Global model runs discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

All I can say is that I'm absolutely SHOCKED and I do mean SHOCKED and how lucky the USA has been...No major hurricanes for how long now?? I'm sure it will probably change next year, as this can only go on for so long, but yes very very SHOCKED....Absolutely unbelievable and how lucky the USA has been.....

[Fego]

GFS 00Z establish a huge ridge over the Atlantic with a low runner tc crossing the Caribbean. Well, is just a run, not a trend.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLoop.html

[HURRICANELONNY]

All I can say is that I'm absolutely SHOCKED and I do mean SHOCKED and how lucky the USA has been...No major hurricanes for how long now?? I'm sure it will probably change next year, as this can only go on for so long, but yes very very SHOCKED....Absolutely unbelievable and how lucky the USA has been.....

Tell that to the people of Mississippi. They're very happy it wasn't a major.

[ConvergenceZone]

All I can say is that I'm absolutely SHOCKED and I do mean SHOCKED and how lucky the USA has been...No major hurricanes for how long now?? I'm sure it will probably change next year, as this can only go on for so long, but yes very very SHOCKED....Absolutely unbelievable and how lucky the USA has been.....

Tell that to the people of Mississippi. They're very happy it wasn't a major.

Oh I'm sure they are, my point being is to point out just how extremely lucky the USA has been over the last few years, and with each year that passes without a major, the % change increase that a major will happen...Luck can only last you so long.

[LarryWx]

Oh I'm sure they are, my point being is to point out just how extremely lucky the USA has been over the last few years, and with each year that passes without a major, the % change increase that a major will happen...Luck can only last you so long.

I'm not sure I agree with the underlined. I say that because I feel that each year's pattern is largely independent of what recent years have done. If anything, there may be a small positive correlation rather than a negative correlation. Based on what you're saying, having no major hit in a specific season increases the chance that there will be one during the subsequent season. For the most part, I don't buy that due to the independence idea. Now, granted, as each year passes without one, we get one year closer to the next major hit, which I think you may really be trying to say. However, that year could still be 3, 4, 5 or more years from now.

[HurrMark]

The percent of a major hurricane hitting the US is more or less independent of what happens the prior year. What happened in 2011 does not influence 2012 (except for long-scale phenomena like the multi-decadal oscillation).

What is amazing, though is that we will likely have seven years in a row without a major hurricane striking the US (I personally do not see anything happening in September...and by early October, the chances of a major hurricane tend to start to decrease dramatically...especially in an El Nino year). According to Gray and Klotzbach, there is a 52% chance in any given year that a major hurricane strikes US soil. So to have seven in a row is like flipping a coin slightly weighted in favor of heads seven times and getting tails each time...the probability of this is (0.48)^7 or 0.0587...essentially, this is a 1 in 170 occurrence.

I do think that looking at the general weather patterns over the past 10+ years, something appears to be climatologically "out of whack", and is more or less keeping the heavy hitters away from the US, or if a heavy hitter is approaching the US, weakening it before landfall. Outside Charley and to a lesser degree Humberto, there have hardly been any storms that have significantly intensified as they approached the US. And East Coast troughs are unusually deep and far-reaching. Since Ike in 2008, we have had 69 (soon to be 70) named storms...and out of these, just a few tropical storms and two category-one hurricanes made landfall. I will say this might be pure luck, but it also might be a climatological signal as well. Perhaps Kerry Emanuel's theory that hurricane intensity might be tempered due to global warming may be true...

[SoupBone]

Oh I'm sure they are, my point being is to point out just how extremely lucky the USA has been over the last few years, and with each year that passes without a major, the % change increase that a major will happen...Luck can only last you so long.

I'm not sure I agree with the underlined. I say that because I feel that each year's pattern is largely independent of what recent years have done. If anything, there may be a small positive correlation rather than a negative correlation. Based on what you're saying, having no major hit in a specific season increases the chance that there will be one during the subsequent season. For the most part, I don't buy that due to the independence idea. Now, granted, as each year passes without one, we get one year closer to the next major hit, which I think you may really be trying to say. However, that year could still be 3, 4, 5 or more years from now.

I'd like to add to this. Also, considering our weather history barely registers on the scale compared to the actual age of the earth, we simply cannot accurately state the occurences of major hurricanes in our planet's history. I do believe that our recorded years of patterns help inch us closer each season, but it's a long slow crawl, not a sprint.

[hcane27]

Oh I'm sure they are, my point being is to point out just how extremely lucky the USA has been over the last few years, and with each year that passes without a major, the % change increase that a major will happen...Luck can only last you so long.

I'm not sure I agree with the underlined. I say that because I feel that each year's pattern is largely independent of what recent years have done. If anything, there may be a small positive correlation rather than a negative correlation. Based on what you're saying, having no major hit in a specific season increases the chance that there will be one during the subsequent season. For the most part, I don't buy that due to the independence idea. Now, granted, as each year passes without one, we get one year closer to the next major hit, which I think you may really be trying to say. However, that year could still be 3, 4, 5 or more years from now.

I'd like to add to this. Also, considering our weather history barely registers on the scale compared to the actual age of the earth, we simply cannot accurately state the occurences of major hurricanes in our planet's history. I do believe that our recorded years of patterns help inch us closer each season, but it's a long slow crawl, not a sprint.

I would like to add that there appears to be no major change in the "number" of tropical systems making "landfall" along the U.S. since accurate record-keeping began. That in itself would lead one to the conclusion that the systems which are making said landfall are still doing so ... only in an average weaker state. The reason(s) behind the apparent lack of intensity are there to be found. I am jusat not sure we have enough of the details yet to make that judgement.

[hcane27]

Oh I'm sure they are, my point being is to point out just how extremely lucky the USA has been over the last few years, and with each year that passes without a major, the % change increase that a major will happen...Luck can only last you so long.

I'm not sure I agree with the underlined. I say that because I feel that each year's pattern is largely independent of what recent years have done. If anything, there may be a small positive correlation rather than a negative correlation. Based on what you're saying, having no major hit in a specific season increases the chance that there will be one during the subsequent season. For the most part, I don't buy that due to the independence idea. Now, granted, as each year passes without one, we get one year closer to the next major hit, which I think you may really be trying to say. However, that year could still be 3, 4, 5 or more years from now.

I'd like to add to this. Also, considering our weather history barely registers on the scale compared to the actual age of the earth, we simply cannot accurately state the occurences of major hurricanes in our planet's history. I do believe that our recorded years of patterns help inch us closer each season, but it's a long slow crawl, not a sprint.

I would like to add that there appears to be no major change in the "number" of tropical systems making "landfall" along the U.S. since accurate record-keeping began. That in itself would lead one to the conclusion that the systems which are making said landfall are still doing so ... only in an average weaker state. The reason(s) behind the apparent lack of intensity are there to be found. I am jusat not sure we have enough of the details yet to make that judgement.

[cycloneye]

GFS ensemble develops a Western Caribbean system but is in lalaland. (On the 27th) But that area is favored for late season developments by late September thru October.Let's see if the next operational GFS runs start to show this.

[SoupBone]

GFS ensemble develops a Western Caribbean system but is in lalaland. (On the 27th) But that area is favored for late season developments by late September thru October.Let's see if the next operational GFS runs start to show this.

Did any models pick up on the discussion about the area of interest right behind TD14?

"A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
14N23W TO 4N24W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 23W-26W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS."

[cycloneye]

GFS ensemble develops a Western Caribbean system but is in lalaland. (On the 27th) But that area is favored for late season developments by late September thru October.Let's see if the next operational GFS runs start to show this.

Did any models pick up on the discussion about the area of interest right behind TD14?

"A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
14N23W TO 4N24W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 23W-26W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS."

Not that one but for the one behind that will emerge West Africa by Thursday. This is the 12z GFS loop.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[LarryWx]

GFS ensemble develops a Western Caribbean system but is in lalaland. (On the 27th) But that area is favored for late season developments by late September thru October.Let's see if the next operational GFS runs start to show this.

Did any models pick up on the discussion about the area of interest right behind TD14?

"A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
14N23W TO 4N24W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 23W-26W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS."

Not that one but for the one behind that will emerge West Africa by Thursday. This is the 12z GFS loop.

Luis,
Although they keep it weak, I think both the 12Z GFS and 12Z Euro actually did pick up on the area right behind TD 14. I had just posted about this in the "Interesting area in E ATL" thread before I saw your post here. I had said that both the 12Z Euro and the 12Z GFS take it largely westward til ~50-55W and then sharply recurve it underneath Nadine to be. You might want to look again closely at those two model runs. This is the wave that is now south of the CV's.

[SoupBone]

GFS ensemble develops a Western Caribbean system but is in lalaland. (On the 27th) But that area is favored for late season developments by late September thru October.Let's see if the next operational GFS runs start to show this.

Did any models pick up on the discussion about the area of interest right behind TD14?

"A TROPICAL WAVE IS S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM
14N23W TO 4N24W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 23W-26W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WAVE AXIS."

Not that one but for the one behind that will emerge West Africa by Thursday. This is the 12z GFS loop.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

If you look at TD14 on the link you provided, the area of interest is marked with a pressure of 1011mb to the SE of TD14 at the beginning of the loop. It looks like it follows TD14 out to sea, but with one heck of a recurve angle.

[Hurricane Alexis]

12z GFS and 18z GFS both start to develop something in the W/SW caribbean in the extremely long range. Showed this solution a few days ago also.

[vbhoutex]

Last half of the season will be a fun one

Elaborate please.

[WYNweather]

Wilma was an mid oct storm. Still a long way to go yet in the season.

[Cyclenall]

Last half of the season will be a fun one

Elaborate please.

Maybe he means will be as fun as watching paint dry.

[ConvergenceZone]

The percent of a major hurricane hitting the US is more or less independent of what happens the prior year. What happened in 2011 does not influence 2012 (except for long-scale phenomena like the multi-decadal oscillation).

What is amazing, though is that we will likely have seven years in a row without a major hurricane striking the US (I personally do not see anything happening in September...and by early October, the chances of a major hurricane tend to start to decrease dramatically...especially in an El Nino year). According to Gray and Klotzbach, there is a 52% chance in any given year that a major hurricane strikes US soil. So to have seven in a row is like flipping a coin slightly weighted in favor of heads seven times and getting tails each time...the probability of this is (0.48)^7 or 0.0587...essentially, this is a 1 in 170 occurrence.

I do think that looking at the general weather patterns over the past 10+ years, something appears to be climatologically "out of whack", and is more or less keeping the heavy hitters away from the US, or if a heavy hitter is approaching the US, weakening it before landfall. Outside Charley and to a lesser degree Humberto, there have hardly been any storms that have significantly intensified as they approached the US. And East Coast troughs are unusually deep and far-reaching. Since Ike in 2008, we have had 69 (soon to be 70) named storms...and out of these, just a few tropical storms and two category-one hurricanes made landfall. I will say this might be pure luck, but it also might be a climatological signal as well. Perhaps Kerry Emanuel's theory that hurricane intensity might be tempered due to global warming may be true...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Yea, I agree with you, no major hurricane will be happening this year. The conditions just aren't there to sustain it and those conditions just won't magically poof into existence..... Think of how many opportunities there have already been this year for a cane to go major and it just wasn't able to occur. As I look at the Carib/Gulf and Atlantic, the environment doesn't really look much better than it did earlier.... People can say, "it's still early" until they are blue in the face, but if the conditions aren't there, they aren't there.... I think next year will be the year. (just a hunch).

[bamajammer4eva]

Something getting going on the Gulf Coast??

From NWS Tallahassee

The latest run of the 00z GFS and EURO coming into better agreement
showing an increasingly amplifying/digging trough moving from Plains
Ewd to dominate Gulf region by Mon. Deepening trough drags cold
front SEWD to bisect our area by Mon eve. At same time, a shortwave
over the Plains to commence the period gets swept into longwave
trough and moves NEWD enhancing local rainfall by Sat. Also it likely
develops surface reflection in W/Cntrl Gulf Coast by Sat night that
lifts along front across local area late Sun into Mon then out of
our area by late Tues. This solution would favor a relatively wet
and windy period especially Sun eve thru Tues.

5 day Euro from 00z




5 day GFS from 00z