EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

#481 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 12:32 am

WOW.

Eat my words about it weakening. Shows what I know.

#482 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 12:36 am

Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: WOW.

Eat my words about it weakening. Shows what I know.

As soon as that the eye warmed up again RIGHT AFTER you said it's cooling and those -80c began to wrap... I knew it. Lol. Interesting storm.

IR Imagery, MW imagery, and Dovrak all support a MH upgrade.

Think the NHC has to upgrade.

#483 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 12:38 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote::uarrow: WOW.

Eat my words about it weakening. Shows what I know.

As soon as that the eye warmed up again RIGHT AFTER you said it's cooling and those -80c began to wrap... I knew it. Lol. Interesting storm.

IR Imagery, MW imagery, and Dovrak all support a MH upgrade.

Think the NHC has to upgrade.

Probs will come down to what subjective SAB/TAFB estimates say. If I were to classify at 5z myself, I'd give it a 6.5 but that's a little liberal, and could see a 5.5 or 6.0.

#484 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 12:41 am

This is hilarious.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUN 2015 Time : 044500 UTC
Lat : 16:07:59 N Lon : 108:38:17 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 923.3mb/137.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.3 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : -7.2C Cloud Region Temp : -77.5C

Scene Type : EYE

#485 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 12:44 am

Still 85?

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 060534
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
HURRICANE BLANCA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 22A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
1200 AM MDT SAT JUN 06 2015

...BLANCA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR ON SUNDAY...

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM MDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 108.6W
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* La Paz to Santa Fe Mexico, including Cabo San Lucas

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1200 AM MDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Blanca was located
near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 108.6 West. Blanca is moving
toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Saturday. A turn toward the north-
northwest is forecast by Saturday evening. On the forecast track,
the center of Blanca will approach the southern Baja California
peninsula on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. No significant change in strength is expected through
Saturday. Weakening is forecast Saturday night and Sunday, and
Blanca should weaken to a tropical storm as it approaches the
southern Baja California peninsula.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center, and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
by Sunday morning.

SURF: Swells generated by Blanca are affecting the coast of
southwestern Mexico, the Pacific coast of the Baja California
peninsula, and the southern Gulf of California. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
For additional information, please consult products from your local
weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

#486 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 12:44 am

#487 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 12:45 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Still 85?

Dvorak numbers not out yet, probably why.

#488 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 12:46 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Dvorak numbers not out yet, probably why.

Sounds like something I would say

But yea, probs. Hoping SATCON/AMSU data would be enough for another few knots though.

#489 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 12:48 am

We're not alone.

Ryan Maue ‏@RyanMaue 7m7 minutes ago

Hurricane Blanca satellite presentation impressive ... T 6.5 & increasing ... Cat 4 again seems likely

#490 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 12:48 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Dvorak numbers not out yet, probably why.

Sounds like something I would say

But yea, probs. Hoping SATCON/AMSU data would be enough for another few knots though.

Almost said 'probs' instead of probably.

#491 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 12:51 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Almost said 'probs' instead of probably.

Oh great, coping my dialect now

Anyhow, new frame shows the cloud cloud tops on the west side now.

#492 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 12:51 am

Man...

Never ever seen a Epac storm wrap -80c cloud tops around an eye before.

#493 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 12:52 am

Next step to becoming something amazing again is IMO the eye becoming more circular.

#494 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 12:53 am

Special Advisory anyone?

#495 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 12:54 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Kingarabian wrote:
Almost said 'probs' instead of probably.

Oh great, coping my dialect now

Anyhow, new frame shows the cloud cloud tops on the west side now.

Lol just shows how much time I spend on here.

#496 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:07 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Special Advisory anyone?

Doubt it. I'm really confused why the NHC had it at 85kts in the intermediate advisory.

#497 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:07 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Special Advisory anyone?

Doubt it. I'm really confused why the NHC had it at 85kts in the intermediate advisory.

Yea, I'm pretty confident this is at minimum 90-95 knots.

#498 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:12 am

Can't stop laughing.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUN 2015 Time : 051500 UTC
Lat : 16:11:11 N Lon : 108:35:10 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 923.3mb/137.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.4 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : -2.4C Cloud Region Temp : -77.1C

#499 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:14 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Can't stop laughing.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUN 2015 Time : 051500 UTC
Lat : 16:11:11 N Lon : 108:35:10 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 923.3mb/137.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.4 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : -2.4C Cloud Region Temp : -77.1C

Perfect world it makes sense. Look at the estimated Cloud Region Temperature.

#500 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:16 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:Can't stop laughing.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUN 2015 Time : 051500 UTC
Lat : 16:11:11 N Lon : 108:35:10 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 923.3mb/137.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.4 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : -2.4C Cloud Region Temp : -77.1C

Perfect world it makes sense. Look at the estimated Cloud Region Temperature.

ADT works well in symmetrical hurricanes, but for the reason it puts so much weight on the eye/center temp is why it can soemtime be too bullish or in a few cases, a little conservative (like Igor).

EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

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