PRODUCING WINDS TO TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE, AND ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION WOULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 20 MPH.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS INCLUDING ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND BE PREPARED TO ACT SHOULD WATCHES AND WARNINGS BE REQUIRED AT SHORT NOTICE.

THE MET OFFICE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AND WILL UPDATE THE PUBLIC ACCORDINGLY.

FORECASTER CECIL MATTHEW

[Extratropical94]

AL, 05, 2015082512, , BEST, 0, 150N, 502W, 40, 1003, TS

No change in intensity.

[chaser1]

there is another scenario, and not sure why it is not being discussed here as most models show this happening.

The system weakens back to a wave (if it even had a fully closed circulation) and regenerates in the Bahamas or SE GOM

That's not exciting enough though for some.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/ipsm_ ... _HGT_WINDS
Maybe end up being a New York storm

Alright, time to get a plane in this thing! No doubt, Erika isn't looking all to stellar this a.m. Warmer SST's or a decrease in forward speed as forecasted will no doubt go a long way toward the storms overall health. A few different views have been tossed up regarding Erika's ultimate course and i'd have to agree that its way too early to suggest that any of those can't play out. In fact, as Alyono suggested, I think a reasonable outcome would be for Erika to continue fighting upper level shear while continuing to ingest dry air into its circulation, and perhaps degenerating back to an open wave while moving primarily westward through the N. Caribbean. Then, perhaps under less volatile conditions, possibly redeveloping in the N.W. Caribbean or S. Gulf in the days to come. I don't necessarily think this will occur, but until Erika has become a bit more vertically established, it might be a nearly 50/50 proposition. If and when Erika continues to become better developed during the next 24-36 hours, then I might rule out that scenario and the question becomes does the storm get tangled up moving over the islands of the Antilles, move toward the Bahamas/Florida as present projections would appear, or re-curve east of Florida possibly affecting the East Coast farther north or even remaining entirely east of the U.S.

[chaser1]

One think I will say, I'm certainly not reserving my table at Aruba's by the pier in Ft. Lauderdale to watch the deteriorating weather conditions until Erika decides to shake Uncle SAL as her companion (just don't like his dusty disposition, LOL)

[wxman57]

I wouldn't assume that Erika is going to become better organized over the next day or two. It's encountering the same hostile environment as Danny now. If anything, it looks less organized today than it did yesterday. The presence of a closed and well-organized LLC is at least a little questionable. Erika could be at worst a weak TS as it moves through/near the NE Caribbean tomorrow night and Wednesday.

It's past the DR where Erika could cause problems. Ensembles are quite divergent on Erika's long-term future. There is a chance it could enter the eastern Gulf and track north as a sheared TS. It could track right into south Florida as a moderate to strong TS, maybe even a hurricane then turn north. Or, it could track into the Bahamas then turn north into an environment that would favor strengthening. That's the Euro solution. Everyone from the Florida Panhandle to the Mid Atlantic Coast should keep a wary eye on Erika.

As for me, I'd say the more likely scenario may be something similar to the Euro - hurricane off the SE U.S. Coast in 7-8 days then tracking out to sea, eventually.

[JPmia]

One think I will say, I'm certainly not reserving my table at Aruba's by the pier in Ft. Lauderdale to watch the deteriorating weather conditions until Erika decides to shake Uncle SAL as her companion (just don't like his dusty disposition, LOL)

huh.. I've done that before.. it's quite fun in a tropical storm.. the Mai Thais and Hurricane cocktails seem to taste better!

[Alyono]

think I see a "center" near 14.8N, 51.5W. That's the only low level feature.

Very exposed. I'd give it a better than 50% chance of becoming a wave later today. Not that concerned for the Leewards/VI/PR. Watch for redevelopment in the Bahamas

[alienstorm]

Erika looks very sick this morning and I would not be surprised if it is downgraded later when the recons get there. This is why forecasting is a so difficult. Danny became a CAT3 out here and Erika is falling apart.

[cycloneye]

Looks bad. Center is Exposed.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Exposed.

She is naked. You guys didn't tell me this could get R rated. I do not think she is surviving that trip to the Bahamas. She hates cruises and that is just my opinion of course.

[TheStormExpert]

think I see a "center" near 14.8N, 51.5W. That's the only low level feature.

Very exposed. I'd give it a better than 50% chance of becoming a wave later today. Not that concerned for the Leewards/VI/PR. Watch for redevelopment in the Bahamas

Do you see Erika becoming a hurricane in the Bahamas?

[jlauderdal]

One think I will say, I'm certainly not reserving my table at Aruba's by the pier in Ft. Lauderdale to watch the deteriorating weather conditions until Erika decides to shake Uncle SAL as her companion (just don't like his dusty disposition, LOL)

i will walk over to arubas and take a picture as erika is heading northbound offshore

[BobHarlem]

As for me, I'd say the more likely scenario may be something similar to the Euro - hurricane off the SE U.S. Coast in 7-8 days then tracking out to sea, eventually.

That stall doesn't change that? Or the fact the storm is pathetically weak this morning and generally trending west?

[NCSTORMMAN]

Buoys near Erika appear to show pressure rising and weak winds at best.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

[Alyono]

Danny is better organized than Tropical Wave Erica at this point

[Weatherboy1]

I refused to get too worked up over Erika last night, given what happened to Danny. Now, it looks like my skepticism was warranted based on its satellite appearance. While several models do try to do something more with her in the SE Bahamas, and at least a few are pointed at SE FL where I am, I've seen a lot of systems in a similar situation just steered/turned out to sea. And this season, we're seeing systems fall apart before they even get in that pipeline.

So long story short, not worried much at all unless she gets her act together soon ... and models are still trending toward FL by tomorrow evening. Just one semi-educated amateur's opinion of course - listen to the experts for the real deal!

[tropicwatch]

Aloyono I was thinking the same thing about Danny. Also Gonzo is apparently up and on the way to Ericka.

[Weatherboy1]

I'm thinking it's almost time to sing that Queen song "Another one bites the dust" here. LOL