WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

Huge weakness off the west coast.

Possible interaction with Loke is affecting it?

[Yellow Evan]

Normally I'd think this would be gone....

[Alyono]

far too weak to head to Hawaii. Ridge looks to be building back in at 90 hours.

I didn't expect any big changes even with the dropsonde data. >99% of data ingested in the models is satellite and radar. A few dropsondes were not going to significantly alter the large scale flow.

This is a >80% chance of a miss

now, if it were to hit, it would be a disaster. So interests in Hawaii need to continue to monitor as there is a slightly less than 20% chance of a major disaster happening

[Alyono]

may even be west of the 18Z. The ridge is clearly building in

[Yellow Evan]

Ridge a little weaker here actually, but it still sends the storm west.

[Kingarabian]

Begins moving west @ 108 hours.

Now we wait for the Euro and see if it shifts west as well.

[Kingarabian]

3 hours old, but the Navy website only showed it now:



Is that the MLC and LLC, or two LLC's?

[Alyono]

noticed something about the MU. It INSISTS this will be moving at 20 kts. It's almost as if it is building the displaced MLC to the surface, or it is building back to a native vortex location. While a miss is likely, the short term motion is BS

[Kingarabian]

noticed something about the MU. It INSISTS this will be moving at 20 kts. It's almost as if it is building the displaced MLC to the surface, or it is building back to a native vortex location. While a miss is likely, the short term motion is BS

I'm going to call a miss if Kilo is not a strong TS by Monday,

[Alyono]

the initial global models of keeping this a broad mess have proven to be correct

[Kingarabian]

the initial global models of keeping this a broad mess have proven to be correct

True. Wait and see game.

[Kingarabian]

Shear appears to be kicking again. Convection mass looks elongated once again.

[Yellow Evan]

Shear appears to be kicking again. Convection mass looks elongated once again.

CMISS shows very little shear. It's just trying to wrap convection around IMO.

[Kingarabian]

Kilo is rumbling Hawaii. Lot's of Thunder.

[srainhoutx]

Yes it is. Thunderstorm nearby in Waikiki Beach.

[Alyono]

BIG west shift in GFDL. Less NE motion and more northerly. More typical for this time of year

Getting very close to an all clear. Think I'm going to worry about the resumption of F1

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFDL shifts west, though I'm not sure if many in Hawaii would be comfortable with a Category 5 a couple hundred miles away.

[Kingarabian]

The elephant in the room goes live soon.

[Alyono]

The elephant in the room goes live soon.

due to the windsheild wipering of the EC, I am not even going to consider its guidance. It has not had a handle on the environment. Been more useless than the Canadian

[Kingarabian]

The elephant in the room goes live soon.

due to the windsheild wipering of the EC, I am not even going to consider its guidance. It has not had a handle on the environment. Been more useless than the Canadian

To be fair, the GFS windshield wiped the heck out of this storm as well. The GFS is basically now showing what the Euro showed earlier yesterday.