EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

#501 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:19 am

New frame in. Clear as a day 6.5, which will break constraints.

If the CMG can wrap around, Cat 5 here we come.

#502 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:20 am

Yellow Evan wrote:ADT works well in symmetrical hurricanes, but for the reason it puts so much weight on the eye/center temp is why it can soemtime be too bullish or in a few cases, a little conservative (like Igor).

If it weren't for that impressive microwave pass I wouldn't be too high on it after what recon showed today.

Latest frame shows the eye consolidating and beginning to warm to the north.

#503 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:22 am

did another at 0545 on GOES-E using an ir-rgbv enhancement (which is what I always use to make in house estimates.

gave it a 5.0, but I can understand a 5.5 now. Would not go any higher until that eye warms a bit more

#504 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:22 am

Honestly, cloud tops wise, this is the 2nd most impressed I've been with an EPAC hurricane after Rick 09.

#505 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:23 am

Alyono wrote:did another at 0545 on GOES-E using an ir-rgbv enhancement (which is what I always use to make in house estimates.

gave it a 5.0, but I can understand a 5.5 now. Would not go any higher until that eye warms a bit more

OW eye, W cloud tops and W ring would yield roughly a 6.0-6.5, if I'm reading it correctly.

#506 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:25 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:ADT works well in symmetrical hurricanes, but for the reason it puts so much weight on the eye/center temp is why it can soemtime be too bullish or in a few cases, a little conservative (like Igor).

If it weren't for that impressive microwave pass I wouldn't be too high on it after what recon showed today.

Latest frame shows the eye consolidating and beginning to warm to the north.

Yea, I was pretty pessimistic till I said it was weakening, then BOOM, here we go and you posted that microwave.

EPAC is having one of those moments that I remember it as.

#507 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:27 am

Yellow Evan wrote:
Alyono wrote:did another at 0545 on GOES-E using an ir-rgbv enhancement (which is what I always use to make in house estimates.

gave it a 5.0, but I can understand a 5.5 now. Would not go any higher until that eye warms a bit more

OW eye, W cloud tops and W ring would yield roughly a 6.0-6.5, if I'm reading it correctly.

One thing I have noted through the years, when the eye is cloud filled, the aircraft data often finds a slightly lower intensity. Thus, the in house estimates do punish TCs for not having clear eyes more so than is indicated in Dvorak's paper

the microwave pass, however, yields a higher intensity. That pass was more akin to a solid 5.5, pushing a 6.0

#508 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:28 am

TXPZ27 KNES 060617
TCSENP

A. 02E (BLANCA)

B. 06/0600Z

C. 16.4N

D. 108.5W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN B AND SURROUNDED BY W RESULTING
IN A DT OF 6.0 AFTER 0.5 IS ADDED AS AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET AND PT ARE
5.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

...TURK

Is the white ring not wide enough? Always seem to overestimate those things.

#509 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:31 am

Alyono wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:
Alyono wrote:did another at 0545 on GOES-E using an ir-rgbv enhancement (which is what I always use to make in house estimates.

gave it a 5.0, but I can understand a 5.5 now. Would not go any higher until that eye warms a bit more

OW eye, W cloud tops and W ring would yield roughly a 6.0-6.5, if I'm reading it correctly.

One thing I have noted through the years, when the eye is cloud filled, the aircraft data often finds a slightly lower intensity. Thus, the in house estimates do punish TCs for not having clear eyes more so than is indicated in Dvorak's paper

the microwave pass, however, yields a higher intensity. That pass was more akin to a solid 5.5, pushing a 6.0

Okay, thanks. I agree if the NHC brought Recon in now, they'd find a Cat 3, but using what they use in his paper yields a 6.0 or 6.5 (depending if it is a black or white ring).

#510 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:32 am

That eye clears and we may be looking at a cat. 5 hurricane.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#511 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:34 am

That'd be very odd if this ended up becoming a Cat 5.

It's not that far off. Any warming of the eye to WMG may due the trick, but you have constraints, and idk if they'll break them or not.

#512 Postby **Alyono** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:36 am

just got the latest frame in. Revise my IR estimate from a 5.0 to a 5.5

#513 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:39 am

Yellow Evan wrote:Honestly, cloud tops wise, this is the 2nd most impressed I've been with an EPAC hurricane after Rick 09.

Same here. Rare. WPAC material.

#514 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:40 am

Mind is still blown.

#515 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:41 am

This is why you never write an EPAC hurricane off.

#516 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:41 am

Yellow Evan wrote:

Mind is still blown.

Has like what, another 18 hours left?

#517 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:42 am

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUN 2015 Time : 054500 UTC
Lat : 16:20:25 N Lon : 108:44:33 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.1 / 917.6mb/143.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.1 7.5 7.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 20 km

Center Temp : -3.6C Cloud Region Temp : -77.5C

Scene Type : EYE

OMG.

#518 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:43 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:

Mind is still blown.

Has like what, another 18 hours left?

12-18ish, yea. Maybe a little more.

#519 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:44 am

ADT is not messing around LOL

#520 Postby **Yellow Evan** » Sat Jun 06, 2015 1:44 am

ATCF yet to come out. NHC prbos thinking long and hard over this.

EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

Re: Re:

Re:

Re: Re:

Re: Re:

Re: Re:

Re:

Re: EPAC: BLANCA - Hurricane

Re: EPAC: BLANCA - Hurricane

Re: EPAC: BLANCA - Hurricane

Who is online