WPAC: KILO - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA41 PHFO 271430
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 AM HST THU AUG 27 2015

THE CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND EVIDENT SIX HOURS AGO HAS BECOME QUITE
IMPRESSIVE...WRAPPING MORE THAN HALFWAY AROUND THIS SYSTEM AND
PROMPTING ALL THREE SATELLITE CENTERS TO BUMP UP THEIR SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES TO 3.5...55 KT. ORGANIZATION
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AS A CDO APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ABOVE THE
LLCC. OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO BE GOOD IN ALL BUT THE NORTHWEST
DIRECTION...WHILE A CONSOLIDATED AND SYMMETRICAL LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION PERSISTS. GIVEN THIS IMPROVED SATELLITE
PRESENTATION...AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE SATELLITE
CENTERS...INITIAL INTENSITY FOR KILO IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.

TRACK GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE GROUPED AROUND A SOLUTION SHOWING
KILO SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHWEST AND WEST THROUGH 48 HOURS...THEN
GRADUALLY SWINGING NORTHWEST WHILE ACCELERATING DAYS THREE THROUGH
FIVE. UNFORTUNATELY...CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED BACK TO THE LEFT WHILE
CONTINUING TO FOLLOW THIS GENERAL CURVING TREND. MODELS STILL SHOW A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHWEST OF KILO AS THE MAIN STEERING
MECHANISM...PUSHING KILO INITIALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THEN LETTING KILO
SLIP NORTHWESTWARD IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERM. THE FORECAST TRACK
IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR INITIAL MOTION. THE
FORECAST TRACK IS THEN SHIFTED MORE NOTICEABLY TO THE LEFT AFTER 48
HOURS...BUT REMAINING RIGHT OF CONSENSUS...IN A NOD TO THE CONSENSUS
TRACK CHANGE BUT LEAVING OURSELVES SOME LEEWAY IN THE EVENT OF
FUTURE CONSENSUS TRACK SHIFTS.

KILO LIES WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD PROMOTE GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION...WITH SSTS NEAR 29C AND REASONABLY GOOD VENTING
ALOFT. HOWEVER...IN SPITE OF THE STRONGER INITIAL INTENSITY...MODELS
STILL STRENGTHEN KILO QUITE SLOWLY. SHIPS DEPICTS KILO REACHING
HURRICANE STRENGTH AT 48 HOURS...THE SAME AS LAST TIME...WITH A PEAK
STRENGTH NEAR 75 KT REACHED BY DAY FIVE. OUR INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THIS TREND...CAPPING KILO AT 80 KT ON DAY FIVE AFTER SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 17.8N 168.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 17.6N 168.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 17.4N 169.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 17.4N 170.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 17.5N 171.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 18.3N 174.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 20.7N 176.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 23.5N 177.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
FORECASTER POWEL

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA41 PHFO 272045
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
1100 AM HST THU AUG 27 2015

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KILO CONTINUES TO SLOWLY IMPROVE
WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER POSITIONED UNDER THE COLDEST CLOUD TOPS.
THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALL CAME
IN AT 3.5...55 KT. UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES CAME IN AT 4.5...77 KT.
GIVEN THIS IMPROVED SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT WITH THIS ADVISORY.

TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH 36 HOURS WITH A
WESTWARD TRACK INDICATED BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THIS WESTWARD
TRACK IS DUE TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. A
SLOW INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ALSO INDICATED IN THE SHORT TERM.
THIS FOLLOWS ALONG CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS
CENTERED IN THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE
TRACK GUIDANCE BEGINS TO SPREAD OUT AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH TIME. THIS WILL PLACE KILO
SOUTHWEST OF THE RIDGE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED
AS KILO BEGINS TO ROUND THE RIDGE. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE BEYOND
36 HOURS HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND
FOLLOWS CLOSELY ALONG WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW
DOWN AS KILO ENTERS AN AREA OF WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS WEST OF THE
RIDGE.

EVEN THOUGH KILO LIES IN AN AREA OF WARM SST VALUES OF AROUND
29C...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF AROUND 15 KT IS STILL BEING INDICATED
BY BOTH UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. THE MODERATE SHEAR IS LIKELY
THE REASON THAT THE SYSTEM IS SLOW TO INTENSIFY. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST
FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH KILO EXPECTED
TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. BEYOND 48
HOURS...HWFI AND GFDI GUIDANCE STRENGTHEN KILO MUCH MORE RAPIDLY
THEN SHIPS...ICON AND AVNI GUIDANCE. THE LATEST INTENSITY FOLLOWS
CLOSELY WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND HAS CHANGED
LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH SLOW STRENGTHENING TO
AROUND 85 KT AT 120 HOURS EXPECTED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 17.7N 168.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 17.5N 169.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 17.3N 170.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 17.3N 171.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 17.5N 173.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 18.8N 175.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 31/1800Z 20.9N 177.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 23.3N 178.1W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA41 PHFO 280237
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 PM HST THU AUG 27 2015

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF KILO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE CENTER POSITIONED UNDER THE COLDEST
CLOUD TOPS. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 3.5...55 KT FROM SAB AND JTWC TO 4.0...65 KT
FROM PHFO. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE PRESENTATION AND THE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE FIX CENTERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN AT 60 KT WITH THIS ADVISORY.

NEARLY ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH
DAY 5 WITH A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK INDICATED THROUGH 36 HOURS.
THIS WESTWARD TRACK IS DUE TO A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. A SLOW INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS ALSO INDICATED IN
THE SHORT TERM. THIS FOLLOWS ALONG CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS CENTERED DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
GUIDANCE. BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY EASTWARD WITH TIME. THIS WILL PLACE KILO SOUTHWEST OF THE
RIDGE WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED AS KILO BEGINS
TO ROUND THE RIDGE. THE LATEST TRACK GUIDANCE BEYOND 36 HOURS HAS
CHANGED VERY LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND FOLLOWS
CLOSELY ALONG WITH CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SLOW
DOWN AS KILO ENTERS AN AREA OF WEAKER STEERING CURRENTS WEST OF THE
RIDGE.

EVEN THOUGH KILO LIES IN AN AREA OF WARM SST VALUES OF AROUND
29C...SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OF AROUND 15 KT IS STILL BEING INDICATED
BY BOTH UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS GUIDANCE. THIS IS LIKELY THE REASON THAT
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOW TO INTENSIFY. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE
SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE LATEST FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH KILO EXPECTED TO REACH
HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. BOTH THE HWFI AND GFDI
GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN KILO MUCH MORE RAPIDLY THAN
SHIPS AND ICON GUIDANCE. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
CLOSELY WITH THE MORE CONSERVATIVE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND HAS NOT
CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...WITH SLOW STRENGTHENING TO
AROUND 85 KT EXPECTED BY DAY 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 17.4N 169.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 17.2N 169.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 17.1N 171.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 17.2N 172.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 17.5N 174.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 19.1N 176.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 21.4N 178.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 23.5N 179.1W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Extratropical94]

Kilo not a hurricane yet according to BT data.
03C KILO 150828 0600 17.2N 169.5W CPAC 60 990

[euro6208]

12Z and 00Z continues to show a monster Kilo in the WPAC...

[euro6208]

Even GFS continues to be robust. Brings it down to 894 mb!

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA41 PHFO 281444
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 AM HST FRI AUG 28 2015

KILO HAS MAINTAINED AN EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN DURING THE NIGHT...
WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE APPARENT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER /LLCC/. A
WELL-PLACED 0906 UTC ASCAT PASS VERIFIED THAT THE LLCC REMAINED
DISPLACED SOMEWHAT SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTER OF THE DEEP CONVECTION
AT THAT TIME. THE LATEST DVORAK SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES CAME
IN AT T3.5/55KT FROM SAB...AND T4.0/65KT FROM PHFO/JTWC. THE
UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 57 KT...WHILE THE ASCAT PASS
FOUND SOME 55 KT WIND BARBS IN THE STRONG CONVECTION NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC. HAVE TAKEN A BLEND OF THE ABOVE DATA AND
MAINTAINED KILO AS A 60 KT TROPICAL STORM WITH THIS ADVISORY.

DATA FROM THE ASCAT PASS AIDED OUR INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF
265/07. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY. GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE NEXT 48
HOURS...WITH KILO GRADUALLY CURVING FROM A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOR THIS TIME PERIOD LIES VERY CLOSE
TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND TO THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS. BEYOND 48
HOURS...KILO IS FORECAST TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST WITH SOME DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED...AS THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO A BREAK IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE INDUCED BY A WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE. THE 06Z GFS SHIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE
LEFT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS GFS RUN...AND IS NOW CLOSE TO THE 00Z
ECMWF AT 72 THROUGH 120 HOURS...BUT FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND TO THE TVCN
CONSENSUS.

KILO WILL BE MOVING OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR
29C AND AMPLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS AND SHIPS INDICATE THAT SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR OF 9 TO 13 KT IS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE SYSTEM...WHICH
MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE ASYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION AND LACK OF OUTFLOW
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. SHIPS INDICATES SIMILAR SHEAR VALUES
PERSISTING FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE THEREAFTER.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND MAKES
KILO A HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS. SLOW INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST
THEREAFTER...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND LGEM
GUIDANCE BUT SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW THE HWRF AND ICON CONSENSUS.

DATA FROM THE 0906 UTC ASCAT PASS WAS UTILIZED TO ADJUST THE WIND
RADII. WE HAVE MAINTAINED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JOHNSTON
ISLAND WITH THIS ADVISORY PACKAGE...BUT THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY
BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY AS KILO CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 17.2N 170.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 17.2N 171.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 17.4N 173.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 17.8N 174.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 18.5N 176.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 31/1200Z 20.7N 178.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 23.0N 179.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 25.0N 180.0E 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
FORECASTER JACOBSON

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA41 PHFO 290235
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
500 PM HST FRI AUG 28 2015

AN EYE LIKE FEATURE HAS EMERGED FROM UNDER THE CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST...HOWEVER DEEP CONVECTION IS VOID IN THE NORTH QUADRANT.
CLOUD TOPS HAVE ALSO WARMED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN THE
SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE IS LESS SYMMETRIC. A
2136 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED MAX WINDS OF 50 KT IN THE NORTH
SEMICIRCLE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 3.5...55 KT FROM SAB...4.0...65 KT FROM
PHFO...AND 4.5...77 KT FROM JTWC. GIVEN THE CURRENT SATELLITE
PRESENTATION...THE RECENT ASCAT PASS...AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM THE FIX CENTERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE WILL REMAIN AT
60 KT WITH THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285
DEGREES AT 8 KT. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK THROUGH 96 HOURS...BUT TURNS THE SYSTEM MORE
TOWARD THE WEST AT 120 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. KILO IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD IN THE SHORT TERM AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS KILO EXPERIENCES A
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND BEGINS TO ROUND ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY.
FROM 48 TO 96 HOURS...A GENERAL NORTHWEST TRACK IS FORECAST WITH A
GRADUAL SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED AS STEERING CURRENTS BECOME WEAKER.
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A SUB TROPICAL RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD IN NORTH OF KILO WHICH SHOULD TURN THE SYSTEM
TOWARD THE WEST. THIS WESTWARD TURN LINES UP WELL WITH GLOBAL AND
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

KILO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
NEAR 29C AND AMPLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES ABOUT 6 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE
NORTHEAST. THIS IS LIKELY THE REASON THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES
10 KT OF SHEAR FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST LIKELY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER BEING SLIGHTLY DISPLACED FROM THE UPPER LEVEL CENTER. SHIPS
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN 12 TO 18
HOURS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR KILO TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE
LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
ALONG CLOSELY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 48 HOURS...BUT HAS
BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BEYOND 48
HOURS...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH ICON AND SHIPS GUIDANCE...BUT STILL
REMAINS BELOW HWRF AND GFDI.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 17.7N 172.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 17.8N 173.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 18.1N 175.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 18.9N 176.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 19.7N 177.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 22.3N 179.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 24.0N 179.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 24.7N 179.1E 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Extratropical94]

Hurricane, finally

03C KILO 150829 0600 17.7N 172.9W CPAC 65 985

[Ntxw]

That makes it three active Hurricanes in the eastern Pacific.

[Extratropical94]

GFDL is on board with a category 5 east of the dateline.

[Extratropical94]

Now it's official, hurricane number 10 has formed.

HURRICANE KILO ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 28 2015

...KILO REACHES HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 173.3W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM WNW OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM SSE OF MIDWAY ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

[euro6208]

EURO still makes it a category 5 bottoming it out at 920 mb northwest of Wake Island...

[euro6208]

Incredible 18Z and 00Z GFS bottoms this out at 876 mb. WPAC gonna gain more ACE from this monster...

[Extratropical94]

Incredible 18Z and 00Z GFS bottoms this out at 876 mb. WPAC gonna gain more ACE from this monster...

Do you have a saved image of these runs?

Also, GFDL is on drugs, taking Kilo to 160 knots / 904 mb in just 54 hours.

[euro6208]

06Z a bit weaker, 907 mb, and has Kilo at Cat 5 intensity for over 5 days in the WPAC...

[euro6208]

Incredible 18Z and 00Z GFS bottoms this out at 876 mb. WPAC gonna gain more ACE from this monster...

Do you have a saved image of these runs?

No I don't...

Kilo will be traversing over the warmest WPAC waters untapped by the latest activity with 2C in the path...

[Yellow Evan]

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1210 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015

A. Hurricane kilo.

B. 29/1130Z.

C. 17.8°N.

D. 174.1°W.

E. Goes-15.

F. T4.5/4.5/d0.5/24 hrs.

G. Eir/ir.

H. Remarks: Center location confidence is low due to convection. 1.0 wrap results in 3.5, add .5 for white band resulting in DT of 4.0. PT agrees. Adjusted MET of 4.5. FT based on met.

I. Addl positions nil.

[Yellow Evan]

WTPA41 PHFO 290857
TCDCP1

HURRICANE KILO DISCUSSION NUMBER 35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP032015
1100 PM HST FRI AUG 28 2015

CONDITIONS HAVE APPEARED FAVORABLE FOR KILO TO INTENSIFY FOR MOST
OF ITS EXISTENCE...BUT INTENSIFICATION HAS REMAINED SLOW. THE
LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE
4.0/65 KT FROM SAB...AND 4.5/77 KT FROM PHFO AND JTWC. AN AMSU-B
PASS AT 0423 UTC AND AN SSMIS PASS AT 0512 UTC BOTH SHOWED A
COMPLETE EYEWALL...BUT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW AN
EYE. NONETHELESS...I HAVE UPGRADED KILO TO A HURRICANE BASED ON THE
MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND THE STRONG EMBEDDED CENTER PATTERN IN INFRARED
IMAGERY.

WITH NO EYE SHOWING ON THE INFRARED DATA...LOCATING THE CENTER ON
INFRARED IMAGERY IS CHALLENGING...BUT THE RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES
PROVIDED GOOD CENTER POSITIONS. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/08.
THE FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
TRACK. FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...KILO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WEST NORTHWEST AROUND THE SOUTHWEST END OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS KILO ROUNDS THE RIDGE. FROM 48 TO 96 HOURS...A GENERAL NORTHWEST
TRACK IS FORECAST WITH A GRADUAL SLOWING IN FORWARD MOTION AS
THE STEERING FLOW WEAKENS. AFTER 96 HOURS...AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD NORTH OF KILO...RESULTING IN A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST. THE CURRENT TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

KILO WILL REMAIN OVER VERY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 28C
WITH AMPLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE
LATEST UW-CIMSS ANALYSIS INDICATES ONLY ABOUT 3 KT OF VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR FROM THE EAST. SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS INDICATES THAT THE
SHEAR WILL BE QUITE LOW THROUGH 36 HOURS AND WILL REMAIN MODERATE
THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE LATEST INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED UP
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WHICH LINES UP WELL WITH ICON AND SHIPS
GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 17.8N 173.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 18.1N 174.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 18.7N 175.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 19.5N 177.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 31/0600Z 20.7N 178.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 23.2N 179.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 24.5N 180.0E 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 25.0N 178.5E 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
FORECASTER DONALDSON

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

                  * EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST          *
                    * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE,       OHC AVAILABLE     *
                    *  KILO        CP032015  08/29/15  12 UTC        *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    80    87    93    98   101   108   107   109   107   105   110   114   115
V (KT) LAND       80    87    93    98   101   108   107   109   107   105   110   114   115
V (KT) LGE mod    80    89    95   101   106   113   116   114   111   107   107   111   114
Storm Type      TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP  TROP

SHEAR (KT)         8     8     5     3     5     7    11     9    14     8     9     5     8
SHEAR ADJ (KT)    -1    -2    -3    -4    -6    -1     1     0     0     0     0     0     6
SHEAR DIR        235   249   245   220   216   231   249   245   269   270   253   211   231
SST (C)         28.8  28.8  28.8  28.9  28.9  29.1  29.2  29.1  29.1  29.1  29.2  29.2  29.3
POT. INT. (KT)   152   151   151   153   153   155   156   154   153   153   154   154   155
200 MB T (C)   -51.3 -51.3 -50.8 -50.4 -50.5 -50.1 -50.0 -49.7 -50.1 -50.1 -50.2 -49.9 -49.8
TH_E DEV (C)      12    12    12    13    13    13    13    13    13    12    13    12    13
700-500 MB RH     51    53    53    56    56    56    53    54    51    53    51    53    51
MODEL VTX (KT)    17    18    19    20    20    24    25    29    30    32    35    40    41
850 MB ENV VOR    13    19    24    23    19    21     3    -2   -16     2     4    39    40
200 MB DIV       -19   -14     0    16    12    33    14    22     3   -13     3    28     8
700-850 TADV      -7    -5     0     1     1     3     3     4     6     5     3     3     5
LAND (KM)       1541  1602  1665  1725  1787  1899  1973  2005  2026  2070  3536  3482  3414
LAT (DEG N)     17.9  18.2  18.4  18.8  19.1  20.1  21.4  22.7  23.7  24.4  24.7  24.9  25.2
LONG(DEG W)    173.9 174.6 175.3 176.0 176.7 178.0 178.9 179.3 179.5 179.9 180.6 181.3 182.1
STM SPEED (KT)     7     7     7     7     8     8     7     6     5     4     3     4     4
HEAT CONTENT      54    48    47    47    48    45    39    25    15    14    45    43    45

  FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/  8      CX,CY:  -7/  1
  T-12 MAX WIND:  60            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  627  (MEAN=581)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV.  50-200 KM RAD:   6.4 (MEAN=14.5)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  97.0 (MEAN=65.0)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   1.   2.   2.   2.   1.  -1.  -3.  -5.  -7.  -9.  -8.
  VERTICAL SHEAR MAG     0.   0.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   5.   5.   4.   4.   4.
  VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ     0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  VERTICAL SHEAR DIR     0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -3.  -3.  -2.  -1.   0.   1.   2.   3.
  PERSISTENCE            5.   7.   8.   8.   6.   5.   3.   2.   2.   1.   1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -4.  -6.  -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   1.   1.   2.   3.   4.   5.   7.   7.   8.   9.   9.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  MODEL VTX TENDENCY     0.   1.   3.   3.  10.  12.  17.  19.  21.  28.  33.  34.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  850-700 T ADVEC        0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.
  GOES PREDICTORS        1.   2.   3.   4.   4.   5.   4.   4.   3.   3.   2.   2.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   1.   2.   2.   3.   4.   3.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE           7.  13.  18.  21.  28.  27.  29.  27.  25.  30.  34.  35.

   ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032015 KILO       08/29/15  12 UTC **
           ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  20.0 Range:-22.0 to  38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.7/  1.5
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   5.7 Range: 18.7 to   1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.8/  1.1
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   :  72.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.3
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :   6.4 Range: 38.9 to   2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.9
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  48.8 Range:  3.6 to  75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.5
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  -1.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.1
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  0.5
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  67.0 Range: 57.6 to  96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.2/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    45% is   3.4 times the sample mean(13.1%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    44% is   5.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=    35% is   5.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
 Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)