EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

[supercane4867]

Let's see if recon find it even stronger at next pass

[Hammy]

Did this just break the record low EPAC pressure?

[Kingarabian]

Did this just break the record low EPAC pressure?

You bet.

[1900hurricane]

Bravo for the 8.2.1 ADT. It's the only satellite analysis to reveal the true intensity of Patricia

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 917.8mb/146.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.3 8.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -8.1C Cloud Region Temp : -82.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Not sure I agree. Going by the raws, 8.4.1's 7.4 translates to an intensity of around 155 kt, which seems more reasonable than somewhere about 170 kt that an 8.3 would theoretically equate to. As for final Ts, both were consistently hamstrung by constraints for some weird reason, making this a case where the raws were actually more representative.

[Hurricaneman]

Did this just break the record low EPAC pressure?

Yep and by a lot

[Ntxw]

Did this just break the record low EPAC pressure?

You bet.

Shattered it by 10 mbar. Not impossible next pass may find stronger.

[northjaxpro]

Did this just break the record low EPAC pressure?

Yes, by all indications from Recon data.

[CrazyC83]

Now can it chase down Wilma's hemispheric record?

Linda was just left in Patricia's dust.

[1900hurricane]

28°C inside the eye per VDM. I believe this is the second highest measured eye temp by recon in W hemisphere only behind Rita

Tips's was 30C IIRc.

Correct. Super Typhoon Rita from 1978 is the highest I can think of off the top of my head with a 31*C 700 mb temp.

[neospaceblue]

I think by Western Hemisphere they meant Atlantic & East/Central Pacific.

[Kingarabian]

...CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE PATRICIA STRENGTHENS EVEN MORE...
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC LANDFALL IN SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1230 AM CDT...0530 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 105.3W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...892 MB...26.34 INCHES

[cycloneye]

Special Advisory


HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
0530 UTC FRI OCT 23 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN BLAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 105.3W AT 23/0530Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 892 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 160 KT WITH GUSTS TO 195 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 120SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 105.3W AT 23/0530Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N 104.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W
MAX WIND 160 KT...GUSTS 195 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 160 KT...GUSTS 195 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 105.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[txwatcher91]

Eye looks to be slowly contracting and tightening based off satellite and recon data. They're out there while this storm is peaking, I remember with Wilma the eye was like 2 miles wide at the peak and this one may do something similar before an EWRC takes place. That could be the good news for those in the path, however, if one starts before landfall it would weaken significantly.

[Hammy]

I believe the wind and pressure are identical to the official records for the 1935 Keys hurricane now.

[supercane4867]

28°C inside the eye per VDM. I believe this is the second highest measured eye temp by recon in W hemisphere only behind Rita

Tips's was 30C IIRc.

Correct. Super Typhoon Rita from 1978 is the highest I can think of off the top of my head with a 31*C 700 mb temp.

Although not well-known, Hurricane Rita of 2005 also had an eye temp of 31°C. You can find in VDM archive

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015
1230 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

The purpose of this special advisory is to update for a significant
increase in the intensity of the hurricane. Reports from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters indicate that Patricia has intensified at an
incredible rate since yesterday. The plane measured peak 700-mb
flight level winds of 179 kt in the northeastern eyewall, and this
may be an unprecedented value for a tropical cyclone. Using the 90
percent adjustment value to convert this to a surface wind speed
yields an intensity estimate of 160 kt, which is tied with eastern
north Pacific Hurricane Linda of 1997 for the strongest on record.
A dropsonde released into the eye measured a sea-level pressure of
894 mb with 25 kt of wind. Adjusting this pressure for the surface
winds (i.e. the drop did not land into the actual center of the eye)
gives an estimated minimum central pressure of 892 mb, which breaks
the record for the lowest pressure of an east Pacific hurricane.
Some fluctuations in intensity are likely today due to eyewall
replacements, but Patricia should maintain category 5 status through
landfall this afternoon or evening.

No changes are made to the track forecast from the previous
advisory.

This special advisory replaces the 0600 UTC intermediate advisory
for Patricia.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the
hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely
dangerous major hurricane this afternoon or evening. Preparations
to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be
completed as tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect
the area.

2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is
likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the
Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing
into Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0530Z 16.5N 105.3W 160 KT 185 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W 160 KT 185 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W 160 KT 185 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[supercane4867]

They are holding 160kt all the way to landfall...

[supercane4867]

The plane measured peak 700-mb
flight level winds of 179 kt in the northeastern eyewall, and this
may be an unprecedented value for a tropical cyclone.

[northjaxpro]

Eye looks to be slowly contracting and tightening based off satellite and recon data. They're out there while this storm is peaking, I remember with Wilma the eye was like 2 miles wide at the peak and this one may do something similar before an EWRC takes place. That could be the good news for those in the path, however, if one starts before landfall it would weaken significantly.

Absolutely. This would be the best case scenario for the people along the SW Mexico coast. I am hopeful Patricia is peaking now and will weaken some tomorrow with an EWRC. But, even if this occurs, this is still going to be extremely bad as Patricia will be at at least a strong Cat 3 at landfall or low end Cat 4.

[Hurricaneman]

They are holding 160kt all the way to landfall...

Could be like Haiyan was for the Phillipenes for Puerto Vallerta from this one so say a prayer for that area tonight and hopefully an ERC happens this morning so to negate some of the effects of Patricia

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