WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

live visible, almost out of range of this view.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=13&lon=-175&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&type=Animation&quality=90&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=10

[Alyono]

shear persists. convection still getting blasted away. However, it is refiring quicker than yesterday

[Kingarabian]

Need to watch the trough digging to the NE of Kauai. We could see some changes with the track and intensity if Kilo feels that weakness quicker that currently forecast.

I think that's what the Euro is showing through 48 hrs.

[Yellow Evan]

shear persists. convection still getting blasted away. However, it is refiring quicker than yesterday

Looks on the moderate still, yea, but it's diminishing.

[Yellow Evan]

Disco was well written.

WTPA41 PHFO 230255
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 PM HST SAT AUG 22 2015

KILO CONTINUES TO BE A MESSY SYSTEM WITH VIGOROUS CONVECTION BUT
A DIFFICULT TO LOCATE LOW LEVEL CENTER. CENTER FIX ESTIMATES FROM
THE VARIOUS SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES SHOWED A CONSIDERABLE SPREAD.
OUR CENTER ESTIMATE IS NEAR A PERSISTENT LOW CLOUD SWIRL WHICH HAS
BEEN EVIDENT IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY SINCE DAYBREAK...AS WELL AS A
BLOWUP OF NEW CONVECTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 1.5 FROM JTWC...2.0 FROM SAB...AND 2.5 FROM
PHFO. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS THUS A COMPROMISE VALUE OF 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 295/13. A MID LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE SOUTHEAST OF HAWAII IS CONTINUING TO STEER THE
DEPRESSION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE
WHICH EXTENDS WEST FROM THIS ANTICYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...PUTTING KILO IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF VERY WEAK
STEERING WHICH WILL SLOW THE CYCLONE TO A CRAWL IN THE DAY 3-5
TIMEFRAME. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS ALSO FORECAST IN THAT
TIME RANGE...DUE IN PART TO A DEEP TROUGH NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. THE SHARPNESS OF THE RECURVATURE AT LONGER RANGE APPEARS TO
BE A FUNCTION OF THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AS WELL AS THE ACTUAL
INTENSITY OF KILO BY THEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONSENSUS TRACKS...AND
NOT AS FAR EAST AS THE GFDL...HWRF...AND ECWMF.

THE DEPRESSION IS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND IN A
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT NEAR AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS.
THIS GENERAL ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...SO STRENGTHENING
APPEARS LIKELY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS AGAIN BEEN NUDGED A BIT
HIGHER TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE...BUT
STILL A BIT BELOW THE CONSENSUS MODELS AND WELL BELOW THE GFDL AND
HWRF.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 15.2N 160.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 16.0N 162.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 17.0N 164.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 17.6N 164.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 18.3N 164.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 19.3N 164.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 19.9N 163.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 20.6N 162.9W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[Alyono]

convection firing to the NE for the first time.

However, after closer examination of visible, I cannot see a closed circulation. Technically, this is an open wave now in all likelihood. However, I fully agree with keeping this as a TD since redevelopment is a certainty

[CrazyC83]

The models being farther east? That means right into the islands?

[Alyono]

The models being farther east? That means right into the islands?

the convection is farther east, not the models

[Yellow Evan]

The models being farther east? That means right into the islands?

Some models (GFS, GFDL, HWRF, JMA, ECMWF) shifted east at 12z, not so much at 18z.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS. Initialized the ridge a little weaker.

[Alyono]

Here is a big problem, little convergence

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Yellow Evan]

Here is a big problem, little convergence

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

No CCKW, but nothing downright toxic

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Glad the CPHC continues to show a turn toward the northeast toward the end of the period. A westward track makes very little sense given the upper-level setup.

Kilo has become better organized since yesterday, and this trend should continue as it enters a region with lighter mid-level shear. I only expect slow to steady intensification over the next 36 hours or so as the system works on establishing an inner core. Thereafter, a more rapid pace of development should take place. I expect Kilo to reach Category 4 intensity at peak.

[Kingarabian]

00z GFS is a bit more N.

[Alyono]

I disagree regarding the statement that this is better organized. Yesterday, we had a well defined circulation. Today, we have an open trough

[Yellow Evan]

I disagree regarding the statement that this is better organized. Yesterday, we had a well defined circulation. Today, we have an open trough

We don't have any proof this is open trough yet. Wait for Recon.

And structurally I have to agree while still somewhat poorly organized, looks better than it did yesterday.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS a little more WNW, but weaker.

[Alyono]

weak and west is the MU so far. Absolutely no intensification through Monday

[Alyono]

I disagree regarding the statement that this is better organized. Yesterday, we had a well defined circulation. Today, we have an open trough

We don't have any proof this is open trough yet. Wait for Recon.

And structurally I have to agree while still somewhat poorly organized, looks better than it did yesterday.

the final recon pass showed an open trough. No NW winds were found

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS thorugh 3 days. Weaker, but still shows a NE turn.