EPAC: PATRICIA - Post-Tropical

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#541 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:31 am

supercane4867 wrote:182kt SFMR wind confirmed by VDM


That's insane! And it seems still be strengthening too
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#542 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:32 am

supercane4867 wrote:182kt SFMR wind confirmed by VDM


No reason to not go with 180kts for the intensity.
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#543 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:32 am

Also, what a coincidence as Patricia is making history on the same week of the 10 year anniversary of Wilma, being observed currently. How about this fact folks!
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#544 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:32 am

I could see as high as 180 knots, but I doubt the NHC will go above 165 knots.
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#545 Postby Ntxw » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:33 am

supercane4867 wrote:182kt SFMR wind confirmed by VDM


And Crazy83 was saying our draws would drop when they find 170kts :eek:. Must be dropped to the floor now.
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#546 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:33 am

Yellow Evan wrote:I could see as high as 180 knots, but I doubt the NHC will go above 165 knots.


Think they'll go higher post-analysis if they don't operationally?
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Re: Re:

#547 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:33 am

Hammy wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:182kt SFMR wind confirmed by VDM


That's insane! And it seems still be strengthening too


It is . Patricia is just now reaching max intensity.
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#548 Postby brunota2003 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:33 am

Please remember, just 12 hours ago, the surface winds and flight winds were the same. Given that nothing has changed (its still in bombing out phase), it doesn't necessarily surprise me that max flight level winds and SFMR winds are equal.
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#549 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:34 am

Yellow Evan wrote:I could see as high as 180 knots, but I doubt the NHC will go above 165 knots.


Why on earth would they not?
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#550 Postby Hammy » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:34 am

To think this may have to weaken over 40 mph just to drop below Cat 5 :eek:
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#551 Postby 1900hurricane » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:35 am

I can't believe I'm saying this, but given the VDM, I can't see the NHC going with anything under 170 kt.
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Re:

#552 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:35 am

brunota2003 wrote:Please remember, just 12 hours ago, the surface winds and flight winds were the same. Given that nothing has changed (its still in bombing out phase), it doesn't necessarily surprise me that max flight level winds and SFMR winds are equal.


Exactly this.

Especially when the winds are VDM confirmed, and there is a pressure reading to support such winds.
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#553 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:35 am

That SFMR report supports 180 kts as far as I am concerned!!! That is beyond insane!! WOW!!
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Re: Re:

#554 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:35 am

Kingarabian wrote:
Yellow Evan wrote:I could see as high as 180 knots, but I doubt the NHC will go above 165 knots.


Why on earth would they not?


Due to the FL winds maybe? Who knows.
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#555 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:36 am

If we get one more pass and the winds are similar, it'll be a sure bet that the NHC will at least go with 175kts.
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Re:

#556 Postby tatertawt24 » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:36 am

Hammy wrote:To think this may have to weaken over 40 mph just to drop below Cat 5 :eek:


The one good thing is that if it does start weakening, the winds won't be making it down to the surface as much as they would if it were still bombing out at landfall, which barely even seems possible at this point. :eek:
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#557 Postby talkon » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:37 am

Just saw the 182kt winds. Wow. Just wow.
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Re: EPAC: PATRICIA - Hurricane

#558 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:37 am

2am EDT Best track at 165 knots (190mph), 886mb:

EP, 20, 2015102306, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1054W, 165, 886, HU, 34, NEQ, 150, 100, 60, 130, 1007, 180, 5, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, PATRICIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034,
EP, 20, 2015102306, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1054W, 165, 886, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 40, 40, 1007, 180, 5, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, PATRICIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034,
EP, 20, 2015102306, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1054W, 165, 886, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 20, 1007, 180, 5, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, PATRICIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034,
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#559 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:37 am

EP, 20, 2015102306, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1054W, 165, 886, HU, 34, NEQ, 150, 100, 60, 130, 1007, 180, 5, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, PATRICIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034,
EP, 20, 2015102306, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1054W, 165, 886, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 40, 40, 1007, 180, 5, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, PATRICIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034,
EP, 20, 2015102306, , BEST, 0, 165N, 1054W, 165, 886, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 20, 20, 20, 1007, 180, 5, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, PATRICIA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 034,
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#560 Postby EquusStorm » Fri Oct 23, 2015 1:37 am

We're honestly in uncharted territory now, at least as far as ATL/EPAC levels are concerned. Aside from Wilma there is really nothing to compare these kinds of readings to on this side of the globe. :eek:
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