WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
1100 AM HST MON AUG 24 2015

THE CENTER OF KILO APPEARS TO BE UNDER A RECENT BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION. OBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSIS INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGED FROM 2.0...30 KT...FROM PHFO...AND 2.5...35 KT...FROM SAB
AND JTWC. BASED ON ITS CURRENT APPEARANCE WE HAVE KEPT KILO AS A 30
KT DEPRESSION WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340 AT 6 KT. KILO IS TRACKING AROUND
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE
ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AND KILO WILL BE LEFT IN A LARGE
AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS AT DAYS 2 AND 3. AT DAYS 4 AND
5...DEEP LAYER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED NORTH OF
KILO...FORCING THE SYSTEM BACK ON A WESTWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT
FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH LIES
BETWEEN THE HWRF AND GFDL ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE TRACK AND THE
GLOBAL AND CONSENSUS MODELS WHICH LIE TO THE LEFT.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST BUT REMAINS SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING. WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND RELAXING SHEAR IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. KILO IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH 96 HOURS WHEN KILO IS
FORECAST TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH. ON DAYS 4 AND 5...THE
INTENSIFICATION TREND MAY BE ARRESTED AS KILO BEGINS TO EXPERIENCE
MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. THE LATEST FORECAST FOLLOWS DOWN THE MIDDLE
OF MOST GUIDANCE AND IS LOWER THAN HWFI AND GFDI BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN SHIPS AND AVNI.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 16.7N 167.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 17.5N 168.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 18.3N 168.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 19.0N 168.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 19.4N 168.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 19.8N 169.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 20.2N 170.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 20.5N 171.9W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA41 PHFO 250250
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 PM HST MON AUG 24 2015

THE SATELLITE REPRESENTATION OF KILO HAS ONCE AGAIN DETERIORATED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL HAS EMERGED
NORTHEAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION AND APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED
FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY A 2119 UTC
SCATTEROMETER PASS WHICH SHOWS AN ELONGATED LOW WITH ONLY 25 KT
WINDS CONFINED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS. OBJECTIVE
DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSIS INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGED FROM 2.0...30
KT...FROM PHFO...TO 2.5...35 KT...FROM SAB AND JTWC. BASED ON ITS
CURRENT APPEARANCE AND THE RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS...WE WILL MAKE
KILO A 25 KT DEPRESSION WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360 AT 4 KT. KILO IS TRACKING AROUND
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED JUST TO
THE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS THE
ANTICYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...AND KILO WILL BE LEFT IN A LARGE
AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS THROUGH DAY 2. MOST RELIABLE TRACK
GUIDANCE SHOW A SHARP TURN TO THE WEST BEGINNING AROUND DAY 3 WITH
A WESTWARD TRACK FOR DAYS 4 AND 5. THIS IS DUE TO DEEP LAYER RIDGING
THAT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ESTABLISHED NORTH OF KILO...FORCING THE
SYSTEM BACK ON A WESTWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT THROUGH DAY 2 AND THEN SHIFTED TO
THE LEFT FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THIS TRACK FOLLOWED CLOSELY WITH
GFDL AND HWRF BUT REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF THE GLOBAL AND CONSENSUS
MODELS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE A CHALLENGE. LATEST SHEAR
ANALYSIS FROM UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE BETWEEN 13 KT
AND 15 KT OF NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THIS IS DUE TO A SECOND
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES TO THE WEST OF KILO. THIS
APPEARS TO BE THE REASON FOR THE SYSTEM REMAINING DISORGANIZED EVEN
THROUGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 29C ALONG THE ENTIRE
FORECAST TRACK. SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL
EVENTUALLY RELAX WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE CURRENT FORECAST STRENGTHENS
KILO TO A TROPICAL STORM IN 36 HOURS WITH SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING
THEREAFTER. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY WITH
SHIPS...AVNI AND EMX2 GUIDANCE WHICH LIES WELL BELOW HWFI...GFDI
AND IVCN WHICH HAVE BEEN ON THE HIGH SIDE FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS.

WITH KILO REMAINING WEAK AND HAVING MOVED NORTH OF THE LATITUDE OF
JOHNSTON ISLAND...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED WITH
THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE. HOWEVER SOME HEAVY SHOWERS MAY OCCUR IN THEIR
VICINITY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 17.4N 167.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 18.1N 167.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 18.8N 167.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 19.3N 167.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 19.6N 167.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 19.7N 168.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 19.6N 170.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 19.6N 172.7W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Extratropical94]

Kilo remains at 25 knots.
CP, 03, 2015082512, , BEST, 0, 184N, 1673W, 25, 1006, TD

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 AM HST TUE AUG 25 2015

KILO HAS BEEN VERY POORLY ORGANIZED ACCORDING TO INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY MOST OF TONIGHT. THE COMPLETELY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ WAS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY UNTIL
JUST A COUPLE OF HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO BE NEW
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND FROM THE SOUTH TO NEAR THE APPARENT LLCC
AS THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE IS BEING SENT. EVEN THOUGH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CLOSE TO THE LLCC NOW...THERE IS NO SIGN OF
IMPROVING OUTFLOW...SO IT IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT KILO IS UNDERGOING
RAPID CHANGES AT THE MOMENT. THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS ESTIMATES FOR
ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE ABOUT 015 DEGREES AT 10-12 KT.
THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSIS CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE 1.5/25 KT FROM SAB...JTWC AND PHFO. THE LATEST
UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE WAS AN UNREALISTIC 2.8/41 KT. BASED ON THE
CURRENT DVORAK FIXES...WE WILL MAINTAIN KILO AS A 25 KT TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360 DEGREES/03 KT. THIS SLOW FORWARD
MOTION IS DUE TO KILO MOVING INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT TO THE
WEST OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WEAK STEERING WILL LIKELY
BE THE CASE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AFTER 24 HOURS...MOST OF
THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A NEW MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
NORTH OF KILO. AS THIS HAPPENS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD START TRACKING
TOWARD THE WEST...OR POSSIBLY THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...AT A GRADUALLY
INCREASING FORWARD SPEED DURING DAYS 2 THROUGH 5. AS A RESULT OF
THIS RECONFIGURATION OF THE FUTURE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT IN THE
VICINITY OF KILO...THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
SHARP TURN AND AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
STARTING IN 36 HOURS. SINCE THIS HAS BEEN THE SECOND ROUND OF
GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS THIS MOTION...THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN
NUDGED TOWARD THE LEFT CLOSER TO THE NORTHERNMOST TRACKS...WHICH ARE
STILL THE GFDL AND HWRF. THE GLOBAL MODELS...AS WELL AS THE
CONSENSUS MODELS...CONTINUE TO BE WELL SOUTH OF OUR LATEST FORECAST
TRACK BEYOND 36 HOURS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE
LATEST TRENDS IN THE SATELLITE DATA MIGHT FINALLY VERIFY THE OUTPUT
FROM THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE PREVIOUS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME SLOW INTENSIFICATION STARTING
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK IS OVER SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 29C. THE MOST RECENT ANALYSIS FROM
CIRA ALSO SHOWS AMPLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE TRACK. THE SHIPS
OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RELAX
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES KILO
WILL BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN IN 36 HOURS WITH SOME SLOW
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH DAY 5. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
CLOSELY THE SHIPS AND ICON GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 18.5N 167.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 18.7N 167.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 18.8N 167.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 18.8N 167.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 18.7N 168.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 18.5N 169.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 18.4N 171.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 18.3N 174.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

[galaxy401]

Forecasts keep saying the shear is going to relax but it seems like it never has...

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
1100 AM HST TUE AUG 25 2015

KILO REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION IS UNDERWAY NEAR THE ASSUMED
LLCC...SO WE SHALL SEE IF THIS HAS ANY APPRECIABLE EFFECT ON THE
SYSTEM AS HAS BEEN ANTICIPATED FOR AWHILE. FOR NOW...SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 1.5 FROM PHFO AND JTWC...AND 2.0 FROM
SAB...SO WE WILL RETAIN A 25 KT INITIAL INTENSITY.

KILO NOW APPEARS TO BE NEARLY STATIONARY. VERY LITTLE MOTION...
PERHAPS A SLOW NORTHWARD DRIFT...IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR TERM AS
KILO IS WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. THE MODELS INSIST
THAT KILO WILL START TO TAKE A SLOW U-TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE
12 TO 36 HOUR TIME FRAME AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CYCLONE. IN THE LONGER RANGE...
THIS MID LEVEL HIGH WILL SHIFT FARTHER WEST...ALLOWING KILO
TO RESUME A SLIGHTLY FASTER WESTWARD MOTION BETWEEN DAYS 2 AND 4.
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...KILO MAY START TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST ONCE AGAIN AS WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPS NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO
THE SOUTH AT ALL TIME STEPS EXCEPT AT TAU 120. THIS IS STILL TO THE
NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. NOTE THAT IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH
MORE OF AN ADDITIONAL SHIFT SOUTH IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK TO
REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH...ONCE AGAIN...FOR JOHNSTON ISLAND.

DESPITE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 29C ALONG THE ENTIRE FORECAST
TRACK...KILO IS DEALING WITH NOT ONLY ITS OWN LOW-LEVEL
DISORGANIZATION BUT ALSO 10 TO 15 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR FROM A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE LOCATED NEAR 19N 171W. THIS SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO RELAX AS KILO BEGINS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...AND
SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS THEN EXPECTED. STARTING IN ABOUT 48
HOURS...THE GFS SHOWS A DIGGING TROUGH NORTHWEST OF KILO STARTING TO
IMPART WESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM...BUT OTHER GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A
WEAKER TROUGH AND LESS SHEAR. EVEN WITH THE SHEAR...THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES A SLOW INTENSIFICATION TREND DURING THIS PERIOD
WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE ASSUMING KILO CAN FINALLY CONSOLIDATE
DEEP CONVECTION AROUND A LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AS WELL AS
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF THE SHEAR IS INDEED WEAKER THAN
EXPECTED...THE INTENSITY FORECAST MAY BE CONSERVATIVE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 18.5N 167.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 18.6N 167.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 18.6N 167.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 18.3N 167.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 17.9N 168.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 17.5N 171.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 17.8N 173.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 18.5N 175.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[1900hurricane]

The 12Z GEFS mean actually keeps Kilo as some sort of identifiable entity all the way through hour 384. That would be wild if Kilo actually stuck around that long.

[euro6208]

Meet 901 mb Super Typhoon Kilo...

[Yellow Evan]

TXPN41 PHFO 261153
TCSNP1

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1155 UTC WED AUG 26 2015

A. Tropical depression kilo.

B. 26/1130Z.

C. 18.8°N.

D. 167.8°W.

E. Goes-15.

F. T2.5/2.5/d1.0/24 hrs.

G. Eir/ir/animation.

H. Remarks: LLCC relocated north and west based on 0808Z ascat pass. LLCC within 3/4 degree of deepest convection, yielding a data t of 2.5. MET and PT agree. Final T based on all three.

I. Addl positions none.

$$
POWELL

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA41 PHFO 260857
TCDCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
1100 PM HST TUE AUG 25 2015

DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/ OF KILO DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...
ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT MUCH BANDING STRUCTURE APPARENT WITH MOST OF
THE CONVECTION REMAINING WEST AND SOUTH OF THE LLCC. OUTFLOW HAS
IMPROVED IN ALL DIRECTIONS...AND UW-CIMSS WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS NOW
SHOWS VERY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF LESS THAN 5 KT OVER THE
CYCLONE. DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT T2.5/35KT
FROM HFO/SAB...AND T2.0/30KT FROM JTWC. KILO MAY ALREADY BE A
TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN...BUT GIVEN THE PAST HISTORY OF THIS
SYSTEM WOULD PREFER TO SEE DEEP CONVECTION PERSIST OVER THE LLCC
FOR A BIT LONGER BEFORE UPGRADING...AND WILL MAINTAIN KILO AS A
30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE RECENT DVORAK FIXES AS WELL AS A 0452 UTC WINDSAT PASS APPEAR
TO INDICATE THAT THE EXPECTED SOUTHWEST MOTION HAS NOW COMMENCED...
AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 240/04 KT.
THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TRACK PHILOSOPHY
WITH THIS CYCLE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD A STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF KILO...FORCING THE CYCLONE
INTO A SLOW SOUTHWEST MOTION DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST BY 48 AND 72 HOURS. THE RELIABLE
TRACK MODELS HAVE REMAINED REASONABLY CONSISTENT FOR THE PAST FEW
CYCLES...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
THE SOUTH CLOSER TO THE TVCN TRACK CONSENSUS THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS. BEYOND 72 HOURS...KILO IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE PREVIOUS TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE NEW TVCN CONSENSUS FOR THE LATER FORECAST PERIODS...AND LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CHALLENGING. KILO WILL BE MOVING
OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 29C WITH AMPLE OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT THROUGH THE NEXT 120 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS NOW SHOW
RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS WELL. ON THE OTHER HAND...KILO HAS THUS FAR BEEN UNABLE TO
SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE IN ORGANIZATION OR MAINTAIN PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY RUNNING TOO HIGH. FOR NOW...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
WILL BRING KILO BACK TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS IN 12 HOURS...AND
REFLECT SLOW INTENSIFICATION THEREAFTER THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
THIS IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
SHIPS/LGEM AND THE IVCN CONSENSUS.

WITH THE NEW FORECAST TRACK BRINGING KILO QUITE CLOSE TO JOHNSTON
ISLAND ON THURSDAY...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 18.4N 167.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 18.1N 168.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 17.7N 168.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 17.1N 169.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 16.9N 170.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 16.9N 172.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 17.5N 175.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 19.0N 177.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON/WROE

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 AM HST WED AUG 26 2015

A WELL-PLACED 0808 UTC ASCAT PASS AND AN EARLIER 0601 UTC
SSMS MICROWAVE PASS BOTH REVEALED THAT KILO REMAINED POORLY
ORGANIZED AT THAT TIME...WITH THE APPARENT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER /LLCC/ DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
ASCAT AMBIGUITY DATA ALSO INDICATED A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING SSW
FROM THE LLCC. THE HIGHEST UNFLAGGED WIND BARBS FROM THE ASCAT PASS
WERE 25 KT ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
ALTHOUGH THE DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME IN AT T2.5
OR 35 KT FROM ALL THREE CENTERS...WILL WEIGHT THE ASCAT DATA MOST
HEAVILY AND MAINTAIN KILO AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS
ADVISORY.

THE ASCAT AND MICROWAVE DATA REQUIRED THE 0600 UTC BEST TRACK
POSITION TO BE RE-ANALYZED FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST...AND IT NOW
APPEARS THAT THE PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION HAD NOT
YET BEGUN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS A VERY
UNCERTAIN 260/04 KT. WITH THE CENTER RELOCATION AND CHANGE IN
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE HAS SHIFTED BACK
TO THE NORTH COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...ALTHOUGH ALL OF THE
RELIABLE TRACK MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT KILO WILL BE FORCED
ONTO A SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS A STRONG
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST SHOULD FOLLOW BY 48 HOURS. BEYOND 72
HOURS...KILO IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST
AS A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY TO THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT IS SHIFTED SOMEWHAT NORTHWARD AND IS ALSO
SOMEWHAT SLOWER DURING THE FIRST 48 HOURS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK. THIS IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TVCN CONSENSUS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS QUITE CHALLENGING. KILO WILL BE
MOVING OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 29C WITH AMPLE
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT THROUGH THE NEXT 120 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS AND
SHIPS OUTPUT SHOW LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR
OVER THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THE OTHER
HAND...KILO REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AT THIS TIME...AS HAS BEEN THE
CASE FOR SEVERAL DAYS NOW...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY RUNNING TOO HIGH. GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS...IT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE THAT KILO WILL
FINALLY GET ITS ACT TOGETHER AT SOME POINT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
HISTORY OF KILO THUS FAR...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST WILL SHOW
ONLY SLOW INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS IS CLOSEST TO
THE LGEM...AND IS MORE CONSERVATIVE THAN MOST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE
INCLUDING THE SHIPS AND THE IVCN CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 18.9N 167.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 18.6N 168.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 18.2N 168.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 17.9N 169.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 17.7N 170.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 18.0N 172.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 19.0N 175.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 20.5N 177.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON/WROE

[Extratropical94]

Finally a TS again

CP, 03, 2015082618, , BEST, 0, 184N, 1676W, 35, 1004, TS

[1900hurricane]

It might be the first time it's really been worthy of being classified as a tropical storm too. Looking much better now. Guidance is in agreement in having Kilo essentially wander the Pacific (central and then western) for well over a week, so there's a good chance this one will be with us for a while.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA41 PHFO 262045
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
1100 AM HST WED AUG 26 2015

LAST EVENING/S SCATTEROMETER PASSES...AS WELL AS CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY...SUGGESTS THAT KILO IS FINALLY BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED. THE PREVIOUSLY ELLIPTICAL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOW
MUCH MORE CIRCULAR...AND A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN
OCCURRING AROUND THE ASSUMED LOW LEVEL CENTER SINCE ABOUT 1000 UTC.
IN ADDITION...ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM HAS
IMPROVED CONSIDERABLY IN THE LAST 18 HOURS. CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 2.5 FROM SAB AND PHFO AND 3.0 FROM JTWC INDICATE THAT
KILO HAS FINALLY REGAINED TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND WE HAVE RAISED
THE INTENSITY TO 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 200/2...PARTLY
DUE TO DIFFICULTIES IN DETERMINING PRECISELY WHERE KILO MADE THE
U-TURN. A SLOW SOUTHWESTERLY MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO AS A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF KILO. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL RETREAT WESTWARD BY 36
TO 48 HOURS...ALLOWING KILO TO RESUME A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION. AT THE
LONGER TIME RANGES...KILO IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE...AND TURNS TOWARD A WEAK TROUGH IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS. THE FORECAST TRACK...WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE...IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE FOR THE NEXT
48-72 HOURS AND HAS BEEN SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT AT THE
LONGER RANGE.

NOW THAT KILO APPEARS TO BE GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER...A GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE PASSING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS IS EXPECTED
TO IMPART WEAK WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...BUT THE GFS MODEL
CONTINUES TO BACK OFF ON HOW MUCH SHEAR WOULD ACTUALLY OCCUR. IT IS
NOW MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT THE OTHER MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING. THE
SHEAR SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 29C...SO
INTENSIFICATION APPEARS LIKELY. OUR INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED UPWARD...TO BE GENERALLY STRONGER THAN THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 18.3N 167.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 18.1N 167.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 17.8N 168.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 17.5N 169.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 17.4N 170.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 17.8N 172.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 19.0N 175.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 21.1N 176.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[Ntxw]

Finally she looks like a real storm

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 PM HST WED AUG 26 2015

KILO STARTED TO GET ITS ACT TOGETHER TODAY WITH A CURVED CONVECTIVE
BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER AND IMPROVED OUTFLOW OVER
THE SYSTEM. SOME OF THIS DEEP CONVECTION HAS SINCE FADED...BUT
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY REFORM OVERNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER HAS
FINALLY BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND THIS GAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE TO
THE LOCATION...INITIAL INTENSITY...AND INITIAL MOTION OF 225/3. THE
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE A UNANIMOUS 3.0...AND SO THE
ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 45 KT.

THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED...AND FOR A REFRESHING
CHANGE THE GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SEEMS TO BE REASONABLY CONSISTENT FROM
RUN-TO-RUN. A STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWEST OF KILO
WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A SOUTHWESTERLY COURSE FOR THE TIME BEING.
AFTER 24-36 HOURS...THE RIDGE WILL MOVE WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE STORM
AND THIS WILL ALLOW KILO TO RESUME A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION. STARTING
ABOUT DAY 3...KILO WILL TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT ROUNDS THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND MOVES TOWARD A WEAK TROUGH AT THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF CHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WITH THIS PACKAGE...WHICH REMAINS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAIN. KILO IS CURRENTLY
UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING SOME WESTERLY SHEAR WOULD RESUME
OVER THE CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH. THIS MAY LIMIT DEVELOPMENT IN SPITE OF 29C
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS...KILO MOVES INTO AN
AREA OF UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE SHEAR TO
WEAKEN UNTIL PERHAPS VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.
INTENSIFICATION WOULD NORMALLY BE EXPECTED IN THIS ENVIRONMENT...
BUT FOR SOME REASON A LOT OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A LEVELING OFF IN
INTENSITY IN THIS TIME FRAME. HAVE INSTEAD MAINTAINED A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION TREND THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD...SIMILAR TO
THE LAST ADVISORY...LOWER THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE BUT HIGHER
THAN SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 17.9N 168.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 17.7N 168.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 17.4N 168.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 17.2N 170.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 17.2N 171.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 17.8N 174.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 19.1N 176.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 21.4N 177.2W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
FORECASTER R BALLARD

[euro6208]

947 Kilo in the WPAC...

[euro6208]

HUGE ACE maker...GFS makes this a 897 mb STY and has quite a very long life ahead...

[Extratropical94]

Latest BT:
CP, 03, 2015082712, , BEST, 0, 179N, 1680W, 50, 997, TS

Latest advisory:
TROPICAL STORM KILO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 27A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
200 AM HST THU AUG 27 2015

...KILO REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY NORTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 168.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM NE OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 600 MI...970 KM WSW OF BARKING SANDS HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NEARLY STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

[1900hurricane]

I'm really starting to believe this could be wandering around for quite a while. Recent models are showing a track similar to the CHPC out to 120 hours or so. However, following that once it gets near 25*N and the dateline, it nearly unanimously gets shoved back to the SW by mid-latitude ridging and enters the WPac. A number of models make it strong after that too. We'll see though, that's still a long ways out (5-7+ days).