Global model runs discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Are you sure it doesn't have anything to do with this area?

thought the shear is high it is quite possible that a surface low could develop withing that area and once the shear relaxes as the models indicate should then we could see something. or even off the se florida coast as the cmc suggests.


i think talk of this area or the monsoon trough would be better brought up in the western carrib thread though.

[Hurricaneman]

What the 0zGFS is doing is putting the low all over the place after truncation, that is why once past truncation at 192hrs the model is unreliable and maybe even fantasy

[N2FSU]

12Z GFS rolling out now. Here is 102hrs (Still showing development in BOC):

[N2FSU]

12Z Euro: 144hrs

[N2FSU]

12Z Euro; 216 hrs

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening everyone,

I was looking at models for signs of tropical formation off Yucatan. But what caught my eye was the 18z GFS way out to the east, are the water temps warm enough to support a storm there this early?

[ROCK]

0Z GFS out 132hr.....not much to look at in the BOC but whatevers left of Barbara is sitting in there bouncing around.


http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_are ... 50_vort_ht


GFS out 159hr.....still in the BOC which seems highly improbable IMO....

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/list_files_are ... 50_vort_ht


interesting to note whats comes off of Africa developes in the MDR.....might get the A storm in the first week of June...

[ROCK]

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

GOM water is rebounding nicely from last week.

[ROCK]

the 0Z NOGAPS (NAVGEM) has Barbara dying over MX in the next 48 hours.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

the 0Z NOGAPS (NAVGEM) has Barbara dying over MX in the next 48 hours.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

maybe the case but the structure is holding together very well and is 8 hours ahead of emerging. quite possible it maintains TD into BOC tomorrow.

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS at 27 hrs; if Barbara survives the trek, which she looks like she's doing, this looks pretty accurate down in the BOC:

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS at 96hr:

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS at 216hr:

[N2FSU]

06Z GFS 228 hr (Sat. June 8); look out Pensacola!

[Cyclenall]

06Z GFS at 216hr:

It appears in this run Barbara bites the Gulf coast. This could be quite exciting because something I was thinking about yesterday was if Barb makes it in the BOC (which it now has amazingly according to ATCF) then the models showing nothing before could all be completely wrong. They all expected Barb to be gone so nothing spawned in the GOM or at least not much. Now if something intact is still there, who knows...uncharted territory .

[N2FSU]

12Z Euro at 120hrs:

[N2FSU]

12Z Euro; 240hrs

[N2FSU]

12Z GFS; 216 hrs. Much weaker than the 06Z and further east.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Despite the fact that the MJO, one of the primary drivers for tropical cyclogenesis in the early season, will be leaving our part of the world for the Indian Ocean and western Pacific, global models are consistent that we have to still watch for development.

Our first area of interest comes in 8-9 days off the Southeast coastline, as an area of low pressure gets cut-off and spins up over the Gulf Stream. This solution is depicted by the ECMWF, GFS, and CMC:





The second area of concern comes just a few days later on the GFS...it has been consistent with a strong trough over the eastern United States dragging the monsoon trough northward across the western Caribbean and allowing the development of an area of low pressure that tracks across the Yucatan Peninsula and spins up into a decent tropical cyclone.

Latest run:



The model itself has been consistent, but no others show much of anything yet. We'll have to wait and see.

Welcome to hurricane season.

[TheStormExpert]

From Crown Weathers Rob Lightbown on what the models are showing off the SE U.S. in the next 8-10 days.

One final observation of forecast guidance from this morning: The latest European and Canadian model guidance is showing some sort of a low pressure system to form at the end of a frontal system near the northeastern Florida coast and the Georgia coast in 8 to 10 days from now or right around next weekend. This will be something that will be monitored and see if the guidance continues to show this scenario.