ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[Evil Jeremy]

We have been here long enough to know there are no garuntees in the tropics, so your saying the magical shield recurve is a given is unwise and unhelpful

It has happened for the last 10 years. I like my chances. Either that or a weak storm and further west. Using models as proof is about as foolish as me going on a limb with what has happened the past 10 years.

No one is using models as proof of anything. They are theoretical projections.

[Steve]

We have been here long enough to know there are no garuntees in the tropics, so your saying the magical shield recurve is a given is unwise and unhelpful

It has happened for the last 10 years. I like my chances. Either that or a weak storm and further west. Using models as proof is about as foolish as me going on a limb with what has happened the past 10 years.

And I'd say that's a legitimate point to make if you believe it to be so.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Ah the usual bashing for the guy predicting the models will eventually be OTS with this one. Is this attack NCSTORMMAN for having an opinion on the models or is this supposed to be about the models themselves? Sure are a lot of personal attacks from people so sure that the models are right like they have been all the time. SARCASM.

Come on man. Maybe you want good discussion. Maybe you're just trolling. I don't know. But it's not about you at this point. It's about Erika. And posting 30, 40 or 50 one liners in a day isn't going to necessarily result in positive feedback. Plus it's the models thread. They may well be out to lunch, or some may offer hints. But it's kind of boring reading low-substance posts - once in a while, cool. All day every day, maybe not so much.

My opinion and not needing a back up with facts sort of post. This is for discussing models and my substance is mine alone. I do not need to back it up because I have already put in the disclaimer below that I am no MET. I am just going with trends for the last 10 years, shear forecast, organizational issues, and land interaction. All I really need to form an opinion.

[tgenius]

Does anyone have that link to the NAVGEM? I'd like to scroll it through to see exactly how close it does get to SFLA.

[NCSTORMMAN]

We have been here long enough to know there are no garuntees in the tropics, so your saying the magical shield recurve is a given is unwise and unhelpful

It has happened for the last 10 years. I like my chances. Either that or a weak storm and further west. Using models as proof is about as foolish as me going on a limb with what has happened the past 10 years.

No one is using models as proof of anything. They are theoretical projections.

Sure, and my opinion is also a theoretical projection. I am done though this has gotten off topic.

[Evil Jeremy]

Ah the usual bashing for the guy predicting the models will eventually be OTS with this one. Is this attack NCSTORMMAN for having an opinion on the models or is this supposed to be about the models themselves? Sure are a lot of personal attacks from people so sure that the models are right like they have been all the time. SARCASM.

Come on man. Maybe you want good discussion. Maybe you're just trolling. I don't know. But it's not about you at this point. It's about Erika. And posting 30, 40 or 50 one liners in a day isn't going to necessarily result in positive feedback. Plus it's the models thread. They may well be out to lunch, or some may offer hints. But it's kind of boring reading low-substance posts - once in a while, cool. All day every day, maybe not so much.

My opinion and not needing a back up with facts sort of post. This is for discussing models and my substance is mine alone. I do not need to back it up because I have already put in the disclaimer below that I am no MET. I am just going with trends for the last 10 years, shear forecast, organizational issues, and land interaction. All I really need to form an opinion.

You don't get how this works. The disclaimer is for legal purposes. You still need to back up your statements with substance, data, facts. Otherwise you are spreading misinformation.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Ah the usual bashing for the guy predicting the models will eventually be OTS with this one. Is this attack NCSTORMMAN for having an opinion on the models or is this supposed to be about the models themselves? Sure are a lot of personal attacks from people so sure that the models are right like they have been all the time. SARCASM.

Come on man. Maybe you want good discussion. Maybe you're just trolling. I don't know. But it's not about you at this point. It's about Erika. And posting 30, 40 or 50 one liners in a day isn't going to necessarily result in positive feedback. Plus it's the models thread. They may well be out to lunch, or some may offer hints. But it's kind of boring reading low-substance posts - once in a while, cool. All day every day, maybe not so much.

My opinion and not needing a back up with facts sort of post. This is for discussing models and my substance is mine alone. I do not need to back it up because I have already put in the disclaimer below that I am no MET. I am just going with trends for the last 10 years, shear forecast, organizational issues, and land interaction. All I really need to form an opinion.

I'm curious. If you already know what storms are going to do why spend your time on a tropical weather board?

[gatorcane]

12Z HWRF is intensifying in the SE Bahamas by hour 93:

[NCSTORMMAN]

No, I am not spreading misinformation. I said that we have a shield around us here which I have seen many upon many others say so too. I do not mean a literal shield but no landfalls in 10 years is kind of hard to ignore. I am not perfect but I still like to share my opinions on the models.

[NCSTORMMAN]

I love watching them form. Beautiful stuff and love watching people freak out lol. What does the NAVGEM show? Funniest freak out model there.

[SouthFLTropics]

Back on topic...HWRF cleared Puerto Rico and is starting to build in the Bahamas.

SFT

[deltadog03]

More than likely there will not be much strengthening with Erika (if at all) until it reaches near the Bahamas.

[Evil Jeremy]

ECMWF any minute now...

[NCSTORMMAN]

ECMWF any minute now...

What do you think it will show? Predictions?

[ROCK]

Navgem always one of my favorites...



http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/metoc/nogaps/

[SouthFLTropics]

ECMWF any minute now...

What do you think it will show? Predictions?

Put me down for $10.00...Similar to 00z with a nudge to the west.

SFT

[gatorcane]

12Z HWRF has it moving WNW still through the Bahamas and intensifying

[TimeZone]

ECMWF any minute now...

What do you think it will show? Predictions?

Slight nudge west and backing off on the intensity a bit.

[wxmann_91]

ECMWF any minute now...

What do you think it will show? Predictions?

Given the instability of the Euro it's probably going to show an open wave now.

[NCSTORMMAN]

ECMWF any minute now...

What do you think it will show? Predictions?

Put me down for $10.00...Similar to 00z with a nudge to the west.

SFT

Okay $10.00 and west. I am going weaker than 00z run and into the Gulf of Mexico. Anyone else?