EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
900 PM MDT FRI JUN 05 2015

Blanca appears to have become a little better organized during the
past few hours. The eye does not look quite as ragged although it
is becoming more cloud filled. Deep convection is doing a better
job of wrapping around the eye, but there is still some asymmetry
with very intense convection occurring within the southeastern
quadrant. As a result, Dvorak estimates have risen to T5.5/102 kt
from TAFB and T5.0/90 kt from SAB. However, since the Hurricane
Hunters found Blanca's intensity to be on the low end of the earlier
satellite estimates, the maximum winds are conservatively raised to
85 kt on this advisory.

The initial motion remains northwestward, or 315/9 kt. Mid-level
high pressure over northern Mexico should keep Blanca moving
northwestward in the short term, but the hurricane is forecast to
turn north-northwestward in 24 hours due to a shortwave trough
approaching from the west. This north-northwestward motion should
then continue until dissipation, bringing Blanca near or over the
southern Baja California peninsula in 48-72 hours. The track
guidance remains tightly clustered, with varying speeds being the
main issue, and the official track forecast is near the various
multi-model consensus models.

If Blanca is going to strengthen any further, it probably only has
another 24 hours to do so while vertical shear is low and sea
surface temperatures are over 26C. After 24 hours, a more hostile
environment should lead to fairly quick weakening, with Blanca
becoming a tropical storm between 36-48 hours while it approaches
the southern Baja California peninsula. The cyclone is then
expected to become a tropical depression by day 3 and dissipate
over the high terrain of the Baja California peninsula between days
4 and 5. The NHC intensity forecast follows a blend of the SHIPS
and LGEM models and is not much different from the previous
forecast.

Based on the latest forecast, a tropical storm warning would likely
be required for a portion of the southern Baja California peninsula
Saturday morning.

Moisture associated with Blanca is moving northward and could help
produce heavy rainfall over portions of southwestern Mexico during
the next day or so, especially in areas of mountainous terrain.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 16.1N 108.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 17.1N 109.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 18.6N 110.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 20.1N 110.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 21.9N 111.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 25.5N 112.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 28.4N 113.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Yellow Evan]

SAB was 4.5 and TAFB was 5.0 during Recon, right? Recon found 80 knot winds, in between those numbers. So, NHC logic if that is true IMO is not valid.

[Kingarabian]

I've never seen a high definition AMSU pass like this before.

[Yellow Evan]

Seems to have resumed weakening.

[Kingarabian]

Seems to have resumed weakening.

How so?

[Cyclenall]

Seems to have resumed weakening.

And here I was thinking it was about to increase its rate of intensification . Looks like a buzz-saw, pretty decent looking and intense convection is wrapping a bit more to the N quad (trying). The eyewall appears to be open on the NW quad and dry air is attacking it from that side but you can't see that very well outside of WV.

I thought that 7.0 from ADT was chuckle worthy, good ole' ADT.

[Yellow Evan]

Seems to have resumed weakening.

How so?

Eyewall re-opening and eye rapidly cooling.

For all I know, it could be another ERC.

[Kingarabian]

Seems to have resumed weakening.

How so?

Eyewall re-opening and eye rapidly cooling.

For all I know, it could be another ERC.

I didn't think that weird looking eye it currently has is serious for intensification to begin with. Looks like the -70C cloud tops are trying to wrap around in a circle again. We could see a nicer eye clear out.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

From here, this either intensifies or starts weakening. It probs has 18-14 hours of a good environment left.

[Kingarabian]

From here, this either intensifies or starts weakening. It probs has 18-14 hours of a good environment left.

The eye has cleared out in the last 2 frames with -70C tops beginning to wrap around the eye from the SW.

[Yellow Evan]

Might be worth watching if by some long shot, this can close off an eye around very cold cloud tops.


----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUN 2015 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 16:04:32 N Lon : 108:35:09 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 928.4mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.8 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km

Center Temp : -21.3C Cloud Region Temp : -75.7C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUN 2015 Time : 034500 UTC
Lat : 16:07:39 N Lon : 108:32:02 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 928.4mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 7.2 7.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : -10.9C Cloud Region Temp : -77.1C

Scene Type : EYE

lol.

ADT is feeling it.

[Yellow Evan]

cant see how the eye cleared out when it clearly appears open and adt @130 knts seen enough of this joke fooled me once shame on me fool me twice shame on you.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

No one is taking ADT literally but the upward trend is nice.

Eye isn't cleared out yet, and appears to have hit a dry slot, but as soon as I said it was weakening like an hour, it started looking good again.

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS peaks this in about 30 hours. The peak is getting pushed back again.

[Yellow Evan]

Date (mmddhhmm): 06060202
SATCON: MSLP = 953 hPa MSW = 115 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 115.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 100 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 250 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is -7.4 knots Source: MW

Member Estimates

ADT: 928 hPa 132 knots Scene: CDO Date: JUN060245
CIMSS AMSU: 966 hPa 86 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 06060016
SSMIS: 965 hPa 101 knots Date: 06060202
CIRA AMSU: 959 hPa 90 knots Date: 06060018

[Kingarabian]

cant see how the eye cleared out when it clearly appears open and adt @130 knts seen enough of this joke fooled me once shame on me fool me twice shame on you.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

No one is taking ADT literally but the upward trend is nice.

Eye isn't cleared out yet, and appears to have hit a dry slot, but as soon as I said it was weakening like an hour, it started looking good again.

-80c beginning to wrap around the eye.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUN 2015 Time : 041500 UTC
Lat : 16:04:48 N Lon : 108:41:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.7 / 928.4mb/132.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.7 7.1 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : -14.8C Cloud Region Temp : -76.8C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

Those -80C cloud tops continue to wrap around the eye and we've got 18 hours left of favorable conditions. That's bad. GFS might be on to something.

[Yellow Evan]

Also if we see some sort of intensification, expect your traditional eastward shift in the track like most storms near Baja.

[Kingarabian]

Fresh SSMIS pass taken 3 hours ago:



Considerably strengthened and it doesn't look finished.