Global model runs discussion

[cycloneye]

The San Juan afternoon AFD paints a grim picture for those who like to track systems in the North Atlantic.Here is an excerpt from the discussion.

INVEST 93L IS HEADING TO THE NORTHWEST AND WHILE IT MAY EVENTUALLY
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT LIKELY TO TROUBLE ANY LAND AREAS
OTHER THAN THE AZORES. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REST OF THE
TROPICS...MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FROM ANY
DEVELOPMENT AND DO NOT SUGGEST ANY OTHER AREAS OF POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT/INTEREST IN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. SO AS WE ENTER THE
MOST ACTIVE PART OF THE SEASON ALL OF A SUDDEN CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE ATLC BASIN REMAIN RELATIVELY QUIET.

[Riptide]

Models can quickly change again, no need to disregard anything yet. Sometimes you need to go with climatology or you will be a poor forecaster.

[Kingarabian]

Our friend El Nino maybe the one to blame.

[Riptide]

:uarrow: Our friend El Nino maybe the one to blame.

The unfavorable conditions in the tropical Atlantic are not related to the ENSO, there is simply a lack of local instability caused by a myriad of factors; mostly associated with temperature gradients in the atmosphere.

[somethingfunny]

The GFS has been king early in this season, but it has no idea what it's doing now with these Cape Verde waves. There is nothing realistic about a strong wave emerging and immediately developing into a hurricane at nearly 20°N from Africa and strengthening from there on a WNW track. It showed that for 93L and I thought it was odd, and it did indeed fail, and now it's continued to show it for a number of waves in the future.

[blp]

FWIW, 18z back to showing development in the african wave train with a recurve in mid range and a storm under the ridge at 384hr. Given the previous track record this year I won't pay much attention till the Euro comes on board.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/18zgfs.html

[cycloneye]

FWIW, 18z back to showing development in the african wave train with a recurve in mid range and a storm under the ridge at 384hr. Given the previous track record this year I won't pay much attention till the Euro comes on board.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/18zgfs.html

The Euro had a hurricane around 13N-51W on Sundays 12z run but did an about face from that in the 00z and 12z Monday runs.

[HurricaneFan]

So are the models saying anything about the Tropical Wave along 10E in Central Africa right now?
It will seem quite strange if there was nothing on any model being how very good it looks now.
Also is there any consensus about the High Pressure pattern from Aug 19th-Sep 5th?
Will it be condusive to ocean storms or will any have a good chance of making it to the Lesser Antilles?
Maybe the models might do an 180 when they sense better conditions on the 19th.

[cycloneye]

So are the models saying anything about the Tropical Wave along 10E in Central Africa right now?
It will seem quite strange if there was nothing on any model being how very good it looks now.
Also is there any consensus about the High Pressure pattern from Aug 19th-Sep 5th?
Will it be condusive to ocean storms or will any have a good chance of making it to the Lesser Antilles?
Maybe the models might do an 180 when they sense better conditions on the 19th.

This is the well defined wave in Central Africa.Let's see if the models start to pick it up it in the next runs. Saved image.

[SFLcane]

Current trough/ridge pattern would seem to favor re-curving hurricanes between the East Coast & Bermuda for a few weeks.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, it's been many years since I can remember conditions looking as horrible as they do this year in the Atlantic. Usually you have dry air here or there, or shear here or there, but this year dry air and shear just seem to be dominating. And from what I've been told anyway, the El Nino isn't even here yet, so it's not as if conditions are suddenly going to magically get better once El Nino hits......
Do like me, take this normally busy season and get stuff done!! I'm doing outdoor activities and chores that I normally can't do, because I get addicted to reading this board...... Don't worry, I'm sure next year, the big storms will be back and so will the addiction to the board. It's just one of those abnormal years...... It was a strong quick start to the season which will probably be cut short by the El Nino bringing a halt to the tropical activity...........

Enjoy the time off!!!!
On a side note, I wouldn't be suprised if we get a storm or two originating in the Gulf of Mexico before the year is all said and done...

[gatorcane]

Definitely looks like a season cancel post there ConvergenceZone. Keep in mind it's only August 13th!

Though the global models don't show anything yet, I don't think it will be too much longer before they latch on to something especially since the climatological peak of the season is still nearly 4 weeks away (Sept 10th)

[ConvergenceZone]

Definitely looks like a season cancel post there ConvergenceZone. Keep in mind it's only August 13th!

Though the global models don't show anything yet, I don't think it will be too much longer before they latch on to something especially since the climatological peak of the season is still nearly 4 weeks away (Sept 10th)

Put it this way, if we weren't going into El Nino, I wouldn't even have made that post....Please note that at the end of my post I said, that I wouldn't be suprised if we got a system or 2 out of the Gulf before all is said and done , so it it definately wasn't a season cancel post...

But with El Nino, one shouldn't expect much more......I think it was luis or KWT that mentioned that with El Nino the season typically comes to an end earlier than non El Nino seasons...I'd have to run past year statistics to see if that is indeed true, BUT even if that is true, one should still keep an eye to the gulf, because anything can spin up there.........

[tolakram]

Shear is still normal to below normal, as shown in the charts I posted yesterday, so where is el nino?

[rainstorm]

shear wont be a big issue, but everything else seems negative.

[KWT]

Shear is still normal to below normal, as shown in the charts I posted yesterday, so where is el nino?

The main problem isn't the amount of shear, its where the shear is located. Its been located mainly in the prime development zone for tropical waves to develop. This area is say from 55-70W and 15-30N and that area I'm pretty confident would have had above average shear. The W.Caribbean is fine as seems to the E/C Atlantic and the subtropics. El Nino set-ups tend to have alot more in the way of shearing TUTT's and upper troughs that dig down further from what I've noticed in the past. If you want a lovely example of the problems this area of shear has caused, take a look at Ernesto and TD7, one struggled alot, the other died off.

Just because we have El Nino though that certainly doesn't mean that we can't get a good burst of activity, plenty of weak El Nino's have had bursts, heck 2002 had the joint most active September ever and that was at that point a weak El nino I believe!

Anyway this is a little off topic, maybe a thread could be made to discuss this issue and move these posts there?

[ROCK]

no models showing anything in any range. Its like someone turned the light switch off or maybe they turned HARP off....

[cycloneye]

no models showing anything in any range. Its like someone turned the light switch off or maybe they turned HARP off....

Wel,at least GFS comes to life but on long range. I notice that this model emerge the waves way north in latitude and that is why all go to the fishes.

[gatorcane]

It's super-long range but the 12Z GFS shows a significant system tracking west across the MDR at the end of August:

[blp]

12z Euro back on the development train. Looks like a potential fish at that position.

Imaged Saved:



Uploaded with ImageShack.us