Global model runs discussion
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cycloneye
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
If what 00z GFS has about things moving in fishland,then Lesser Antilles would be safe but of course is first run ad is long range.
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cycloneye
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Dr Jeff Masters made a very interesting blog about the models that is very educational.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... commenttop
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) set a new record in 2012 for accuracy of their 1, 2, 3, and 4-day Atlantic tropical cyclone track forecasts, but had almost no skill making intensity forecasts, according to the 2012 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report, issued in March 2013. The new records for track accuracy were set despite the fact that the season’s storms were harder than average to forecast. The average error in a 1-day forecast was 46 miles, and was 79 miles for 2 days, 116 miles for 3 days, 164 miles for 4 days, and 224 miles for 5 days. The official track forecast had a westward bias of 10 - 17 miles for 1 - 3 day forecasts (i.e., the official forecast tended to fall to the west of the verifying position), and was 38 and 75 miles too far to the northeast for the 4- and 5-day forecasts, respectively.
NHC Intensity Forecasts: Little Improvement Since 1990
Official NHC intensity forecasts did better than usual in 2012, and had errors lower than the 5-year average error for 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5-day forecasts. However, 2012's storms were easier to predict than usual, due to due to a lack of rapidly intensifying hurricanes. These rapid intensifiers are typically the source of the largest forecast errors. The skill of official NHC 24-hour intensity forecasts made in 2012 for the Atlantic basin were only about 15% better than a "no-skill" forecast; 2, 3, 4, and 5-day intensity forecasts had no skill.
Which Track Model Should You Trust?
As usual, in 2012 the official NHC forecast for Atlantic storms was almost as good as or better than any individual computer models--though NOAA's GFS model did slightly better than the NHC official forecast at 12, 24, and 48-hour periods, and the European model forecast was slightly better at 12-hour forecasts. Despite all the attention given to how the European Center (ECMWF) model outperformed the GFS model for Hurricane Sandy's track at long ranges, the GFS model actually outperformed the European model in 2012 when summing up all track forecasts made for all Atlantic named storms. This occurred, in part, because the European model made a few disastrously bad forecasts for Tropical Storm Debby when it was in the Gulf of Mexico and steering currents were weak. For several runs, the model predicted a Texas landfall, but Debby ended up moving east-northeast to make a Northwest Florida landfall, like the GFS model had predicted. However, the best-performing model averaged over the past three years has been the European Center model, with the GFS model a close second. Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing track models used to predict hurricane tracks. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on this page. Here are some of the better models NHC regularly looks at:
ECMWF: The European Center's global forecast model
GFS: NOAA's global forecast model
NOGAPS: The Navy's global forecast model (now defunct, replaced by the NAVGEM model in 2013)
UKMET: The United Kingdom Met Office's global forecast model
GFDL: The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's hurricane model, initialized using GFS data
HWRF: The intended successor for the the GFDL hurricane model, also initialized using GFS data
CMC: The Canadian GEM model
BAMM: The very old Beta and Advection Model (Medium layer), which is still useful at longer ranges
If one averages together the track forecasts from the first six of these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it. As seen in Figure 3, the HWRF and UKMET were well behind the ECMWF and GFS in forecast accuracy in 2012, but were still respectable. The simple BAMM model did well at 3, 4, and 5-day forecasts. The GFDL and CMC models did quite poorly compared to the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and HWRF. The Navy's NOGAPS model also did poorly in 2012, and has been retired. Its replacement for 2013 is called the NAVGEM model.
Which Intensity Model Should You Trust?
Don't trust any of them. NHC has two main statistical intensity models, LGEM and DSHP (the SHIPS model with inland decay of a storm factored in.) In addition, four dynamical models that are also use to track hurricanes--the GFS, ECMWF, HWRF, and GFDL models--all offer intensity forecasts. With the exception of the GFS model, which had a skill just 5% better than a "no-skill" intensity forecast for predictions going out 36 hours, all of these models had no skill in their intensity forecasts during 2012. The ECMWF and HWRF models were the worst models for intensity forecasts of 3, 4, and 5 days, with a skill of 20% - 60% lower than a "no-skill" forecast. The LGEM model, which was a decent intensity model in 2011, tanked badly in 2012 and had near-zero skill. The only model that was any good in 2012 was the IVCN "consensus" model, which averages together the intensity forecasts of two or more of the intensity models such as LGEM, GFDL, HWRF, and DSHP.
Some Promising Models From the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)
Last year was the fourth year of a ten-year project, called the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), aimed at reducing hurricane track and intensity errors by 50%. The new experimental models from HFIP generally performed poorly in 2012. However, the new FIM9 15-km global model was competitive with the ECMWF and GFS models for track, and the new CIRA Statistical Intensity Consensus (SPC3) model for intensity performed better than many of the traditional intensity models.
For those interested in learning more about the hurricane forecast models, NOAA has a 1-hour training video (updated for 2011.) Additional information about the guidance models used at the NHC can be found at NHC and the NOAA/HRD Hurricane FAQ.
Sources of Model Data
You can view 7-day ECMWF and 16-day GFS forecasts on wunderground's wundermap with the model layer turned on.
Longer ten-day ECMWF forecasts are available from the ECMWF web site.
FSU's experimental hurricane forecast page (CMC, ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, HWRF, and NAVGEM models)
NOAA's HFIP model comparison page (GFS, ECMWF, FIM, FIM9, UKMET, and CMC models.)
Experimental HFIP models
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... commenttop
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) set a new record in 2012 for accuracy of their 1, 2, 3, and 4-day Atlantic tropical cyclone track forecasts, but had almost no skill making intensity forecasts, according to the 2012 National Hurricane Center Forecast Verification Report, issued in March 2013. The new records for track accuracy were set despite the fact that the season’s storms were harder than average to forecast. The average error in a 1-day forecast was 46 miles, and was 79 miles for 2 days, 116 miles for 3 days, 164 miles for 4 days, and 224 miles for 5 days. The official track forecast had a westward bias of 10 - 17 miles for 1 - 3 day forecasts (i.e., the official forecast tended to fall to the west of the verifying position), and was 38 and 75 miles too far to the northeast for the 4- and 5-day forecasts, respectively.
NHC Intensity Forecasts: Little Improvement Since 1990
Official NHC intensity forecasts did better than usual in 2012, and had errors lower than the 5-year average error for 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5-day forecasts. However, 2012's storms were easier to predict than usual, due to due to a lack of rapidly intensifying hurricanes. These rapid intensifiers are typically the source of the largest forecast errors. The skill of official NHC 24-hour intensity forecasts made in 2012 for the Atlantic basin were only about 15% better than a "no-skill" forecast; 2, 3, 4, and 5-day intensity forecasts had no skill.
Which Track Model Should You Trust?
As usual, in 2012 the official NHC forecast for Atlantic storms was almost as good as or better than any individual computer models--though NOAA's GFS model did slightly better than the NHC official forecast at 12, 24, and 48-hour periods, and the European model forecast was slightly better at 12-hour forecasts. Despite all the attention given to how the European Center (ECMWF) model outperformed the GFS model for Hurricane Sandy's track at long ranges, the GFS model actually outperformed the European model in 2012 when summing up all track forecasts made for all Atlantic named storms. This occurred, in part, because the European model made a few disastrously bad forecasts for Tropical Storm Debby when it was in the Gulf of Mexico and steering currents were weak. For several runs, the model predicted a Texas landfall, but Debby ended up moving east-northeast to make a Northwest Florida landfall, like the GFS model had predicted. However, the best-performing model averaged over the past three years has been the European Center model, with the GFS model a close second. Wunderground provides a web page with computer model forecasts for many of the best-performing track models used to predict hurricane tracks. The European Center does not permit public display of tropical storm positions from their hurricane tracking module of their model, so we are unable to put ECMWF forecasts on this page. Here are some of the better models NHC regularly looks at:
ECMWF: The European Center's global forecast model
GFS: NOAA's global forecast model
NOGAPS: The Navy's global forecast model (now defunct, replaced by the NAVGEM model in 2013)
UKMET: The United Kingdom Met Office's global forecast model
GFDL: The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's hurricane model, initialized using GFS data
HWRF: The intended successor for the the GFDL hurricane model, also initialized using GFS data
CMC: The Canadian GEM model
BAMM: The very old Beta and Advection Model (Medium layer), which is still useful at longer ranges
If one averages together the track forecasts from the first six of these models, the NHC official forecast will rarely depart much from it. As seen in Figure 3, the HWRF and UKMET were well behind the ECMWF and GFS in forecast accuracy in 2012, but were still respectable. The simple BAMM model did well at 3, 4, and 5-day forecasts. The GFDL and CMC models did quite poorly compared to the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and HWRF. The Navy's NOGAPS model also did poorly in 2012, and has been retired. Its replacement for 2013 is called the NAVGEM model.
Which Intensity Model Should You Trust?
Don't trust any of them. NHC has two main statistical intensity models, LGEM and DSHP (the SHIPS model with inland decay of a storm factored in.) In addition, four dynamical models that are also use to track hurricanes--the GFS, ECMWF, HWRF, and GFDL models--all offer intensity forecasts. With the exception of the GFS model, which had a skill just 5% better than a "no-skill" intensity forecast for predictions going out 36 hours, all of these models had no skill in their intensity forecasts during 2012. The ECMWF and HWRF models were the worst models for intensity forecasts of 3, 4, and 5 days, with a skill of 20% - 60% lower than a "no-skill" forecast. The LGEM model, which was a decent intensity model in 2011, tanked badly in 2012 and had near-zero skill. The only model that was any good in 2012 was the IVCN "consensus" model, which averages together the intensity forecasts of two or more of the intensity models such as LGEM, GFDL, HWRF, and DSHP.
Some Promising Models From the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)
Last year was the fourth year of a ten-year project, called the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP), aimed at reducing hurricane track and intensity errors by 50%. The new experimental models from HFIP generally performed poorly in 2012. However, the new FIM9 15-km global model was competitive with the ECMWF and GFS models for track, and the new CIRA Statistical Intensity Consensus (SPC3) model for intensity performed better than many of the traditional intensity models.
For those interested in learning more about the hurricane forecast models, NOAA has a 1-hour training video (updated for 2011.) Additional information about the guidance models used at the NHC can be found at NHC and the NOAA/HRD Hurricane FAQ.
Sources of Model Data
You can view 7-day ECMWF and 16-day GFS forecasts on wunderground's wundermap with the model layer turned on.
Longer ten-day ECMWF forecasts are available from the ECMWF web site.
FSU's experimental hurricane forecast page (CMC, ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, HWRF, and NAVGEM models)
NOAA's HFIP model comparison page (GFS, ECMWF, FIM, FIM9, UKMET, and CMC models.)
Experimental HFIP models
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
I remember Debby....the GFS got lucky with that one since every other model was pointing left and it was the only right solution. Every blind squirrel gets a nut sometimes.. 
I would like to see how the GFS is doing in 2013 and the EURO. I think both are having issues....IMO
06Z NAVGEM.....many runs in a row with something pulling off SA at 144hr
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
I would like to see how the GFS is doing in 2013 and the EURO. I think both are having issues....IMO
06Z NAVGEM.....many runs in a row with something pulling off SA at 144hr
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
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caneman
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Rock, I wouldn't call Debby lucky. Living here on the West coast of Florida. It was stunningly accurate. In fact has been the most accurate I believe in the last couple of years. You're just gonna have to swallow the pill. Euro has been off it's game 
As aside. How is considered that the NHC is accurate this year? I was on a cruise supposed to head to Turks and Caicos. our ship got re-routed because Chantel was supposed to head there. Of course, that never happened and Chantel fell apart. Are they not getting dinged for that track inaccuracy because Chantel ended up falling apart?
As aside. How is considered that the NHC is accurate this year? I was on a cruise supposed to head to Turks and Caicos. our ship got re-routed because Chantel was supposed to head there. Of course, that never happened and Chantel fell apart. Are they not getting dinged for that track inaccuracy because Chantel ended up falling apart?
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
caneman wrote:Rock, I wouldn't call Debby lucky. Living here on the West coast of Florida. It was stunningly accurate. In fact has been the most accurate I believe in the last couple of years. You're just gonna have to swallow the pill. Euro has been off it's game
As aside. How is considered that the NHC is accurate this year? I was on a cruise supposed to head to Turks and Caicos. our ship got re-routed because Chantel was supposed to head there. Of course, that never happened and Chantel fell apart. Are they not getting dinged for that track inaccuracy because Chantel ended up falling apart?
Didn't the GFS blow it with ISAAC later in the season? I recall it kept trying to show him going up east side of Florida or just east while the other models were going west in the northern gulf. And that was with a 'cane. Models hit and miss...
And what about Sandy? Didn't the GFS kept saying out to sea?
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caneman
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Ntxw wrote:caneman wrote:Rock, I wouldn't call Debby lucky. Living here on the West coast of Florida. It was stunningly accurate. In fact has been the most accurate I believe in the last couple of years. You're just gonna have to swallow the pill. Euro has been off it's game
As aside. How is considered that the NHC is accurate this year? I was on a cruise supposed to head to Turks and Caicos. our ship got re-routed because Chantel was supposed to head there. Of course, that never happened and Chantel fell apart. Are they not getting dinged for that track inaccuracy because Chantel ended up falling apart?
Didn't the GFS blow it with ISAAC later in the season? I recall it kept trying to show him going up east side of Florida or just east while the other models were going west in the northern gulf. And that was with a 'cane. Models hit and miss...
And what about Sandy? Didn't the GFS kept saying out to sea?
Well, I don't have the hard facts. I'm sure someone can post a link. This is just going on memory which isn't always a good thing but I'm pretty sure I saw a link after last year that said GFS was the most accurate. Truth be told, it doesn't seem like any models are doing that good in this oddball season so far. Are they?
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Stormlover2012
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Lol gfs got real lucky, I mean lets be realistic here. Gfs isn't that great, euro is usually is the barry bonds of models!!! And that means the best model
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wxman57
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Euro is definitely not best with all storms. GFS is certainly better with some storms. The hard part is determining which is right before we know the eventual outcome. 
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
caneman wrote:Well, I don't have the hard facts. I'm sure someone can post a link. This is just going on memory which isn't always a good thing but I'm pretty sure I saw a link after last year that said GFS was the most accurate. Truth be told, it doesn't seem like any models are doing that good in this oddball season so far. Are they?
I don't think any model is really shining this year, but then again there hasn't really been much for them to stick it to one another yet. GFS did do a good job showing development (Dorian) up until a few days. Euro naturally has a distaste for anything in the lower latitudes
. The only thing I've picked up over the years is that when you start seeing consistently something big on the euro you know it's going to be big, compared to the GFS showing monsters. And the Canadian well...it blows up everything so it has to be right when they do form .
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caneman
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Euro is definitely not best with all storms. GFS is certainly better with some storms. The hard part is determining which is right before we know the eventual outcome.
Amen to that. Most of the model this year have shown weak development, no development or storms falling apart. So, in fact, maybe they've been more accurate (based on what they have to work with) than we are giving them credit for.
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Stormlover2012
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
We all know Miguel Cabrera is the best in baseball he can't go 4 for 4 every game!!! Euro is most consistent.
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cycloneye
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
This is what Dr Masters said this morning about the reliable models GFS/ECMWF.
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today, and none of the reliable models for tropical cyclone formation is predicting development during the coming seven days.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
he also said that the EURO the past 3 years has been better than the GFS if you average it out. GFS pulling Debbie out of its behind last year gave it an edge over the EURO....really, they all stink this year so far...I just want a develope storm, with an eye, so I can track it....even if its out to sea...is that asking to much?
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Hybridstorm_November2001
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
ROCK wrote:....I just want a develope storm, with an eye, so I can track it....even if its out to sea...is that asking to much?
apparently
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CalmBeforeStorm
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Stormlover2012 wrote:Lol gfs got real lucky, I mean lets be realistic here. Gfs isn't that great, euro is usually is the barry bonds of models!!! And that means the best model
The NHC's Official forecast is the most accurate because they take a blend of all the models. Using one over the others is just not smart or accurate.
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caneman
Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
Well, we all have our opinions on which model is best. I personally like a blend. Not happy with any of the models this year since my trip to Turks and Caicos was re-routed due the Chantel modeling. Chantel fell apart and stayed well South of there anyhow.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
12Z NAVGEM...still something coming off SA...
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
12Z GFS...
http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical
12Z GFS...
http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php
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tolakram
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
12Z Euro has a low at 120H near Cape Verde and maintains a weak low pressure area through 240H.
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
tolakram wrote:12Z Euro has a low at 120H near Cape Verde and maintains a weak low pressure area through 240H.
thats the guy over Africa....Luis has a thread on it....
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Re: Global Model Runs Discussion
wxman57 wrote:Euro is definitely not best with all storms. GFS is certainly better with some storms. The hard part is determining which is right before we know the eventual outcome.
That is why I do not put stock on one forecast model. I like using many.
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