Global model runs discussion

[wxman57]

Since my favorite models site went behind a paywall ( ) I'm going to just assume the models have backed off from this storm because this thread has gotten very quiet.

You are correct.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS shows lower pressures near Africa at 192 for the last several runs so it stands the chance there might just be a chance of something forming after that is possible with the MJO in phase one, but something looks screwy with the GFS depiction of the MJO sending it back to phase 8 later in the run

The 18z GFS coming in and it shows this area with a 1009 low developing SW of the Cape Verde islands at 168 which is moving up in range, lets see if it moves closer in range in subsequent runs

[Ntxw]

The GFS shows lower pressures near Africa at 192 for the last several runs so it stands the chance there might just be a chance of something forming after that is possible with the MJO in phase one, but something looks screwy with the GFS depiction of the MJO sending it back to phase 8 later in the run

The 18z GFS coming in and it shows this area with a 1009 low developing SW of the Cape Verde islands at 168 which is moving up in range, lets see if it moves closer in range in subsequent runs

I wouldn't trust the GFS in this case. The MJO is a moving wave when it is strong and typically does not move backwards. When a model depicts such a scenario they are usually confused due to enhanced convection in this case activity in the EPAC. It's confusing this with the MJO wave. The MJO only weakens to the dead circle and the loop back or keeps on moving, it does not go backwards.

[Stormlover2012]

I won't buy anything until euro is on board!!

[cycloneye]

The TUTT trough has to weaken and lift north to then allow things to turn favorable in MDR and Caribbean and in spite of the strong MJO pulse rolling thru the basin, none of the models are showing much enthusiasm about development through mid-July. The very long range CFS showing several developments in July are going down the drain and that is why long range forecasts are only for entertainment as mother nature rules and changes constantly. I think we may have to wait until late July to see things heat up. I voted for 2 in the July poll but maybe it may be only 1?

[Aric Dunn]

That wave in eastern carrib is very impressive appears to possibly have weak circ... of course shear way to high atm... likely the wave the models were picking up on. still a possibility of western carrib development.

[Hurricaneman]

The TUTT trough has to weaken and lift north to then allow things to turn favorable in MDR and Caribbean and in spite of the strong MJO pulse rolling thru the basin, none of the models are showing much enthusiasm about development through mid-July. The very long range CFS showing several developments in July are going down the drain and that is why long range forecasts are only for entertainment as mother nature rules and changes constantly. I think we may have to wait until late July to see things heat up. I voted for 2 in the July poll but maybe it may be only 1?

2004 is the perfect analog due to 2004 having a similar MJO pulse for the atlantic at the same time as this year but having alot of shear basically in the same spot and it looks like ENSO 3-4 is warming up while ENSO 1-2 are staying cold so basically a possible El Nino Madoki which tends to lead to landfalls from Florida to Texas so this could get ugly when August comes

This also looks like it could be a big Cape Verde Season with these strong tropical waves already and the fact the shear is low from Africa to 45W, and the other semi favorable area is the BOC as of now so we'll see how that evolves, maybe the TUTT doesnt move much and leads to a much lesser season than everybody thought

[SFLcane]

The TUTT trough has to weaken and lift north to then allow things to turn favorable in MDR and Caribbean and in spite of the strong MJO pulse rolling thru the basin, none of the models are showing much enthusiasm about development through mid-July. The very long range CFS showing several developments in July are going down the drain and that is why long range forecasts are only for entertainment as mother nature rules and changes constantly. I think we may have to wait until late July to see things heat up. I voted for 2 in the July poll but maybe it may be only 1?

2004 is the perfect analog due to 2004 having a similar MJO pulse for the atlantic at the same time as this year but having alot of shear basically in the same spot and it looks like ENSO 3-4 is warming up while ENSO 1-2 are staying cold so basically a possible El Nino Madoki which tends to lead to landfalls from Florida to Texas so this could get ugly when August comes

This also looks like it could be a big Cape Verde Season with these strong tropical waves already and the fact the shear is low from Africa to 45W, and the other semi favorable area is the BOC as of now so we'll see how that evolves, maybe the TUTT doesnt move much and leads to a much lesser season than everybody thought

The overall tropical atl is hostile now which is normal for this time of the year. I was thinking 2-3 named storms possible in july but not so sure about that now. One thing that has me concerned a bit is the over all sypnotic pattern come august/sept which quite different from recent years. Could see less storms recurving out to sea.

[sunnyday]

It seems as if we read of dire predictions of many, many storms most years prior to the beginning of the season. This year has been particularly that way. And now--is it looking like things won't go that way? Is it not going to be a terribly active year in spite of the discussions of the SST's, El Nino, etc.? Are we going to be fortunate again? We can hope...
Thank you for your opinions?

[BigB0882]

Hyper active years often do not get underway until August. We can have zero storms in July and still be extremely hyperactive. We aren't even in July so this is all a little funny to me.

[OuterBanker]

It seems as if we read of dire predictions of many, many storms most years prior to the beginning of the season. This year has been particularly that way. And now--is it looking like things won't go that way? Is it not going to be a terribly active year in spite of the discussions of the SST's, El Nino, etc.? Are we going to be fortunate again? We can hope...
Thank you for your opinions?

Latest example is 2004. Alex named Aug 1. That year there were numerous "season over" posts in July.

We all know how "slow" 2004 turned out to be

[sunnyday]

True. If hurricane season is nothing else, it is unpredictable at the beginning. It's just that some of the dire predictions seem to be going the other way. Maybe? Who knows? Let's just hope for the best.

[NDG]

After all we may still see some weak development in the BOC late next week, according to the GFS with a track towards northern MX or southern TX.




GFS forecasts an anticyclone to develope over it:


However, the GFS has no other support from other models, not even the crazy Uncle, but is not like it had model support when we saw Barry.
The GFS also does not have it deepening much than the image above shows.

[cycloneye]

As soon the EPAC turns quiet,the North Atlantic will come to life. As July arrives,the Tropical Waves will emerge West Africa like a parade and more stronger as time goes by. The question is if the favorable pattern will arrive to the North Atlantic sooner or it will take a few weeks to turn things favorable in the basin. So far the models continue quiet with GFS only showing a few waves moving thru the MDR.

[Aric Dunn]

so i guess the question of if a trough was going to be in place to lift anything that had developed in carrib north is resolved... anything that would have formed (like the cmc last week) would have north and then nne given the trough in the northern gulf atm...

[NDG]

True, anything that would have formed by now would had been lifted up by the digging trough, but things are too hostile in the NW Caribbean and GOM so in the short term nothing is going to form with the trough still digging down as I write this across the MS River valley.
UL environment is not going to improve untill the trough starts lifting later on during the week and that is when it may give the chance for anticyclonic UL ridge to move north towards the southern GOM but with the trough lifting by then and the Atlantic ridge moving in from the east any development in the BOC will move NW towards MX/TX versus NE towards central gulf coast.

[N2FSU]

00Z CMC has a weak low in the northern Gulf on 4th of July (114hr):

[Hurricaneman]

The TUTT would have to move to get any real tropical development so thats why the models are showing very little

[N2FSU]

00Z CMC at 120hr:

[tailgater]

NDG wrote
However, the GFS has no other support from other models, not even the crazy Uncle, but is not like it had model support when we saw Barry.
The GFS also does not have it deepening much than the image above shows.

Well it's got a little bit of support