ATL: DANNY - Models

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS has very good initialization with a 998 low in the high resolution

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 82000&fh=6

[floridasun78]

The 0zGFS has very good initialization with a 998 low in the high resolution

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 82000&fh=6

look still coming out only go 72 hours

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS has very good initialization with a 998 low in the high resolution

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 82000&fh=6

look still coming out only go 72 hours

yep looks to be weakening it to 1003 mb

[floridasun78]

The 0zGFS has very good initialization with a 998 low in the high resolution

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 82000&fh=6

look still coming out only go 72 hours

yep looks to be weakening it to 1003 mb

wait and see game with danny

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS almost drops Danny at day 5 around St Martin and St Croix and kills it over Puerto Rico at 138hrs

[BobHarlem]

GFS is in line with the earlier Euro model, west and weak to falling apart.

The cynic would now think that the 0z Euro run would do something completely the opposite.

[ROCK]

When in doubt the eruo is king! Or you might want to check out the NAVGEM

[caneman]

Some things never change with Rock and the Euro ;0

Joking aside. I believe the box to look for is 20 and 65, if it comes in South it would be a threat to the US. Further North is usually a miss. Forget the name of that box. Didn't someone at The Weather Channel come up with that? Someone can correct me if wrong.

[South Texas Storms]

Some things never change with Rock and the Euro ;0

Joking aside. I believe the box to look for is 20 and 65, if it comes in South it would be a threat to the US. Further North is usually a miss. Forget the name of that box. Didn't someone at The Weather Channel come up with that? Someone can correct me if wrong.

That is the Hebert Box and he worked at the NWS and NHC.

[caneman]

THanks

[wxman57]

Danny does, at least, look like a TS today. I was looking at the wind shear in its path a week from today, in case it had any ideas of coming toward the Gulf or East U.S. Coast. There should be a giant upper-level low in the Gulf and a wall of shear that would destroy anything moving toward it. The map below is valid next Thursday, about the time Danny would be near the Bahamas or Cuba. I think the models have it right - dissipation after it passes the NE Caribbean.

[northjaxpro]

Well wxman57 should that GFS analysis run come to fruition in about a week or so, you can get ready to get Bones out of the closet concerning Danny.

[Blown Away]

12z Guidance Mostly North Of NHC Track...

[TheStormExpert]

12z Intensity Guidance

[Stormcenter]

Not to disagree with you but that's a week away, isn't safe to say a lot can change before then?

Danny does, at least, look like a TS today. I was looking at the wind shear in its path a week from today, in case it had any ideas of coming toward the Gulf or East U.S. Coast. There should be a giant upper-level low in the Gulf and a wall of shear that would destroy anything moving toward it. The map below is valid next Thursday, about the time Danny would be near the Bahamas or Cuba. I think the models have it right - dissipation after it passes the NE Caribbean.

[drezee]

I am almost speechless. King Euro was the first to forecast a mini-cane days ago. I was a non-believer...I apologize King Euro.

[Siker]

I am almost speechless. King Euro was the first to forecast a mini-cane days ago. I was a non-believer...I apologize King Euro.

True, although the Euro only had Danny as a hurricane for one, two runs? After that it seemed to have resolution issues with this tiny core. HWRF also did a good job predicting the size early on.

[Blown Away]

Looking at the GFS track, I'm thinking the latest run dissipated Danny due to land interaction... Curious to see what future GFS runs will do if the track moves N or S of the big islands...

[ConvergenceZone]

wxman, you are always here to rain on the parade, lol.....

(kidding of course,we love ya)

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

if the bigger pattern runs a little slower than expected, and that big upper level low is not deep into the Gulf yet, Danny could threaten the US mainland if it stays north of the islands.
position of the atlantic ridge will also be critical to see if it rides along a western perimeter and is able to recurve out to sea, or if the ridge leads it into Florida.
will be an interesting weekend coming up and watching this.
I'm glad we at least have something to track this season!